1. Race Conditions and Pace/Draw Angles

Race Title: Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden

Class: Maiden (3yo+, 7f 20y)

Surface: Turf | Going: Good

Field Size: 13 runners

Pace Forecast: Even

Draw Bias: No strong bias evident over this trip at Tipperary

Specific Pace Hint: Hold-up horses are typically at a disadvantage unless the gallop is strong, which is not expected. HUGO’S GIRL may be better positioned than closers such as POSH SPIRIT.



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2. Strongest Contenders, Dangers & Outsiders (with Trends & Timeform Notes)

Leading Contenders:

CANDIDLY (Donnacha O’Brien)
Debuts for a top yard with Coolmore connections. Closely related to Waver and Alazne, and the dam is a sister to Rock of Gibraltar. No form yet, but pedigree and booking of Gavin Ryan speak positively. Strong chance if market holds firm.

PETE’S DREAM (Andrew Slattery)
Promising debut at Leopardstown when denied a clear run. Finished fifth, not beaten far, and was backed at 16/1. Profile suggests he’ll come on for the run. Strong contender on that evidence.

SONORAN (G. M. Lyons / C. T. Keane)
Lyons has a strong record with his maidens, and the jockey booking is notable. Related to sprint winners, including No Nay Never’s Preamble. Yard is in form. A potential improver if stamina lasts out.


Main Dangers:

HUGO’S GIRL (TFR 74)
Solid placed form in handicaps at the Curragh and Dundalk. Often slowly away but stays the trip well and comes into this off a career-best effort. Not unexposed, but capable.

MINELLA STUDY (TFR 68)
Shaped well in a Tipperary maiden last year before a poor reappearance at Cork. Yard often has just one runner per meeting, which is a notable trend for this trainer.

MASKED ANGEL (TFR 71)
Modest previous efforts but improved after a break when fourth at Limerick. Connections now persevere over 7f, and any further step forward could put her in the mix.


Interesting Outsiders:

WINTERS BREATH (W. McCreery)
Debutant from a yard with a +£60.50 level-stake profit with first-time starters. Bred for speed, but distance should suit. Market likely to guide.

TICKLING (Mark Molloy)
Half-sister to Moyassar (a 2yo 6f winner). No form yet, but dam has produced speed types. Possible forward run if fancied.



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3. Runner Ratings (Out of 10)

Stall Horse Adj Rating Notes Score

(1) TICKLING – Siblings include Moyassar. Unknown profile. 4.5
(2) CANDIDLY – Rock-solid pedigree, top connections. Debutant. 8.5
(3) KEVIN THE GREAT 59p Gelded since debut, shaped okay at Navan. 6
(4) HUGO’S GIRL 74 Consistent, but exposed. Placed in big-field handicap. 6.5
(5) WINTERS BREATH – McCreery debutant, stats good. Pedigree favours speed. 6
(6) FOUR WHITE FURY – Well bred but likely wants further. 4.5
(7) SHANLIEVE – Related to stayers. Market should reveal more. 4.5
(8) POSH SPIRIT – From sprint-miler family. Widely unexposed. 4.5
(9) MASKED ANGEL 71 Back to form at Limerick. Has potential to build on it. 6.5
(10) SONORAN – Lyons/Keane combo. Strong pedigree. 7.5
(11) CHIPSRDOWN – Beaten out of sight twice. Hard to recommend. 2.5
(12) PETE’S DREAM 72p Eye-catching debut, should improve plenty. 8
(13) MINELLA STUDY 68 One fair run last year. Might improve back at Tipperary. 6


Note:

Only PETE’S DREAM, MINELLA STUDY and HUGO’S GIRL have run within the last 90 days with a recent positive showing.

Keep a close watch on debutants CANDIDLY and SONORAN for any significant market support late on.



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4. Each-Way Angles

With 13 runners, each-way terms apply.

Each-Way Candidates:

PETE’S DREAM – showed more than the bare result last time and is open to improvement.

MASKED ANGEL – credible place chance if building on latest effort.

MINELLA STUDY – form at this track, better than Cork run suggests.



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5. Tissue Price Estimate

Horse Tissue Odds

CANDIDLY 5/2
PETE’S DREAM 4/1
SONORAN 11/2
HUGO’S GIRL 8/1
MASKED ANGEL 10/1
MINELLA STUDY 12/1
WINTERS BREATH 12/1
KEVIN THE GREAT 14/1
TICKLING 20/1
POSH SPIRIT 25/1
SHANLIEVE 25/1
FOUR WHITE FURY 33/1
CHIPSRDOWN 100/1



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Summary

The race revolves around CANDIDLY, who has the pedigree and yard profile to justify support on debut. PETE’S DREAM brings the most promising form into the race and looks the one to beat among those with experience. SONORAN represents a top trainer/jockey combination and demands respect. Keep an eye on WINTERS BREATH and MINELLA STUDY as potentially underestimated each-way alternatives.

RapidView Notes: 5:50 Tipperary – Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden (7f, 3yo+ rated ≤72)

This 7f maiden for unexposed three-year-olds offers a good opportunity for upwardly-mobile types, and while many remain works in progress, the RapidView stats provide several clear angles.


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Trainer and Jockey Trends

G M Lyons dominates the training data:

42% win rate at Tipperary

21% over the last year

Solid across race type, distance, and class
His runner Sonoran, ridden by Colin Keane, benefits from a 21% trainer/jockey win rate—top combination in the field.


Donnacha O’Brien is another sharp name to note with a 33% win strike rate in the past 7 days. Candidly is his entry, and is partnered by Gavin Ryan (20% strike rate over the last week).

Andrew Slattery has two declared, including the well-bred Petes Dream, and his family/jockey combo operates efficiently.


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Sire and Breeding Insights

Study of Man (sire of Minella Study) stands out with 16%+ stats across surface, trip, and class.

Saxon Warrior, represented by Kevin The Great and Shanlieve, has excellent class stats (33%) and shows up well in similar maidens.

Caravaggio (Winters Breath) boasts a 31% win rate at Tipperary—highlighting a proven track affinity for his progeny.

Harry Angel (Masked Angel) and Churchill (Candidly) both bring strong commercial profiles, though stats are limited.


Dam-side:

Minella Study (dam: Albamara) scores well in both class (24%) and distance.

Namiid’s dam Ascot Family (not in this race) rated extremely high in a prior race at this meeting—worth keeping in mind for cross-comparison if linked to any recent form.



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Notable Profiles

Candidly (Churchill x Nell Gwyn): Strong connections, positive trainer/jockey form, and a classy pedigree. Trainer in form.

Sonoran (Arizona x Falling Rain): Well-treated in this grade. Lyons/Keane stats make this a serious player.

Petes Dream (Elzaam x Michaels Missile): Pedigree supports speed and precocity, and stable know how to win these types.

Kevin The Great (Saxon Warrior x Via Ballycroy): Well-bred, strong class influence, and from a capable yard with Foley aboard.

Minella Study (Study Of Man x Albamara): Dam’s family offers substance and progression. J A Heffernan booked—an interesting outsider.



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Summary

Statistical highlights and breeding lines favour a core group:

Leading Contender: Candidly – top current trainer form and solid stats across distance, surface, and jockey booking

Main Dangers: Sonoran (Lyons/Keane combination speaks volumes), Kevin The Great (well-bred and progressive)

Each-Way Value: Minella Study and Winters Breath – both have strong damline trends and aren’t without a chance


In a race where many are still unexposed, the key may lie in stable readiness and breeding for the trip. On stats and trends, Candidly sets the bar.