Pace & Draw Overview

Pace Forecast: Strong

Draw Bias: Strongly favours low stalls

Pace Implication: With early speed likely to be fierce, hold-up runners drawn low—such as Liosa and Scarboroughwarning—may benefit most, especially if they settle early. Wide-drawn leaders like Al Barez (10) could be inconvenienced despite form.



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Strongest Contenders

SCARBOROUGHWARNING (TFR 100) – 8/10
Lightly raced 4yo who improved sharply in the back half of 2024. Runner-up to Liosa in a well-run Southwell race last time (both pulled clear), suggesting form has substance. Trainer Sir Mark Prescott has a 21% strike rate in early-season. Strong claims if fit after 205-day layoff.
Market check vital.

DRAMA (TFR 101) – 8/10
Twice a Kempton winner and just touched off at Southwell latest in a big field. Often travels strongly but can be quirky under pressure. Hollie Doyle is a plus, and stall 3 should help. Tactically versatile. Solid adjusted figure.

LIOSA (TFR 99) – 7.5/10
Progressive on AW, including a 2¼ length Kempton win in April. Slightly disappointing dropped to 5f next time but still ran well. This is a better set-up—stiff 6f, low draw, and likely strong pace all suit. Wouldn’t want to pull hard early.

TAN RAPIDO (TFR 98) – 7/10
Neck second in a big Southwell handicap and may yet have more to offer at this trip. Drawn low, he’s nicely positioned for a stalking ride and has run well in a similar setup before. Strong each-way claims if the market holds up.


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Main Dangers / Value Runners

AL BAREZ (TFR 98) – 6.5/10
Big performance at Wolverhampton last time behind a well-treated horse. He’s a known slow starter though and drawn widest here, which could be a concern in a heat with early pace and draw bias. Capable but needs things to fall right.

MANY A STAR (TFR 98) – 6.5/10
Old warrior with three AW wins this year but likely to be vulnerable to improvers. Hasn’t run poorly but needs the front to collapse late. Stall 7 less than ideal. Could pick up pieces for a minor placing.

BRIGHT (TFR 96) – 6/10
Multiple 2024 AW winner but hasn’t quite fired in 2025. Will be held up and needs a strong collapse up front. Recent layoff and lack of form enough to pose doubts.


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Outsiders / Needs Revival

ALBERT CEE (TFR 95?) – 5.5/10
Blew out badly on return for a new yard. Was progressive in 2024 and capable at best but probably best watched until he shows a spark again.

BRUNEL CHARM (TFR 96) – 5/10
Blew hot and cold through the winter, and last effort was poor. Might go forward but is poorly drawn and others have stronger profiles.

NIGHT ON EARTH (TFR ?) – 4/10
Formerly useful 5f front-runner, now looking on the downgrade. Can blow the race apart early, but hard to fancy to finish it off at this level over 6f. Draw helps, but not enough.


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Ratings Summary (Out of 10)

Horse Rating

Scarboroughwarning 8
Drama 8
Liosa 7.5
Tan Rapido 7
Al Barez 6.5
Many A Star 6.5
Bright 6
Albert Cee 5.5
Brunel Charm 5
Night On Earth 4



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Tissue Estimate

Scarboroughwarning – 4/1

Drama – 9/2

Liosa – 5/1

Tan Rapido – 13/2

Al Barez – 15/2

Many A Star – 10/1

Bright – 12/1

Albert Cee – 20/1

Brunel Charm – 25/1

Night On Earth – 33/1



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Notes

Watch the market closely for Scarboroughwarning and Al Barez, both off breaks.

Tan Rapido and Drama have recent form in large-field AW handicaps.

Each-way options viable given 10 runners and open nature of the race.

Pace collapse plausible—hold-up runners drawn low may be key.