Pace Forecast: Weak
Draw Bias: No confirmed bias in small fields over this trip
Pace Note: Hold-up types usually underperform over Chepstow’s 7f. In this weakly-run race, Marsh Benham and Power of Gold may struggle if positioned too far back. Believe You Me and Cooperation look better suited tactically.


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Contenders and Profiles (Timeform Ratings used):

COOPERATION (TFR 92) – 8.5/10

Won decisively off the same mark at Newmarket just five days ago in an apprentices’ race. Unpenalised and has won over both 6f and 7f. In-form and well-handicapped on paper. Can race close to the pace and has a strong recent figure. Looks to hold all the aces if reproducing.

BELIEVE YOU ME (TFR 86) – 7.5/10

Triple C&D winner and clearly enjoys Chepstow. Faded late on return after 7 months off and should come on for that. Tactically suited if ridden positively. Trainer is cold but jockey booking is notable. Market move would boost confidence.

MARSH BENHAM (TFR 85§) – 7/10

Won at 25/1 at Newbury last week in a race that fell ideally for him. Not always straightforward and doesn’t often back up wins. Best when the pace collapses – which may not happen here. Still, well treated and in form.

POWER OF GOLD (TFR 87) – 6.5/10

Shaped well two starts back at Pontefract but underwhelmed at Wetherby. Often trades short in-running without winning, so not one to rely on for resolution. Oisin Murphy rides, which is a positive, but he may need things to fall his way.

ULTRAMARINE (TFR 84) – 6.5/10

Consistent AW campaigner who ran respectably when third last time. Still has something to prove on turf in this context, but should be competitive. Wouldn’t want it too tactical and needs the gaps to appear.

SOI DAO (TFR 83) – 6/10

Had a good second at Bath two starts ago but was flat when stepped up in trip last time. Capable in her grade and acts on quick ground. Not especially progressive but could pick up a place if the pace holds up.

DIAMONDSINTHESAND (TFR 82) – 4.5/10

Usually runs well at Chepstow but was likely short of peak fitness returning from four months off. Low mark and could sneak a place if bouncing back, but needs everything to go right.

DOUBLE TIME (TFR ?) – 3/10

Has shown very little since joining current yard. Dropped a long way in the weights but hasn’t hinted at a revival. Market support would be surprising – best watched until signs of life appear.


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Trainer/Market Trends:

Cooperation (Michael Appleby) is unpenalised for his win and represents a yard adept at placing horses quickly under apprentices.

Heather Main is in poor form but Believe You Me is returning to a favoured track and could be sharper second-up.

Keep an eye on any support for Ultramarine switching back to turf and Diamondsinthesand, who often improves second-up.

Double Time needs a revival – any significant market support would be notable off such poor recent figures.



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Summary Ratings (Out of 10):

Horse Rating

Cooperation 8.5
Believe You Me 7.5
Marsh Benham 7
Power of Gold 6.5
Ultramarine 6.5
Soi Dao 6
Diamondsinthesand 4.5
Double Time 3



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Tissue Price Estimate:

Cooperation – 7/4

Believe You Me – 5/1

Marsh Benham – 6/1

Ultramarine – 13/2

Power of Gold – 7/1

Soi Dao – 10/1

Diamondsinthesand – 20/1

Double Time – 33/1



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Conclusion:

Cooperation is well placed to follow up his Newmarket success under identical conditions. Believe You Me is a major each-way player back at her favourite course and fitter now. Marsh Benham and Power of Gold are both capable but reliant on race shape, while Ultramarine could outrun odds if getting a tow into it. Market will be key for lower-rated runners like Diamondsinthesand and Double Time.