Race Conditions & Pace/Draw Angles

This 5f sprint is restricted to 3-y-o handicappers rated 68 or below. The pace forecast is weak, and those held up or needing a strong gallop (e.g. Toolatetonegotiate) may find the set-up less favourable. There is no clear draw bias at this straight turf track, though position in-running may prove more crucial than stall number.

The likely front-runner is SANDSCREENDELIVERD, while several (e.g. GHOSTMAN, TOOLATETONEGOTIATE, HELLO LUNA) have been ridden patiently in recent starts.


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Strongest Contenders

HELLO LUNA (FR) (TFR 77) – Lightly raced and improving; shaped nicely in a Windsor handicap last time, making her effort too soon and still beaten only 1¼ lengths. Visor seemed to help, and Rossa Ryan retains the ride. Drops back in trip but has the highest Timeform rating and looks capable of further progress. Trainer Jonathan Portman does well with this type. Rating: 8/10

GHOSTMAN (TFR 78) – Absent 169 days but shaped like a winner-in-waiting last backend, notably when second to Bow Street at Newcastle. The weak pace forecast should play to his strengths if he can settle handier. Worth monitoring for market strength off the layoff. Rating: 7.5/10

TOOLATETONEGOTIATE (TFR 77) – Ultra-consistent profile; runner-up three times this year, including to Kinetic Force at Bath. May not be favoured by today’s pace scenario, but a low draw and staying power make him a key player. Rating: 7.5/10


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Main Dangers

VIRTUE TEMPERANCE (IRE) (TFR 75) – Could be under the radar after an eyecatching Windsor run on reappearance. Held up and not given a hard time when denied a clear run late. Brighton nursery winner last autumn and could be sharper now. Rating: 7/10

SHE WENT WHOOSH (IRE) (TFR 74) – Got off the mark here in April, beating Watkins. Flopped at Brighton since but that was a deeper race and came soon after the win. Has shown speed and consistency over 5f. Rating: 6.5/10


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Interesting Outsiders / Profiles to Monitor

SANDSCREENDELIVERD (TFR 76) – Ex-Jamie Osborne runner, shaped as if needing run on return from 4-month break. Connections apply a tongue tie for the first time on turf. Shown glimpses of ability and will likely lead; the lone pace angle gives him tactical value. Rating: 6.5/10

WATKINS (TFR 75) – Ex-Boughey. Often races freely and is hard to win with, though he did chase home She Went Whoosh in April. Not out of this if settling better. Rating: 6/10

FLICKA’S GIRL (TFR 74) – Largely exposed now. Back from 93 days off and has a new trainer (Michael Attwater) who’s currently out of form. Still, she won her maiden over 5f and is better than a 20/1 chance on best AW runs. Rating: 5.5/10


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Trends & Trainer Notes

No multiple past winners of this race.

HELLO LUNA holds the highest Timeform adjusted rating.

Portman and Cunha both tend to place their sprinters well in small fields.

Market support for Ghostman, returning after a break, would be significant.

Rossa Ryan has a 37% strike rate when riding favourites, worth noting if Hello Luna heads the betting.



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Marks out of 10

Horse TFR Rating

Hello Luna (FR) 77 8
Ghostman 78 7.5
Toolatetonegotiate 77 7.5
Virtue Temperance 75 7
She Went Whoosh 74 6.5
Sandscreendeliverd 76 6.5
Watkins 75 6
Flicka’s Girl 74 5.5



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Tissue Estimate (100%)

Hello Luna – 3/1

Ghostman – 4/1

Toolatetonegotiate – 9/2

Virtue Temperance – 11/2

She Went Whoosh – 13/2

Sandscreendeliverd – 10/1

Watkins – 12/1

Flicka’s Girl – 16/1



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Final Notes

This is a tight 0–68 3yo sprint with several unexposed or improving types. The weak pace scenario is likely to suit Hello Luna, Ghostman, and Virtue Temperance, who all have stamina for slightly further. The form horses from Bath and Lingfield (Toolatetonegotiate and She Went Whoosh) hold consistent profiles, though pace dynamics may test their finishing kick. Monitor market moves closely, especially for Ghostman, who returns from a 169-day break with blinkers reapplied.