Pace & Draw Angles

Pace forecast: Even
Draw bias: Neutral over this extended 1m4f trip.

A steady or even tempo is expected. Hold-up types could find things going against them if it turns tactical. Notably, Santorini Star looks well suited to this likely rhythm, while Dancingwithmyself may struggle to settle or get the strong gallop she wants.


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Strongest Contenders

SANTORINI STAR (TFR 98p) – 9/10
Progressive profile with three wins from five starts, including on turf last time at Brighton where she came home strongly. Trainer William Haggas has a 24% strike rate over 10f+ and 23% early-season strike rate. Pedigree and running style both suggest she’ll relish this longer trip. Up in class but on the upgrade.

BESET (TFR 93) – 8/10
Unexposed, 2-2 since joining Joseph O’Brien and value for more than the margin at Sligo last time. William Buick takes over, and the filly shapes as if this trip will suit. May not be thrown in off 81, but there’s plenty of upside.

ORCHARD KEEPER (TFR 94) – 7/10
Varian filly who returned with a strong 2nd at Southwell, form that’s worked out with three behind her re-opposing. Tends to be held up, but has shown more tactical versatility than some others. A win would not surprise.

MERIBELLA (TFR 93) – 7/10
Third in a Listed event when last seen, behind Sea Theme. Capable at this level on turf, but better with a true gallop, so the likely tempo may not suit ideally. Still, a class act at her best and back with Ralph Beckett in top form.


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Main Dangers

UMBRIA (TFR 97) – 6/10
Caught late at Kempton on return; that was her best effort to date. May not find Goodwood’s layout ideal if she’s pressured early, but she’s a potential improver for a trainer in form (Ed Walker).

DANCINGWITHMYSELF (TFR 97) – 6/10
Strong-finishing runner-up the last twice and in good heart. Needs pace to aim at, which she may not get here. Michael Bell’s fillies tend to come forward in the spring, and this one is holding her form well.

BAS BLEU (TFR 95) – 6/10
Won last time at Doncaster, taking advantage of a good sit. Her best form is on sound ground. Has Saffie Osborne on board again and seems to be maturing nicely, though this demands another step forward.


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Interesting Outsiders

OVERTURE (TFR 96) – 5/10
Won four in a row in 2024 but was well held on reappearance. Sir Mark Prescott often leaves a bit to work on, so improvement wouldn’t surprise. If she’s allowed to dictate, she could run better than the market expects.

PIQUE’ (TFR 95) – 5/10
Consistent and stays well, but may find a few better equipped at this class level. Not fully ruled out, especially if the field gets racing too soon.

LOVING LOOK (TFR 94) – 5/10
Hardy type with form in a range of conditions. Beaten by a few of these last time at Southwell and likely to find one or two better treated. Will give her running, though.


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Trends & Trainer Notes

4yos have won the last 5 renewals.

William Haggas has an excellent strike rate at this trip and in the early season period.

Good recent form figures and strong jockey bookings stand out for Santorini Star, Beset, and Orchard Keeper.

Those returning from layoffs of 180+ days: Meribella, Pique’, and Overture – market support is key.



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Timeform Adjusted Ratings & Runner Marks

Horse TFR Rating/10

Santorini Star 98p 9
Beset 93 8
Orchard Keeper 94 7
Meribella 93 7
Umbria 97 6
Dancingwithmyself 97 6
Bas Bleu 95 6
Overture 96 5
Pique’ 95 5
Loving Look 94 5



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Each-Way Angle

With 10 declared runners, this is a solid each-way race. Shortlist for place betting:

Orchard Keeper – consistent, recent form tested

Bas Bleu – unflashy but honest, likely to stick on for a place

Dancingwithmyself – consistent if pace holds up



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Tissue Estimate

Horse Odds

Santorini Star 11/4
Beset 9/2
Orchard Keeper 6/1
Meribella 8/1
Dancingwithmyself 9/1
Umbria 10/1
Bas Bleu 10/1
Overture 14/1
Pique’ 16/1
Loving Look 18/1



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Final Note:
A progressive race with several live chances, but Santorini Star is peaking at the right time and looks the most likely improver at the trip. Beset and Orchard Keeper provide solid opposition, while market moves on returning types like Meribella and Overture should be monitored.