Pace and Draw Angles

Pace Forecast: Strong

Draw Bias: Against high numbers – lower to mid draws typically fare better over this trip at Newbury.

Pace Hint: A strong end-to-end gallop is forecast, which statistically disadvantages those ridden prominently here. CHANNAGIDE (closer) may be favoured over BOWNDER (presses pace).



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Main Contenders (Timeform Adjusted Ratings + Profile Notes)

CHANNAGIDE (USA) – TFR 82 | Marco Botti | Oisin Murphy

Improved for switch to handicaps when a close fourth at Wolverhampton on UK return. Will be suited by strong pace and stiffer test. Low draw + top rider + finishing style = solid profile.
Rating: 8.5/10
Likely well handicapped – leading claims if reproducing latest run.


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BLUE TEMPUS (FR) – TFR 79 | Alan King | Hollie Doyle

Improved when second at Beverley on seasonal return after being gelded. Open to more over this trip and looks on the up.
Rating: 8/10
Live chance from good draw. Solid place credentials with upward curve.


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SILENT AFFAIR (IRE) – TFR 75p | John Butler | Sean Levey

Improving filly who shaped well when second at Wolverhampton. Bred to appreciate this trip and further. Likeable profile for low-grade 3yo handicaps.
Rating: 7.5/10
Could progress again and sneak into the frame.


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BOWNDER (IRE) – TFR 79 | Jonathan Portman | Joe Leavy (3)

Dual winner as a 2yo but has looked vulnerable in stronger races this spring. On a fair mark but pace/setup may be against him.
Rating: 7/10
Each-way shout, though likely to be compromised by race shape.


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GLENRIDDING – TFR 77 | Daniel & Claire Kubler | Jim Crowley

Yarmouth winner last season. Fair effort at Chelmsford latest but has yet to fully fire this year. May be reaching his ceiling.
Rating: 6.5/10
Respectable but doesn’t appeal as the most progressive.


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DIVOT – TFR 74 | William Knight | Cieren Fallon

Shaped better than finishing position last time after a break. Bred to come into his own over further, and 1m2f a positive move.
Rating: 6.5/10
Stayer in the making – could improve for the step up.


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HAMDANI CRUISER (USA) – TFR 76 | James Horton | Daniel Muscutt

Stayed on late on handicap debut and likely to be suited by the stronger tempo. May need further in time.
Rating: 6.5/10
Interesting outsider if continuing upward curve.


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CARDEROCK (IRE) – TFR 67 | Richard Hannon | Pat Dobbs

Modest form at 2 and beaten a long way on nursery debut. Yard in form but hard to recommend off current evidence.
Rating: 5.5/10
Needs to show much more – look for signs of revival.


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AZOOZI, SPLIT SILK, ZARAKERJACK, OLIVIA JANE, LOVE YOU BACK, RORY’S GOLD

All arrive with modest form and limited forward momentum. Difficult to recommend unless market support emerges late.
Rating: 4.5–5.5/10 (range)
Only mild interest for longshot place angles.


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Trainer Notes

Marco Botti in solid recent form and has booked Oisin Murphy for CHANNAGIDE.

Alan King and John Butler both have improving 3yos in BLUE TEMPUS and SILENT AFFAIR respectively.

William Knight profitable to follow at flat meetings with solo runners.



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Notable Trends

Prominent runners struggle at 10f on Newbury’s round course in strongly-run handicaps.

This race has seen two double-digit SP winners in past three runnings – value can emerge.

Market for lightly-raced, well-bred types (like BLUE TEMPUS) often tells a story here.



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Each-Way Angle

Yes – 15 runners.

DIVOT looks a viable place angle at a price.

HAMDANI CRUISER and SILENT AFFAIR have upward potential and could run well.



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Layoff Watch

CARDEROCK (260 days) – off since August 2024, poor reappearance.

LOVE YOU BACK (205 days) – gelded, but modest form.

SPLIT SILK (31 days) – failed to fire off break; market may guide.



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Tissue Estimate

Horse Tissue Odds

CHANNAGIDE 3/1
BLUE TEMPUS 4/1
SILENT AFFAIR 6/1
BOWNDER 9/1
DIVOT 12/1
HAMDANI CRUISER 14/1
GLENRIDDING 16/1
CARDEROCK 20/1
OLIVIA JANE 20/1
ZARAKERJACK 25/1
AZOOZI 25/1
RORY’S GOLD 28/1
SPLIT SILK 33/1
LOVE YOU BACK 50/1



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Summary

CHANNAGIDE brings strong credentials with a strong pace setup, Oisin Murphy booked, and a progressive profile. BLUE TEMPUS appeals as an improver and SILENT AFFAIR is another capable of better. DIVOT and HAMDANI CRUISER appeal for longshot places. Several runners return off layoffs – check for market support late.