Pace & Tactical Angle

A strong pace is forecast, with front-runners like Murkala, Calrissiana and Fiona Maccoul likely to force the issue early. This should suit hold-up runners – particularly Shiota, Lady Lilac, and La Guapisima, who have all been seen to best effect off a strong gallop.

Track Bias Note: Over this mile trip at the Curragh, hold-up runners often prosper in strongly-run contests – especially when ground rides good to firm.


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Key Contenders: Profiles & Ratings

VARSHINI (1) – TFR 104p – OR 82 – Stack/Heffernan

Mark: 8/10
Bolted up in a Gowran maiden (2¼L) after a nine-month break. Strong pedigree and clearly progressive. Open to serious improvement now tackling a handicap – could be well in off 82.

> Looks set to relish 1m and is drawn to sit just off the speed – major player.




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MURKALA (2) – TFR 99p – OR 94 – Murtagh/McGettigan (7)

Mark: 8/10
Up 10lbs for a comfortable Curragh win over 7f. Trainer/jockey combo going well and she stays a strong mile.

> Can make her own running again but faces more pace pressure this time. Slight value doubt at a short price, but still improving.




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SHIOTA (3) – TFR 106 – OR 89 – Joseph Murphy/G.F. Carroll

Mark: 8/10
Took a big step forward to win a 15-runner Naas handicap with a sweeping late run. Shape of the race should suit perfectly again.

> Late closer who’ll love the pace. Big player off just a 4lb rise – top value angle.




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EMPRESS ARTEMIS (6) – TFR 99p – OR 77 – Lyons/Roche

Mark: 7/10
Ex-Halford filly who was unlucky not to go closer on her last Dundalk start. New yard could unlock more. May improve again switching to turf and a strong-run 1m looks ideal.

> Unexposed – respected despite needing a career best.




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CALRISSIANA (5) – TFR 100 – OR 80 – Meade/Cleary

Mark: 6/10
Won a Naas maiden when grinding it out late. Will stay further but vulnerable to speedier sorts here under similar conditions.

> Place claims but may get tapped for toe.




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Others Briefly

LA GUAPISIMA (1) – Listed winner in France but long layoff. Could need this.

FIONA MACCOUL – Outclassed by Murkala LTO. Hard to recommend.

GLORIOUSLY GLAM – Form has dipped; blinkers off after no show at Naas.

LADY LILAC – Consistent maiden, but likely vulnerable in a true-run contest.



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Marks Out of 10

Horse OR Mark

Shiota 89 8
Varshini 82 8
Murkala 94 8
Empress Artemis 77 7
Calrissiana 80 6
Lady Lilac 73 5
La Guapisima 98 5
Gloriously Glam 74 4
Fiona Maccoul 74 4



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Trainer Trends

J.A. Stack: +£55.83 to £1 LSP when stepping runners up in trip – Varshini ticks this box.

G.M. Lyons: Excellent strike rate with lightly-raced fillies in spring – Empress Artemis an interesting dark horse.



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TimeWise Tissue (100%)

Shiota – 7/2

Varshini – 7/2

Murkala – 4/1

Empress Artemis – 13/2

Calrissiana – 10/1

La Guapisima – 14/1

Lady Lilac – 16/1

Gloriously Glam – 20/1

Fiona Maccoul – 28/1



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Summary

The pace setup and track configuration both scream SHIOTA, who impressed when sweeping late at Naas and looks even better suited to this scenario. VARSHINI is dangerous with untapped upside, while MURKALA must be respected but faces pace pressure this time.

Verdict:

Win Bet: Shiota

Main Danger: Varshini

Each-Way Value: Empress Artemis if 8/1+