Pace and Tactical Angle

This is forecast to be a very steadily-run race, which could prove a disadvantage for those who like to press or force the pace. On that basis, the chances of Dignam—who typically goes forward—may be compromised. Conversely, Light As Air, who is generally ridden patiently, may benefit most from how this is likely to unfold.


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Strongest Contenders (Timeform Adjusted Ratings)

Light As Air (99p) – An eye-catcher at Leopardstown behind a smart stablemate on handicap debut over this trip. With a strong staying pedigree (half-brother to St Leger winner Continuous), he’s bred to thrive as distances increase. Represents Aidan O’Brien, who is in red-hot form and excels with lightly-raced 3yos in premier handicaps. The pace scenario may favour him too.

Dakota Blue (92p) – A well-bred type who got off the mark over C&D last month on return from a gelding operation and 6-month break. Likely to improve again, particularly given the style of that win (travelled well and quickened smartly). Stays well and the yard has a solid record in spring handicaps.

Dahlia Noir (97) – Scored last time in a big-field Gowran maiden and had shaped encouragingly in a Leopardstown handicap prior. The Donnacha O’Brien yard has been gradually warming up and this filly has an upwardly mobile profile.



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Other Runners of Note

Dignam (97) – Did too much too soon in a Naas handicap on seasonal debut and may come forward from that. That said, the expected steady pace won’t play to his strengths, and he’s yet to confirm stamina for the full 10f+. Worth noting he’s from the Joseph O’Brien yard, who also run Kibris.

Kibris (92) – A wide-margin maiden winner over a mile at the Curragh on debut last autumn. However, hasn’t built on that since and looked short of stamina last time over 10.5f on soft. Question mark on trip and how well he truly stays.

Sunriseontheboyne (98) – Solid performer on AW but has shown limitations in stronger turf handicaps. May get an uncontested lead but looks vulnerable late, particularly with the stiff uphill finish.

Heishybrid (96) – Low mileage filly who may need more time or a drop in grade. Beaten 8 lengths on seasonal reappearance and remains unproven over this trip.



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Trainer/Jockey Notes

Aidan O’Brien – Sends just one: Light As Air, who looks laid out for this.

W. M. Lordan – 37% strike rate on favourites, again booked for Light As Air.

J P Murtagh – Dakota Blue represents a stable in form and has a progressive profile.



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Runner Ratings (out of 10)

Light As Air – 9

Dakota Blue – 8

Dahlia Noir – 7.5

Dignam – 7

Kibris – 6.5

Sunriseontheboyne – 6

Heishybrid – 5



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Layoff Watch & Market Cues

Only Dakota Blue, Dahlia Noir, and Sunriseontheboyne arrive match-fit within the past month. Light As Air’s Leopardstown return was after 5 months off, and improvement is likely second time up. Watch the market closely for any strength behind Kibris, who has hinted at better in the past but hasn’t confirmed it.


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Tissue Estimate (100% book)

Light As Air – 15/8

Dakota Blue – 3/1

Dahlia Noir – 5/1

Dignam – 6/1

Kibris – 10/1

Sunriseontheboyne – 12/1

Heishybrid – 14/1



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Verdict:
This looks a good opportunity for Light As Air, who shaped best at Leopardstown and has the race run-style and pedigree to progress past this mark. Dakota Blue rates the chief danger with a likeable profile, while Dahlia Noir brings solid recent form. A slow pace could undermine Dignam’s chances despite his ability.