Pace Forecast: Strong. Several like to go forward, so an end-to-end gallop is likely. That could blunt the usual advantage of front-runners here and favour those ridden more patiently. Club Manager and Sunchart may be well suited by how this unfolds.


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1. Strongest Contenders, Dangers & Notables

Sunchart is a course winner and arrives with fitness guaranteed after a spin on the Flat. He was competitive in novice company last autumn and has the strongest hurdle ratings in the field. The pace setup should suit, and his dual-code experience is a plus. A sharp 2m1f might not be ideal, but the gallop could bring his stamina into play.

The Big Doyen has been chasing recently but has respectable back-form over hurdles, including a third in the Grade 2 Hyde Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham. Returns from 127 days off and is now with Declan Queally. Best efforts have come when ridden handy, but a strong pace may not be ideal. Still well in on peak hurdles form if back to his best.

Grimaud represents Gordon Elliott and has been running consistently in strong Irish novice hurdles. He was outclassed in a big Aintree handicap last time but is back in calmer waters. Only five, and remains open to improvement.

Duke of Leggagh has been busy on the Flat but is proven over hurdles and won a pair of Naas handicaps in the spring. Best over sharp trips, and connections are clearly keen to keep him active. If bouncing back from a recent busy spell, he can be competitive.

Farfromnowhere is a lightly raced mare who has won both career starts, including a smooth success in a Limerick maiden hurdle a year ago. She returns from 363 days off and clearly has potential, but faces a tough task off level weights with more exposed types.

Club Manager has shaped like he has another hurdle win in him, including when second in a competitive Listowel handicap. He’ll be suited by a proper pace and could be one for the frame at a price, though the form of his yard has been in and out.

Black Heather was a disappointing favourite last time on stable debut but had looked useful before. Still early days with Gavin Cromwell, and any market support would be notable.

Any Road, Jake Peter, and Arctic Bresil are all capable but arrive with questions. Any Road has been inconsistent and didn’t finish off his race last time. Jake Peter has solid form from last season but returns off 194 days and was well beaten when last seen. Arctic Bresil looked interesting as a novice but has gone the wrong way; hard to fancy on current form.


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2. Trends, Timeform Notes, and Trainer Angles

Paul Nolan has trained 2 of the last 7 winners of this race and runs the unbeaten Farfromnowhere here.

Henry de Bromhead has a strong 22% strike rate at Wexford, but Arctic Bresil needs a revival.

This race often rewards fit, in-form hurdlers who can cope with a pace collapse – that brings Sunchart, Grimaud, and Club Manager into focus.

Several runners return from layoffs of 90+ days: The Big Doyen, Farfromnowhere, Jake Peter, Arctic Bresil. Market moves should be watched carefully, especially for those changing yards or with potential upside.



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3. Ratings (out of 10 based on adjusted form, track suitability, trainer form, pace suitability, and profile strength)

Sunchart – 8.5
Grimaud – 8
The Big Doyen – 7.5
Duke of Leggagh – 7.5
Farfromnowhere – 7
Club Manager – 6.5
Black Heather – 6
Any Road – 6
Jake Peter – 5.5
Arctic Bresil – 4.5


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4. Each-Way Angles

10 runners declared – each-way terms apply (3 places).
Grimaud and Club Manager appeal as the most interesting each-way angles. The former drops from Aintree level, and the latter has been running better than his form figures suggest and should enjoy a strong pace.


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5. Private Tissue Estimate

Sunchart – 3/1
Grimaud – 4/1
The Big Doyen – 6/1
Duke of Leggagh – 13/2
Farfromnowhere – 7/1
Club Manager – 10/1
Black Heather – 12/1
Any Road – 14/1
Jake Peter – 16/1
Arctic Bresil – 20/1


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Summary:
This looks a competitive and truly run Rated Hurdle. Sunchart has the best adjusted hurdles form and arrives race-fit from the Flat. Grimaud drops in grade and appeals as a strong each-way player for Elliott. The Big Doyen is respected back over hurdles but may not be suited by the anticipated pace collapse. Club Manager is the likely value runner if things fall his way late. Market moves should be watched closely for Farfromnowhere and Black Heather.

Stats 📊👇

Form and Statistical Standouts

Sunchart (Andrew Slattery / Mr A P Ryan)

Top 3 in multiple metrics: 67% win as favourite, 40% win in last 5, 30% win in last 10.

OR: Median class performer (previously ran off 128).

Trainer at track: 27%

Sire: Teofilo – no standout hurdle stats but consistent.

Rating signal: Strong profile and recent metrics.

Layoff: Active.
Mark: 8/10


Jake Peter (Mark Cahill / Mr C M Quirke 7lb)

67% win from last 3, 33% 1-year win rate.

Proven on the Flat but needs to prove stamina at this trip.

From stallion Intikhab – limited jumps success.

Layoff: Recently active.
Mark: 7.5/10


Farfromnowhere (Paul Nolan / Sean F O’Keeffe)

Damsire stat: Jeremy – 60% 5-year win rate.

Trainer in class: 16%, Days/Class combined: 22%

Some positive recent form lines.
Mark: 7/10


Grimaud (Gordon Elliott / Sam Ewing)

Trainer win/place 90d: 13%, Jockey: 13%

Trip suitability: 25% win rate at ±1f

Days since last run stat: 33% win rate

Sire: Zoffany – moderate jumps influence
Mark: 7/10


Black Heather (Gavin Cromwell / K M Donoghue)

Trainer 7d win rate: 36%, Top 90d form

Trip win rate: 25%, Dam sire Oscar: 22% trip-related win rate

90-day stat: 33% win rate

Recent runs suggest fitness, trainer in peak form
Mark: 7/10


Duke Of Leggagh (Michael Mulvany / S W Flanagan)

Recent win stats (last 10): 30%

Sire: Tough As Nails – limited jumps impact

Dam sire Key Of Luck: 17% track influence

Figures respectable but not top tier.
Mark: 6.5/10


The Big Doyen (Declan Queally / K C Sexton)

Class win rate: 33%, OR top 3 historically

Dam sire Fracas: 22% record at this race type

Trainer 30-day win: 25%

Off since last season – check market.
Mark: 6/10


Any Road (E J O’Grady / P T Enright)

Race type win rate: 33%, Class: 18%, Dam sire Oscar – reliable jumper stats

Trainer figures moderate.

Could improve for trip/class combo but little recent data.
Mark: 5.5/10


Arctic Bresil (Henry de Bromhead / Darragh O’Keeffe)

Trainer: 13% 90d, 14% 1yr, Jockey/trainer combo: 17%

Sire Blue Bresil: 50% track win rate

Profile inconsistent despite high expectations

Not run recently – market could be revealing.
Mark: 5.5/10


Club Manager (Ross O’Sullivan / D Meyler)

Sire Nathaniel: 16% trip win rate, Dam sire Averti: 20%

Career profile light on jumps performance.

Active jockey with 40% 7-day strike rate, but limited overall yard form.
Mark: 5/10



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Trainers with Standout Stats

Cromwell (Black Heather): 36% win last 7 days

Slattery (Sunchart): 27% win at track

Nolan (Farfromnowhere): 22% Days/Class

De Bromhead (Arctic Bresil): Track influence, but moderate current form