1. Race Conditions and Pace/Draw

Race Title: Irish EBF Median Sires Series

Class: 2yo Median Auction | Distance: 5f

Going: Good

Runners: 9

Pace Forecast: Even

Draw Bias: No notable bias at this trip over the straight course

Pace Angle: SPRING IS HERE is expected to be well positioned regardless of pace scenario; hold-up types may struggle without a stronger gallop.



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2. Strongest Contenders, Main Dangers & Notables

Strongest Contenders:

SPRING IS HERE (TFR 99p, Joseph O’Brien)
Sister to Castle Star. Debuted with an encouraging fourth in Listed company behind Lady Iman at the Curragh—an effort that reads strongly. Has tactical speed and professionalism. Drops in class here and is the one to beat on form.

ROGUE LEGEND (TFR 92p, Paddy Twomey)
Won well on his second start at Cork, asserting in the final furlong. Trainer’s 31% strike rate in early-season 2yo races is notable. Still learning but already a winner and improving.

BABY BASMA (TFR 90p, Edward O’Neill)
Displayed greenness when winning at Cork, but quickened clear late and shaped like more was to come. Dam and sibling were sharp types. Respected, especially with Colin Keane staying aboard.


Main Dangers:

PINTS IN PEACE (TFR 85p)
Debut fourth at the Curragh, not knocked about and finished with promise. Smaller yard but solid first effort. Needs to step up but capable of doing so.

HOWD’YADOIT (G. M. Lyons)
Debutant from a hot stable, pedigree suggests 5–6f speed. Yard in form and Lyons has a good record in this race type. Watch the market closely.



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3. Ratings & Runner Scores (/10)

No. Horse Adj Rtg Notes Score

1 ROGUE LEGEND 92p Won last time, stable in top form. 8
2 NAMIID – Showed little on debut, looked green. 3.5
3 BABY BASMA 90p Comfortable Cork winner; has speed and upside. 8
4 SPRING IS HERE 99p Class-drop after Listed fourth; clear standard setter. 9
5 PINTS IN PEACE 85p Stayed on late on debut; could progress but needs to sharpen. 6.5
6 HOWD’YADOIT – Good pedigree, Lyons runner—market support significant. 6.5
7 LILBITTYPRETTYONE – First foal, low-profile yard, limited pedigree clues. 4.5
8 GELATO – €1,000 purchase, stable not known for early 2yo winners. 3.5
9 IGETAKICKOUTOFYOU – Unfancied newcomer, dam placed only. Hard to weigh up. 4


Market Watch:

HOWD’YADOIT could be a late mover if the Lyons yard has expectations.

SPRING IS HERE should be very solid in the market given her Listed effort.

ROGUE LEGEND comes out quickly (7 days) off a dominant Cork win, always worth noting with Twomey runners.



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4. Each-Way Angles

With 9 runners, each-way terms apply.

Each-Way Candidates:

BABY BASMA – Took a step forward late on debut and looks value if overlooked against better-known yards.

PINTS IN PEACE – Less obvious but ran with promise in a small Curragh field and may outrun odds again.



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5. Tissue Price Estimate

Horse Estimated Odds

SPRING IS HERE 7/4
ROGUE LEGEND 5/2
BABY BASMA 6/1
HOWD’YADOIT 10/1
PINTS IN PEACE 12/1
LILBITTYPRETTYONE 25/1
IGETAKICKOUTOFYOU 25/1
NAMIID 33/1
GELATO 66/1



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Summary

SPRING IS HERE sets the standard and drops in class from a strong Listed debut. ROGUE LEGEND arrives race-fit and on the up, while BABY BASMA impressed on her only run. Newcomer HOWD’YADOIT is intriguing if backed. Watch for late support in this lightly-raced field.

RapidView Spotlight: 6:20 Tipperary – Irish EBF Median Sires Series Race (2yo, 5f)

A fascinating early-season juvenile dash featuring nine lightly-raced or unraced two-year-olds, all by sires that qualify under the Irish EBF median sire conditions. With no official ratings yet to go on, this is where trainer, jockey, and breeding indicators come to the fore – and HorseRaceBase’s RapidView offers just the edge.


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Trainer and Jockey Form

The clear standout is Paddy Twomey, whose form figures are exceptional:

33% win strike rate over the last 7 and 30 days

36% across 90 days, 26% over the past year

A strong 32% win rate at race type and 28% in this class


His runner Rogue Legend is partnered by W J Lee, and this pair strike at 32% together. Lee also holds top marks across race type, class, and jockey/dam combinations – a very solid foundation for this well-bred colt.

Also of note:

G M Lyons has a 42% win rate at Tipperary and sends Howdyadoit, a Nando Parrado colt partnered by G F Carroll.

David Marnane, who sends two, boasts a notable 30% win rate with the track/distance combo – Igetakickoutofyou and Lilbittyprettyone could prove sneaky value.



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Sire and Breeding Highlights

Stallion trends:

Rogue Legend is by Havana Grey, whose runners strike at 16% over this trip and a massive 40% at Tipperary.

Pints In Peace, by Bated Breath, sits atop the stats for sire over track/distance (80%) and trainer/race type (57%) – a potent combo, albeit with a small sample.

Howdyadoit, by Nando Parrado, has top-tier going stats (22%) and fair distance and track figures.


Damline patterns:

Namiid may be a longshot on paper, but her dam Ascot Family produces 30% winners overall, with 38% over today’s trip and going.

Baby Basma (Ardad x Morning Basma) also benefits from dam-sire Born To Sea’s decent figures for speed influence.



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Runner Insights

Rogue Legend is the clear statistical standout with elite sire, trainer, and jockey metrics. Everything points to this being a well-primed debut.

Spring Is Here, trained by Joseph O’Brien and ridden by Dylan McMonagle, is by Starspangledbanner and bred for speed. O’Brien’s stats are quieter in this dataset but he’s a known force in these conditions.

Pints In Peace is bred to be quick and looks overpriced if interpreting the Bated Breath angles seriously.

Baby Basma could have sneaky claims with a solid Ardad influence and Colin Keane in the saddle.

Howdyadoit comes from a yard that excels here and has the best trainer/track data on the page.



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Summary

This is all about promise on paper and which stable has theirs ready first. Based on the statistical readout:

Strongest Profile: Rogue Legend – every box ticked for trainer, jockey, sire, and track suitability.

Lively Contenders: Spring Is Here, Pints In Peace, Baby Basma

Outsiders with Angles: Howdyadoit, Namiid


If the RapidView metrics hold true, Rogue Legend is the one they all have to beat. But in a race of unknowns, watching the market late on could prove just as important.