Race Conditions

Race: JCB Handicap (Class 4)

Time: 13:40

Course: Newmarket (Rowley Mile)

Distance: 7f

Age: 3yo only

Surface: Turf

Going: Good

Rating Band: 0–85

Runners: 9

Pace Forecast: Even

Draw Bias: Slight bias against middle stalls



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Pace & Draw Angles

Prominent racers usually fare best over this 7f trip at Newmarket when the pace is steady.

SAXONIA is expected to race forward and may be well positioned.

ARABIAN LEOPARD, held up and drawn mid-to-high, could be at a slight tactical disadvantage unless a stronger gallop emerges.



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Strongest Contenders

1. FONDO BLANCO (99p) – 9/10

Roger Varian-trained colt with strong maiden/novice form.

Narrowly denied off a 7-month break at Doncaster, shaping like one ready to win.

Makes handicap debut off 85, which looks fair.

Will stay 7f, and 19% strike rate for Varian with handicap debutants is notable.


2. ART MARKET (97) – 8.5/10

Gelded over the winter and returned an improved performer to win over C&D last month.

Haggas yard in excellent form; Cieren Fallon retains the ride.

3 from 8 overall and likely still well treated despite a 6lb rise.


3. WE DARE TO DREAM (93) – 7.5/10

Tough and improving, made all to score at Beverley latest (7.4f, good to firm).

Carries top weight (OR 88) and steps into deeper waters here.

Has pace to get across and may be helped by even fractions, but vulnerable to improvers.



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Main Dangers

4. ARABIAN LEOPARD (99p) – 7/10

Shaped well on handicap debut at Yarmouth when short of room late.

Jamie Spencer booked, and she’s open to improvement off 75.

Might be better suited by a stronger gallop or more prominent ride.


5. ORIGINAL OUTLAW (90) – 6.5/10

Lightly raced; placed in two strong nurseries last year.

Gelded over the winter and returns off 268 days.

Has scope but was well beaten at York and needs to bounce back.



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Interesting Outsiders

6. SAXONIA (97) – 6/10

Typically races prominently and may enjoy the pace setup here.

Has solid AW form but now back on turf. Worth monitoring market signals.


7. SPIRIT OF LEROS (85+) – 5.5/10

Returned to form behind We Dare To Dream at Beverley and could progress second up.

Has won here before; Marco Botti often profitable with lone runners at meetings.


8. GRISELDA (93) – 5/10

Looked promising last summer but hasn’t recaptured that form since.

Needs a big bounce back but mark is easing.


9. MISS COLLADA (93) – 4.5/10

Multiple wins on AW in 2024 but recent turf form is modest.

Hannon has a decent record with first-time headgear but hard to fancy on recent evidence.



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Ratings Summary

Horse Adjusted Rating Trainer Days Off Draw Mark

FONDO BLANCO 99p R. Varian (hot) 22 9 9/10
ART MARKET 97 W. Haggas (hot) 30 8 8.5/10
WE DARE TO DREAM 93 D. O’Meara 12 3 7.5/10
ARABIAN LEOPARD 99p D. Simcock 16 4 7/10
ORIGINAL OUTLAW 90 R. Beckett (hot) 268 7 6.5/10
SAXONIA 97 C. Johnston 12 1 6/10
SPIRIT OF LEROS 85+ M. Botti 12 5 5.5/10
GRISELDA 93 G. Scott 42 6 5/10
MISS COLLADA 93 R. Hannon (hot) 12 2 4.5/10



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Each-Way Angles

With 9 runners, E/W terms apply.

ART MARKET and ARABIAN LEOPARD are likely candidates for place value, with SAXONIA offering interest at a bigger price if controlling the pace.



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Tissue Estimate

Horse Estimated Odds

Fondo Blanco 3/1
Art Market 7/2
We Dare To Dream 5/1
Arabian Leopard 11/2
Original Outlaw 10/1
Saxonia 12/1
Spirit Of Leros 16/1
Griselda 20/1
Miss Collada 25/1



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Market Watch

Original Outlaw (268 days off) and Arabian Leopard (lightly raced, on 2nd start in handicap) are of most interest if strong in the market.

Miss Collada tries blinkers for the first time – Richard Hannon has profit stats with such runners.