Pace and Tactical Angle

The race is forecast to be run at a weak tempo. Despite this, Navan over this trip has historically favoured hold-up horses, which may compromise those ridden forward. That could place a tactical disadvantage on Medici Venus, who typically races handy, and boost the claims of Butterfly Wings, who looks suited by a steady pace and step up in trip.


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Strongest Contenders (Timeform Adjusted Ratings)

Butterfly Wings (104p) – Aidan O’Brien’s filly has progressed steadily and ran out a clear-cut winner at Leopardstown last weekend, shaping as if the extra distance will suit. Given her pedigree (out of a sister to Giant’s Causeway) and the manner of that success, she looks the likeliest improver. O’Brien has won this race four times since 2019 and has a 33% strike rate at Navan since 2021.

Carmers (101p) – Showed a determined attitude to win on debut at Ballinrobe over 1m5f in blinkers. Likely to improve significantly with that experience behind her. Paddy Twomey’s only runner here and his record when sending one horse to a flat meeting is notable.

Delta (98p) – Runner-up to the promising Roosevelt at Leopardstown last week on first start with a tongue-tie. Bred to excel over this sort of trip and represents a yard that excels with improving middle-distance 3yos. Respectable profile.



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Main Dangers and Outsiders

Medici Venus (100) – Consistent and battle-hardened, but found a few too strong in the Salsabil and Blue Wind Stakes. The trip may help, but others hold stronger profiles for progression. Vulnerable if the leaders overdo it.

What’s Your Game (97) – Improved to win a soft-ground Cork handicap over 1½m. This is a step up in class but he’s unexposed and could be an each-way player if the race turns tactical.

Umala (92p) – Dundalk maiden winner who shaped as though further will suit. However, she’s untested on turf and might need to step up considerably on bare form.

Bonnie Moon (90p) – Stayed on from the rear over 9.5f at Gowran. Stepping up sharply in trip, and her profile suggests stamina should suit. Could be a surprise package with improvement to come.



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Trainer Trends

Aidan O’Brien – 4 wins in last 7 runnings (including with Peking Opera, Sir Lucan, and Western Australia). Strong hand again via Butterfly Wings and Medici Venus.

Paddy Twomey – Profitable to follow when running just one per meeting (+£11.39). Carmers could be well-placed.



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Runner Ratings (out of 10)

Butterfly Wings – 9

Carmers – 8

Delta – 8

Medici Venus – 7

What’s Your Game – 6

Bonnie Moon – 6

Umala – 5



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Layoff Watch & Market Note

All bar Carmers, Delta, and Butterfly Wings are returning from breaks over 40 days. Any significant market support or drift, particularly for Medici Venus, should be closely monitored given O’Brien’s form and the filly’s busier spring.


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Tissue Estimate (100% book)

Butterfly Wings – 15/8

Carmers – 4/1

Delta – 9/2

Medici Venus – 6/1

What’s Your Game – 10/1

Bonnie Moon – 12/1

Umala – 14/1



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This Listed contest may revolve around Butterfly Wings, who shaped strongly last time and hails from a yard with an outstanding record in the race. Carmers and Delta are the main dangers based on profile and recent form, while Bonnie Moon and What’s Your Game represent dark horses at longer odds.