Pace Forecast: Even
Draw Bias: Not significant over this trip and field size at Chepstow
Pace Note: The pace is expected to be even, though potentially contested. Connie’s Rose and Phoenix Beach look likeliest to go forward.


—

Runner-by-Runner Analysis (Timeform Ratings used):

ROSENPUR (GER) – TFR 94 – Rating: 8.5/10

Progressive profile on AW and turf. Produced a career-best when second at Chester (½L) last time despite being 3lb wrong at the weights. Adaptable with regard to pace, handles good to soft and Tapeta, and has a win over 5f. Comes here in peak condition with consistent form and a good turn of foot.

CONNIE’S ROSE – TFR 95 – Rating: 8/10

Six-time Chepstow winner who bounced back to form when a close third here over 6f last week. Likes to be prominent and should be well-positioned in a race lacking confirmed out-and-out trailblazers. Has worn cheekpieces/tongue tie of late and holds form when returning quickly. Solid course profile and trainer Grace Harris does well locally.

GLAMOROUS BREEZE – TFR 93 – Rating: 7/10

Back from 236 days off. Ended last season in solid form with a Bath win and a decent Wolverhampton third. Suited by 5f and acts on fast ground, but the long layoff means market support would be significant. Often not ideally placed in past runs, so may need luck with cover or an uncontested rail.

ECCLESIASTICAL – TFR 93 – Rating: 6.5/10

Won impressively at Lingfield in March but bombed next time and now with a new yard. Has tactical speed but might be best caught fresh. Trainer Lisa Williamson isn’t known for debut winners from new acquisitions, but he’s well-handicapped if rejuvenated. Market check essential.

JACQUELINA (IRE) – TFR 87 – Rating: 6/10

Won six races in 2024, including twice over this C&D. Shaped better at Newmarket last time (5th/9) and now back to her favoured venue. Still has something to prove against some classier rivals at this level, but could run into a place if continuing on the upward swing.

PHOENIX BEACH (IRE) – TFR ? – Rating: 5.5/10

Three-time winner this year but below form in both turf starts this spring. Found wanting over 6f last time. Down in trip and likely to be part of the pace early, but needs to show he can translate AW form to turf consistently. More exposed than some.


—

Trainer Notes & Market Watch:

No winning trainer trends are available for this race.

Watch the market for Glamorous Breeze returning off 236 days (may need the run or could be tuned up).

Ecclesiastical has changed yards – market support would be notable given the mixed form.

Connie’s Rose returned within 8 days of her last run – in-form sprinters running quickly again often hold condition well and this one has a good C&D profile.



—

Timeform Profile Highlights:

Rosenpur: “Best effort yet when second at Chester”; still on the up.

Connie’s Rose: “6 course wins”; just touched off latest; best form here.

Jacquelina: “Horse for course”; five wins in 2024; may now be working back to form.

Ecclesiastical: “Useful-looking”; best runs on the AW, but holds turf wins too.



—

Summary Ratings (Out of 10):

Horse Rating

Rosenpur 8.5
Connie’s Rose 8
Glamorous Breeze 7
Ecclesiastical 6.5
Jacquelina 6
Phoenix Beach 5.5



—

Tissue Price Estimate (Based on Adjusted Ratings, Form & Profiles):

Rosenpur – 15/8

Connie’s Rose – 9/4

Glamorous Breeze – 6/1

Ecclesiastical – 13/2

Jacquelina – 8/1

Phoenix Beach – 12/1



—

Conclusion:

Rosenpur arrives in excellent form and should be very competitive once more. Connie’s Rose, a proven Chepstow specialist, looks a serious danger if able to control things up front. Glamorous Breeze is a place player if ready after her absence, while Jacquelina and Ecclesiastical are not without hope. The market will be a crucial guide to fitness and intent, particularly for runners off breaks or changing stables.