1. Pace/Draw Analysis

The forecast very weak pace suggests a tactical race. Cartmel’s tight layout rewards jumping rhythm and handy position, and front-runners or stalkers may get first run.

SIR TIVO is notably favoured by the setup, being sharp over fences when on-song and best ridden forward.

CUZCO DU MATHAN, another who can race prominently, might be at a disadvantage if he’s held up or lacks race sharpness.



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2. Contenders, Dangers & Trends

Strongest Contenders

GLORY AND HONOUR (TFR 133) – Dual CD form, back on last winning mark and from a stable in good form. Stays the trip, goes well here, and suited by small fields. May control from near the pace in a muddling race.

ARTHUR’S QUAY (TFR 131) – Won well at Newcastle last time, has form over further and handles all goings. Not always reliable, but respected with a recent win and 40% strike rate for McLernon on chase favourites.

CUZCO DU MATHAN (TFR 129) – Back-to-back Cartmel wins last summer, including over CD. Absent 273 days, but James Moffatt targets this venue, and Charlotte Jones has a 22% strike rate here.


Main Dangers / Each-Way Interest

GREY DIAMOND (TFR 128) – Rejuvenated last time, comes from the McCain yard and down the weights. Shapes as if still retaining ability if finding rhythm early.

SIR TIVO (TFR 136) – Well-handicapped on old form, and the likely pace scenario suits. Yard is going well, and has gone fresh before.

DISCO ANNIE (TFR 132) – Headstrong and quirky but talented; free-goer who fades if not settled. Back quickly after a recent run and unproven beyond sharp 2m, but not dismissed.


Interesting Outsider

SPECIAL RATE (TFR 130) – Better form with previous yards, and 37-day turnaround should suit better than the 6-week break prior. May need further now.


Trends & Notes

Winners often have recent runs, proven CD form and can make their own running.

Trainer Trends:

James Moffatt targets Cartmel with his better horses.

Sam England also excels at placing CD types like Glory and Honour.

Gary Hanmer has a 20% strike rate with 2m chasers.




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3. Marks Out of 10 (Profile, Rating, Suitability)

Horse Rating (/10) Comments

Glory and Honour 8.5 CD scorer, back on a good mark, local yard in form
Arthur’s Quay 8 Strong latest win, respected if backing it up
Cuzco du Mathan 7.5 Absent 273 days but two CD wins, dangerous fresh
Sir Tivo 7.5 Down in weights, pace angle in favour
Grey Diamond 7 Encouraging last time, needs to back it up
Disco Annie 6.5 Talented but tricky; temperament key
Special Rate 6 Past glories, may need a stiffer test now


Keep a close watch on the market, especially for Sir Tivo and Cuzco du Mathan returning off breaks of 160+ and 270+ days, respectively.


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4. Each-Way Angle

Only 7 runners – no each-way recommendation based on standard place terms.


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5. Tissue Estimate (Fair Odds)

Horse Tissue Odds

Glory and Honour 3/1
Arthur’s Quay 4/1
Cuzco du Mathan 5/1
Sir Tivo 11/2
Grey Diamond 7/1
Disco Annie 8/1
Special Rate 10/1



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Summary:
A trappy affair, but Glory and Honour is well-weighted, proven here, and well placed tactically. Arthur’s Quay and Cuzco du Mathan bring solid winning form. Sir Tivo could surprise from the front if bouncing back.