Pace & Draw Angles

A strong pace is forecast here, with likely contributions from Vera’s Secret, Naomi Lapaglia, and possibly Rubies From Burma. With no draw bias over this straight mile at the Curragh, the pace scenario should favour those with proven stamina and a turn of foot. Timeform notes suggest Porta Fortuna’s chance is unlikely to be affected by how the race is run.


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Strongest Contenders

Porta Fortuna (TFR 130) – 10/10
A triple Group 1 winner in 2024 (Coronation, Falmouth, Matron Stakes) and top-rated here by some margin. Returns from 204 days off after a luckless Breeders’ Cup run where she was denied a clear passage. Proven at the Curragh, acts on any ground, and her class should carry her through even if not fully wound up. Timeform flags her as Horse for Course.

One Look (TFR 117) – 8/10
Park Express Stakes winner at this track in April on reappearance, continuing a steady rise in form. Has a solid profile and is unbeaten at the Curragh. Trainer Paddy Twomey has 2 wins in the past 10 renewals and a 21% Curragh strike rate. Strong place credentials.

Jancis (TFR 118) – 8/10
Lightly raced and progressive, returned from a long break with a near miss in a Listed race at Gowran. Trainer W. McCreery has trained 3 winners of this race in the past decade, making her an interesting contender from a trends angle. Still improving.


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Main Dangers

Naomi Lapaglia (TFR 115) – 7/10
Third in the same Park Express Stakes behind One Look, and that came off a break. Has a consistent Listed/Group 3-level profile and is now with the in-form Ger Lyons. Solid without obvious Group 2-winning credentials, but respected for her toughness and course record.

Birthe (TFR 121) – 7/10
Group 1-winning import from France now with Joseph O’Brien. She was a disappointment on final 2024 start but had earlier won the Prix Saint-Alary. If revitalised, she is dangerous, but this is her first run for 252 days and her new yard. Market could guide.


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Interesting Outsiders

Vera’s Secret (TFR 119) – 6/10
Front-runner who ran away with a Listed race at Leopardstown last time. Suited by a prominent ride and may give a bold show if allowed an easy lead. Best form is on good ground, but has more on her plate against proven Group 1 mares.

Rubies From Burma (TFR 108p) – 6/10
Lightly raced and progressive filly, shaped well in a Kempton Listed race on return. Could come on for that effort, but likely needs another step forward to get involved in this company.

Azada (TFR 114) – 5/10
Improved to win a Listed race at Naas last autumn and bred to be very useful, but this demands a new career-best. Others have more compelling recent Group form.


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Trainer Trends

W. McCreery: 3 wins in last 10 runnings (saddles Jancis).

P. Twomey: 2 wins in past decade and a 21% strike rate at the Curragh (saddles One Look).

No returning runners off breaks >300 days, but Porta Fortuna, Birthe, and Azada are all first-up from >200 days. Watch market for signs of fitness or weakness.

In-form fillies with recent wins (One Look, Vera’s Secret) tend to run well in this.



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Runner Ratings (out of 10)

Horse Trainer Timeform Rating Mark /10

Porta Fortuna Donnacha O’Brien 130 10
Jancis W. McCreery 118 8
One Look P. Twomey 117 8
Naomi Lapaglia G. M. Lyons 115 7
Birthe Joseph O’Brien 121 7
Vera’s Secret J. J. Feane 119 6
Rubies From Burma H. de Bromhead 108p 6
Azada D. K. Weld 114 5



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Tissue Estimate (100% Market)

Porta Fortuna – 6/4

Jancis – 6/1

One Look – 13/2

Naomi Lapaglia – 8/1

Birthe – 9/1

Vera’s Secret – 12/1

Rubies From Burma – 16/1

Azada – 20/1



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Summary:
Porta Fortuna stands out on ratings and achievements, but returns off 204 days and may come on for the run. That said, she still sets the standard. One Look and Jancis are the most likely to take advantage if the favourite underperforms. Birthe is intriguing on French form but has fitness questions to answer. Watch market support especially for the returning trio (Porta Fortuna, Birthe, Azada), and note One Look and Vera’s Secret come here fit and winning.