Surface: Turf | Runners: 18 declared | Pace Forecast: Even
Draw Bias: N/A (hurdles)
Pace Note: Hold-up horses are generally disadvantaged at this trip here; prominent types should be preferred. Notably, WHATSAVAILABLE is better suited by the forecast tempo than the likes of DIGBY.


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1. Strongest Contenders

STRAIGHT HOME (TFR 147p) – Progressive mare who’s done well since joining Willie Mullins. Won her latest Ballinrobe outing with authority, stays well and shaped like more to come over this longer trip. Up 9lb but could still be ahead of her mark. Top stable/jockey combo (Townend 51% on hurdling favourites) and well berthed for a tracking ride.

APPLE’S OF BRESIL (TFR 149) – Solid profile and shaped with promise when second to a useful type at Fairyhouse in November. Has the ability to go close if ready after 177 days off. Travels strongly and should appreciate this extra distance.

WATCH THE WEATHER (TFR 148+) – Capable chaser who returns to hurdles after two wins last season. Has a decent mark in this sphere and showed useful staying ability. If tuned up, could figure well in a strongly run handicap.



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2. Main Dangers

DARTAN (TFR 146) – Just touched off by Ad Caelum at Kilbeggan last time despite being off the bridle early. That was a return to form and he’s very competitive off this rating. Repeat of that effort puts him right in the mix.

NATURAL LOOK (TFR 154) – ‘Horse in focus’ after shaping well on return from five months off when 4th at Cork. Has placed in stronger races and may come on plenty for that recent run.

BILLY LEE SWAGGER (TFR 147) – Also flagged as a focus horse and ran a huge race in a 25-runner Punchestown handicap last time. Progressive and possibly ahead of his mark if building on that effort over this longer trip.

AD CAELUM (TFR 146) – Game winner of a similar race at Kilbeggan when just holding off Dartan. That form ties in closely and she’s been consistent. Has gone up in the weights but remains a live each-way player.



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3. Interesting Outsiders & Profile Notes

ROCKYMOUNTAINBLEU (TFR 150) – Interesting profile stepping up in trip, finished a staying-on 5th at Punchestown and might improve again.

GOLDEN TEMPLE (TFR 150) – Lightly raced for Noel Meade and has useful form, but shaped as if amiss when last seen. Market worth watching off 115-day break.

WHATSAVAILABLE (TFR 153) – Suited by pace here and previously capable, but often disappoints when trading shorter in-play. Risky but not dismissed.

DIGBY (TFR 152) – Inconsistent but arrives off a Bangor chase win. May find things tougher back over hurdles, especially if held up.



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4. Trainers with Previous Winners of the Race

John Patrick Ryan, who trains AD CAELUM, often targets these western festival handicaps and landed this contest in 2021.



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5. Runner Ratings (Out of 10)

Horse Rating

Straight Home 8.5/10
Apple’s Of Bresil 8/10
Billy Lee Swagger 7.5/10
Dartan 7.5/10
Watch The Weather 7/10
Natural Look 7/10
Ad Caelum 6.5/10
Rockymountainbleu 6.5/10
Whatsavailable 6/10
Golden Temple 6/10
Plains Indian 5.5/10
Londonofficecallin 5.5/10
Fiveonefive 5/10
Moonovercloon 5/10
Digby 5/10
Chinx Of Light 4.5/10
Jolie Jewel (RES) 4.5/10
Mic Drop (RES) 4/10


Note: Monitor the market for any significant support or drift for layoff horses such as Apple’s Of Bresil (177 days), Golden Temple (115), and Chinx Of Light (262). Each has historical form but needs to prove readiness.


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6. Each-Way Angle

With 18 runners and 4 places likely on offer, each-way plays are viable.
BILLY LEE SWAGGER, DARTAN, and WATCH THE WEATHER appeal most for place value at prices.


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7. Tissue Estimate (100%)

Straight Home – 4/1

Apple’s Of Bresil – 6/1

Dartan – 7/1

Billy Lee Swagger – 8/1

Watch The Weather – 10/1

Ad Caelum – 10/1

Natural Look – 10/1

Rockymountainbleu – 14/1

Whatsavailable – 16/1

Golden Temple – 16/1

Plains Indian – 20/1

Londonofficecallin – 20/1

Fiveonefive – 25/1

Moonovercloon – 25/1

Digby – 25/1

Chinx Of Light – 33/1

Jolie Jewel – 33/1 (if declared)

Mic Drop – 40/1 (if declared)



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Conclusion:
STRAIGHT HOME looks progressive and still ahead of her mark. APPLE’S OF BRESIL and BILLY LEE SWAGGER rate strong threats if ready, while DARTAN and WATCH THE WEATHER appeal for those looking beyond the obvious. This is a competitive renewal and market movements close to the off will be revealing.