Race Conditions

Race: READ MEG NICHOLLS’ BLOG AT betmgm.co.uk HANDICAP

Class: 3 Handicap

Time: 13:05

Course: Newmarket (Rowley)

Distance: 7f

Surface: Turf

Going: Good

Age Group: 4yo+

Field Size: 9 runners

Pace Forecast: Weak – a steady early gallop is likely

Draw Bias: Against mid draws – slight edge to low and high numbers



—

Pace/Draw Angles

Leadman and Vicario are likely to race close to the pace.

Waleefy and Dark Tornado could be well positioned to take advantage if the pace is steady.

Madame De Sevigne and Harvard Sound may be inconvenienced if dropped in and forced to quicken late.



—

Strongest Contenders

1. WALEEFY (105) – 8.5/10

4yo from William Haggas’ in-form yard; progressive profile in 2024 with wins at Doncaster and Newmarket.

Shaped as if needing run at Goodwood (sharp track, 6f), now back to 7f on galloping ground which suits better.

Has tongue tie retained; lightly raced and still open to improvement off 87.

21% strike rate for Haggas at 7–10f trips.


2. STERLING KNIGHT (104) – 8/10

Consistent this season with three solid AW efforts and shaped nicely when 4th here last time.

Course form is a positive and he acts on all ground.

Has had a wind op in the past and usually runs his race.


3. MADAME DE SEVIGNE (106) – 7.5/10

Two-time CD winner in 2024, including in soft conditions.

Didn’t handle Doncaster on reappearance but is back at her best track.

Has a quirky head carriage but clearly has ability and responds to pressure.



—

Main Dangers

4. LEADMAN (102) – 7/10

Changed yards from Balding to O’Meara and ran well both starts in 2025.

Likes to race prominently and may be favoured by the likely slow pace.

9f may suit better long term, but no reason he can’t be involved off 83.


5. DARK TORNADO (98) – 6.5/10

Improved to win a Leicester maiden last week; may progress again.

Now rated 90, which demands more, but is unexposed.

Could sneak into the frame if things fall his way.



—

Interesting Outsiders

6. PERSUASION (103) – 6/10

Veteran type who won well at Musselburgh in April but was held at Chester.

8yo now, and may need a strongly run race to show best.


7. HARVARD SOUND (103) – 5/10

Lightly raced but disappointed at Southwell in January.

Tom Clover has a good record with first-time headgear types. Market check advised.


8. VICARIO (102) – 4.5/10

Off since November and was well beaten in two Listed races to end 2024.

Previous Haydock win showed promise, but needs a revival after 189-day break.


9. PHYSIQUE (104) – NR

Now a Non-Runner



—

Ratings & Marks Out of 10

Horse Adjusted Rating Trainer Days Off Note Mark

Waleefy 105 W. Haggas (hot) 15 Reappearance; track suits 8.5/10
Sterling Knight 104 E. Dunlop 14 In good form 8/10
Madame De Sevigne 106 R. Eddery 48 CD winner; quirky but capable 7.5/10
Leadman 102 D. O’Meara 15 Consistent; pace-suited 7/10
Dark Tornado 98 D. Quinn 7 Up in class; improving 6.5/10
Persuasion 103 D & N Barron 8 Needs luck and tempo 6/10
Harvard Sound 103 T. Clover 122 Headgear switch; not dismissed 5/10
Vicario 102 E. Walker (hot) 189 Layoff; needs revival 4.5/10



—

Each-Way Angles (9 runners)

Madame De Sevigne, Sterling Knight, and Leadman appeal for E/W purposes, given their current marks, profile strength, and suitability to the likely pace shape.



—

Tissue Estimate

Horse Fair Odds

Waleefy 3/1
Madame De Sevigne 9/2
Sterling Knight 11/2
Leadman 6/1
Dark Tornado 9/1
Persuasion 12/1
Harvard Sound 14/1
Vicario 16/1



—

Notes

WALEEFY looks the solid option returning to a track he should relish, though the tempo will be key to how this unfolds.

Monitor the market for Harvard Sound (122 days off, first-time headgear) and Vicario (189 days off) – both could shape better than form suggests if primed.