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Pace / Draw Angles:

• Pace Forecast: Strong. Several pace-forcing types present, notably Field Of Gold, Expanded, and Comanche Brave, suggesting a truly run race.
• Draw Bias: No consistent historical draw bias at 1 mile on this round track at the Curragh; pace setup will likely outweigh draw impact.
• Hold-up types may find conditions less favourable unless there is cover and a strong early gallop.

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Contenders – Adjusted Timeform Ratings & Assessment:

Horse	TFR Adj	Comments	Mark (/10)
Field Of Gold	134+	Clear top-rated. Looked unlucky in the Newmarket Guineas, strong traveller, suited by pace. Top claims with Colin Keane up.	9.5
Hotazhell	128	Group 1 winner at 2. Hasn’t reappeared yet this season. Needs to prove he’s trained on but has a winning attitude.	8.5
Cosmic Year	125p	Unbeaten, improving with each run. Bred for this trip and beyond. Possibly better in smaller fields so big field test here.	8
Officer	120p	Progressive type from Ballydoyle. Upward curve expected, though this is a large step up. Ryan Moore rides.	7.5
Expanded	124	Below best in English Guineas but shaped better than result. Second in Dewhurst still fresh in the memory. Could bounce back.	7.5
Scorthy Champ	125	Solid 2yo performer but underwhelming in Newmarket return. Needs to settle better and bounce back to his 2yo peak.	7
Windlord	121	Unexposed colt from Balding’s team, improved up in trip but not bred for a mile at this level. Each-way shout only.	6.5
Rashabar	123	Good 2yo, placed in top company. Reappeared with solid Greenham run but may need a softer lead or different conditions.	6.5
Comanche Brave	117	Outran odds in Leopardstown trial, will be prominent early, but looks vulnerable in the final furlong at this level.	5.5

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Top Contenders:

• FIELD OF GOLD has leading claims on adjusted figures (134+). His unlucky run in the English 2000 Guineas combined with a strong profile, pace-suiting style, and top jockey booking suggest he’s the horse to beat.
• COSMIC YEAR is the most progressive runner, unbeaten and bred to be very good. The question mark is whether the hustle of a bigger field in a truly-run mile will unsettle him.
• HOTAZHELL brings Group 1-winning form but returns off a 210-day layoff – market support will be informative.
• OFFICER is a likely improver on just his fourth start, with a pedigree and trainer profile to make an impact at this level.

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Dangers & Outsiders:

• EXPANDED could bounce back. Second in the Dewhurst still reads well and might have needed the run at Newmarket. Market confidence would be a positive.
• SCORTHY CHAMP and WINDLORD have solid back-class but may lack the turn of foot at this level unless the race falls apart late.
• RASHABAR might try to steal it but has never shaped like a true Group 1 miler.

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Trainer Trends:

• Aidan O’Brien has won this race 11 times, including 2023 with Paddington. He runs Expanded and Officer.
• John & Thady Gosden, in red-hot form, run Field Of Gold who was narrowly denied in the English Guineas.
• Joseph O’Brien’s runners often peak second-up, watch Scorthy Champ for market support.

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Market Watch:

• Hotazhell (210 days off) and Scorthy Champ (21 days) return off breaks; positive market support would strengthen their cases, particularly for the former with Group 1-winning 2yo form.
• Cosmic Year, returning within 22 days, is a hot type whose form is sharply progressive – sprinters-turned-milers like him can stay hot.

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Each-Way Angle:

With 9 runners declared, each-way terms are available with three places. Officer (120p) could represent value in that sphere given his upward profile and connections. Expanded is another live one if the market speaks in his favour.

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Tissue Estimate (100% Book):

Horse	Tissue Odds
Field Of Gold	11/10
Cosmic Year	5/1
Hotazhell	13/2
Officer	8/1
Expanded	10/1
Scorthy Champ	16/1
Rashabar	20/1
Windlord	25/1
Comanche Brave	33/1

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Summary:
This looks FIELD OF GOLD’s race to lose on balance of form and ratings. If avoiding traffic, he should confirm his Guineas merit. COSMIC YEAR is feared as an unbeaten improver, while HOTAZHELL and EXPANDED appeal as respected threats if the market signals confidence after their breaks. OFFICE, meanwhile, represents Ballydoyle’s most interesting challenger.