Race Conditions

Race: SKY SPORTS RACING ASTON PARK STAKES (Group 3)

Time: 12:50

Course: Newbury

Distance: 1m4f (12f), Class 1, 4yo+

Surface: Turf

Going: Good (Good to Firm in places)

Runners: 8 declared

Pace Forecast: Very Weak – likely a tactical affair, favouring those with a turn of foot and tactical speed. No natural front-runner in the field.

Draw Bias: None noted over this trip on a galloping track like Newbury.



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Strongest Contenders

1. AL AASY (126) – 9/10

Course winner with prior success in this race (2021).

Returned from a layoff to win the Gordon Richards Stakes (10f, Gd/Sft) showing usual smooth-travelling style.

Handles all ground and retains ability at 8yo.

Likely to be dropped out and delivered late; weak pace not ideal.

Trainer William Haggas has 2 winners in last 10 renewals and a strong 23% strike rate at Newbury.


2. SUNWAY (127) – 8/10

Classic-placed in both Irish Derby and St Leger in 2024.

Needed the run when third behind Divina Grace on reappearance in John Porter Stakes here.

Stays further and will be suited by a stronger gallop.

Should improve from last outing and goes well on all ground. Trainer form solid.


3. EL CORDOBES (123) – 7/10

Unexposed 4yo from Charlie Appleby, who often targets this race type with progressive types.

Impressive last time at Newmarket (12f handicap) when dominating from the front.

Has a turn of foot and may control the race if allowed to dictate.

Smart breeding and open to further progress at Group level.



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Main Dangers

4. COURAGE MON AMI (136) – 6/10

Group 1 Gold Cup winner at Royal Ascot in 2023.

Missed all of 2024 and returns over 1m4f – well short of his best trip (stays 2½m).

Would ideally want a stronger pace and longer distance.

May need the run but carries the class edge if sharp enough.


5. KING’S GAMBIT (126) – 7/10

Won a hot handicap here last season and was far from disgraced in Qatar in February.

Blinkered for the first time (was cheekpieced) and gelded since.

Ryan Moore booked, and has tactical versatility.

May lack the raw gears of the principals at this level, but not without a chance.


6. TABLETALK (124) – 7/10

Solid second in the John Porter here last month, just touched off by Divina Grace.

Stays well, has improved steadily, and acts on fast ground.

Could run into a place again if it turns tactical.



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Interesting Outsiders

7. EYDON (121) – 5/10

Has ability but consistently fails to win and can be slowly away.

Has form with some decent types but lacks a recent win.

Andrew Balding is in form, and Oisin Murphy rides well here (20% strike rate), but he has a bit to prove now.


8. RAJA RAJA (98) – 3/10

Handicap winner at Southwell in December but exposed as below Group class.

154 days off, 4th trainer, no Group form, and unlikely to trouble the judge.



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Trends and Trainer Notes

William Haggas has trained 2 winners in the last 10 renewals (Al Aasy himself in 2021).

Past winners tend to be aged 4 or 5, and all had run that season. Al Aasy won off a break in 2021 but was a 4yo then.

Gosden (Courage Mon Ami) and Appleby (El Cordobes) both have good records in Group 3 staying races.



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Ratings Summary & Marks Out of 10

Horse Adjusted Rating Trainer Days Off Market Watch Mark

AL AASY 126 W. Haggas (hot) 22 2nd run back 9/10
SUNWAY 127 D. Menuisier 35 Reappearance done 8/10
EL CORDOBES 123 C. Appleby (hot) 14 Improving 7/10
KING’S GAMBIT 126 H. Charlton 90 Watch market 7/10
COURAGE MON AMI 136 Gosdens (hot) 631 Class angle 6/10
TABLETALK 124 T. Clover 35 Close last run 7/10
EYDON 121 A. Balding 106 Usually plugs on 5/10
RAJA RAJA 98 D. Simcock 154 Outclassed 3/10



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Each-Way Angles

With 8 runners declared, E/W terms apply.

EL CORDOBES, TABLETALK and SUNWAY are viable E/W options with solid recent form and pace adaptability.



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Tissue Estimate (fair odds)

Horse Estimated Odds

AL AASY 11/4
SUNWAY 4/1
EL CORDOBES 9/2
KING’S GAMBIT 6/1
TABLETALK 15/2
COURAGE MON AMI 10/1
EYDON 18/1
RAJA RAJA 66/1



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Note: Keep a close eye on market moves for COURAGE MON AMI (631-day absence), KING’S GAMBIT (off 90 days and gelded), and EYDON (106 days off) – any strength could suggest fitness is not an issue.