Pace Forecast: Even
Draw Bias: Slight high draw advantage at this trip
Pace Note: Hold-up types generally struggle here when the pace is steady. Sioux Eagle and Miss Gitana should be better positioned than deeper closers like Lady Kai.


—

Contender Analysis (Timeform Ratings used):

MISS GITANA (TFR 75) – 7.5/10

Back to the Flat after an eye-catching eighth at Navan where she had no room late. Well-treated off 69, and a sharper effort is expected now after a decent hurdles run at Downpatrick. Prominent running style will suit given course/pace profile. Each-way player.

EMPRESS ALMA (TFR 75) – 7.5/10

Lightly raced filly and progressive in 2024, winning 3 of 5, including a competitive Thurles handicap. Off 223 days but yard can ready them, and she stays well. Acts on all ground. Class angle here, but fitness must be taken on trust.

STAR OFFICIAL (TFR 75) – 7/10

Fit from a hurdles win and had useful Flat form in 2023 when just denied at Galway. Not fully exposed back on the level and likely stays this trip. Could go well if he handles this tighter test than Tramore.

SIOUX EAGLE (TFR 77) – 7/10

Course regular and ran respectably last time after a hurdling spell. Likely stays 2m and should be well positioned with pace and draw in his favour. Still a maiden on the Flat, but consistent and genuine.

DISCO BOY (TFR 77) – 6.5/10

Caught the eye from a poor position at Navan in a big-field handicap. That was only his second Flat run in a handicap and he should stay this trip well. Progressive profile but needs to back it up now.

LADY KAI (TFR 77) – 6.5/10

Consistent mare who won twice in 2024 and shaped fine when midfield at Navan. Drop back in trip here might suit, but pace setup less favourable if she’s dropped in. Place claims if she’s fit after the 210-day layoff.

PARTY DRESS (TFR 78) – 6.5/10

Has gone well fresh and was fifth in a hot Curragh handicap in March. Likely stays this trip, but latest hurdle run was disappointing. Often trades short in defeat and can flatter to deceive. That said, talent is there if she puts it all together.

GRACESOLUTION (TFR 76) – 6/10

Dual Dundalk scorer in 2025, most recently in March. Lesser turf record and was well beaten in a sole turf try last summer. Will need to prove herself away from the AW and isn’t obviously well treated.

DANCING STEVE (TFR 76) – 5.5/10

Lightly raced type who was consistent last backend on the AW but tailed off last time. Not proven at this trip and high draw unlikely to help. Trainer form and profile suggest watching brief for now.

INCHIQUIN STAR (TFR 74+) – 5.5/10

Returns just 9 days after a down-the-field effort at Roscommon. Useful over hurdles but Flat form has been modest and he has a bit to prove back at this level. Tongue tie off today – watching brief best.

PONS AELIUS (TFR ?) – 3.5/10

Rated higher in the UK, but form has tailed off since leaving Charlie Johnston. Beaten 29L last time and very hard to recommend without a significant revival. Likely to race forward, which may help, but needs major improvement.


—

Trainer Trends & Market Pointers:

Gavin Cromwell can ready a horse after a break – watch Empress Alma closely in the market.

Gordon Elliott has Miss Gitana in good order and she’s been well-backed before when showing late promise.

W McCreery’s Party Dress has an in-running reputation – often travels like a threat, so a market flip-flop wouldn’t be a shock.

Ross O’Sullivan runs both Lady Kai and Gracesolution – the former has better turf credentials.

Inchiqin Star and Pons Aelius both have fitness and recent form questions – a big drift would not surprise.



—

Runner Ratings Summary (Out of 10):

Horse Rating

Miss Gitana 7.5
Empress Alma 7.5
Star Official 7
Sioux Eagle 7
Disco Boy 6.5
Lady Kai 6.5
Party Dress 6.5
Gracesolution 6
Dancing Steve 5.5
Inchiquin Star 5.5
Pons Aelius 3.5



—

Tissue Price Estimate (based on adjusted figures and profile):

Miss Gitana – 9/2

Empress Alma – 9/2

Star Official – 6/1

Sioux Eagle – 7/1

Party Dress – 8/1

Disco Boy – 8/1

Lady Kai – 10/1

Gracesolution – 12/1

Dancing Steve – 14/1

Inchiqin Star – 16/1

Pons Aelius – 33/1



—

Conclusion:

Miss Gitana is well weighted on her UK form and hinted at a revival on her Irish turf return – she looks value with a prominent run expected. Empress Alma is classy and progressive but has fitness to prove. Star Official and Sioux Eagle are solid stayers with form ties to many in here, while Disco Boy could still have more to offer. Market support for Party Dress or Lady Kai would raise eyebrows, but preference is for the more reliable, prominent runners in what could become a test of positioning.