Small field of five.
Pace forecast: Weak. Front-runners have a good record at Newton Abbot over staying trips, and with no obvious strong pace angle here, handy racers such as Hold Your Fort and Deise Aba may be favoured.


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1. Contenders, Dangers & Outsiders

Kick Up A Storm makes his chasing debut for Paul Nicholls after showing useful novice hurdle form last summer/autumn, including back-to-back wins at Wincanton and Exeter. He’s had a breathing op since his disappointing Doncaster run and returns with Harry Cobden back on board. Newton Abbot suits prominent, slick jumpers, and Nicholls has a 29% strike rate at the track since 2021.

Hold Your Fort is a C&D specialist with four Newton Abbot wins already and bounced back to form here just 14 days ago when second to a progressive type. He’s one of the more solid options based on course record, and a repeat of that effort would put him firmly in the mix. Likely to be prominent throughout.

Investment Manager, last year’s winner of this race (then under a different title), also has Newton Abbot form figures of 1212. He can race lazily but clearly enjoys the track, and although he was disappointing last time, he’s now reunited with Brendan Powell and returns to this longer trip. Joe Tizzard has won this race twice in the last three years.

Planned Paradise tends to be held up and can be prone to jumping errors, but he stays well and has been shaping steadily in recent starts. His best efforts have come on good or quicker ground, so conditions will suit. Still, his record when fresh and tactical pace here could count against him.

Deise Aba is the most exposed and comes here after a mildly encouraging run in a veterans’ chase at Ascot. He’s not the force of old but has front-running tendencies that could work in his favour if he gets an easy lead. Still, he’s inconsistent and hard to rely on.


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2. Trends, Profile Pointers & Trainer Notes

This race has typically been contested by small fields and often suits handy types.

Investment Manager won the 2024 renewal and has form figures of 1212 at Newton Abbot.

Paul Nicholls has a strong local strike rate (29%) and books stable jockey Harry Cobden for Kick Up A Storm on his chase debut.

Debra Hamer’s Hold Your Fort is a course specialist with four wins at Newton Abbot and arrives in good form.

Watch for support or drift on Kick Up A Storm, who is coming off a 180-day break and has had wind surgery. The same applies to Deise Aba (59-day absence).



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3. Ratings (out of 10, based on current form, suitability to track, trainer record, and adjusted ability)

Kick Up A Storm – 8
Hold Your Fort – 8
Investment Manager – 7.5
Planned Paradise – 6.5
Deise Aba – 6


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4. Each-Way Angles

No each-way angle here – just 5 runners declared.


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5. Private Tissue Estimate

Kick Up A Storm – 5/2
Hold Your Fort – 11/4
Investment Manager – 3/1
Planned Paradise – 9/2
Deise Aba – 6/1


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Summary:
A tactical small-field staying chase where jumping and track position will count for plenty. Kick Up A Storm is a fascinating chasing debutant for Paul Nicholls and brings the best overall hurdle form. Hold Your Fort is a proven Newton Abbot performer and may prove tough to peg back if getting an easy time up front. Investment Manager cannot be ruled out back at his favourite track but will need to travel better than last time. Watch the market closely for clues, especially around those returning from a break.

Stats 📊👇

🔹 Trainer & Jockey Trends

Joe Tizzard (trainer):

36% win strike rate last 30 days

19% 1-year strike rate


P.F. Nicholls (trainer):

19% win rate over 90 days

22% strike rate at Class 3 level


Mrs D.A. Hamer (trainer):

37% strike at this track

50% at this distance

71% with this horse/jockey combo


Top jockeys on recent form:

Brendan Powell (32% last 30 days)

Harry Cobden (23% over 90 days)

J.A. Best (63% with this horse)




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🔹 Horse Performance Indicators

Kick Up A Storm (P.F. Nicholls / Harry Cobden)

67% win rate from last 3 runs

50% win rate on going

Solid recent form and in a yard with good Class 3 strike rate


Hold Your Fort (Mrs D.A. Hamer / J.A. Best)

80% win/place at track and trip

67% win rate when favourite

Excellent stats at today’s distance, course, and under current jockey


Investment Manager (Joe Tizzard / Brendan Powell)

Decent Class record

Trainer in very strong current form

Profile suggests competitive, but not dominant at this distance


Planned Paradise (Christian Williams / Jack Tudor)

Patchy form

No recent standout stats across course, trip or class


Deise Aba (Mrs Alex Dunn / Adam Wedge)

Limited recent data performance-wise

No notable trainer or horse trends at this course or trip



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🔹 Sire/Damline Trends

Hold Your Fort (El Salvador):

Dam side (Spirit Of Youth / Brian Boru) has excellent 80% at course, distance, and sire/trainer/debut stats


Kick Up A Storm (Shantou):

Dam line offers fair performance on going, moderate overall


Investment Manager (Nathaniel):

Class and stamina influences clear from pedigree




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🔹 Summary

Strongest Contenders:

Kick Up A Storm – arriving in good form, proven on going, respected connections.

Hold Your Fort – top stats for this exact track and trip; trainer/jockey combo red hot.


Main Danger:

Investment Manager – positive trainer stats, could benefit from small field if jumping holds up.


Interesting Outsider:

Deise Aba – past rating hints at ability, but current form/trends weak.