Pace Forecast: Even
Draw Bias: Against High
Pace Note: Those that race prominently are generally favoured over this trip, particularly with a steady or even pace scenario.


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Strongest Contenders, Dangers & Notables

NUTMEG (IRE) – Timeform Adjusted Rating: 91
The standout on adjusted ratings. Noted as suited by the pace setup; Timeform suggests a prominent position will aid her cause. She shaped with definite promise on debut and could improve.

BOTH OF US (IRE) – Adj. Rating: 88
Second best on figures but flagged as likely disadvantaged by the pace setup. Tends to race further back, which may blunt her finish. Still merits respect on debut effort.

BEN DORAIN – Adj. Rating: 86
Lightly raced and shaped better than the bare result at Newmarket. This slightly easier race and turning track might suit. Profile has an upward trajectory.

DESERT GLORY – Adj. Rating: 85
Two decent placed efforts already and running to a consistent level. Enters calculations on experience and race fitness alone.

Interesting Outsider – MUKHABARA (IRE)
Debutant for the Crisfords, who are operating at a 19% strike rate with 3yo newcomers in 2024–25. Dam was Listed-placed. Trainer/jockey combo is in fair form.


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Significant Profile and Trend Notes

NUTMEG receives a pace-boosted mention from Timeform’s comment section.

BEN DORAIN looks one for handicaps long term but today’s pace angle and surface could allow a bold showing.

Trainer Watch: The Crisfords, who run MUKHABARA, have had 2 previous winners in Kempton novice events since the start of last season.

No previous editions of this race with trainer repeats (split division).

LAYOFF ALERT: Watch for any market strength or drift on GREAT AXE, who returns from 191 days off. Trainer only 9% with such types off a break.



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Ratings out of 10 (based on adjusted rating, profile, suitability to pace, and trends):

NUTMEG (IRE) – 8/10

BOTH OF US (IRE) – 7/10

BEN DORAIN – 7.5/10

DESERT GLORY – 7/10

MUKHABARA (IRE) – 6.5/10 (interesting newcomer)

GREAT AXE – 5/10 (long layoff, watch market)

KARABABA – 5/10 (well beaten twice, no pace edge)

FAITHFUL SURF – 4.5/10 (modest debut, no trainer strike evidence)

HOLKHAM BAY – 4/10 (green on debut, no standout stats)

URBAN SOUL (IRE) – 3/10 (well held both starts)


Note: Market support for runners off a 90+ day break like GREAT AXE should be watched closely. Also note any support for in-form yard runners such as MUKHABARA.


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Each-Way Angle

10 runners declared, so each-way betting applies.
The most appealing at bigger odds would be BEN DORAIN, who may appreciate this smaller-field scenario and has shown signs of ability in stronger races.


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Private Tissue Estimate

NUTMEG (IRE) – 5/2

BEN DORAIN – 7/2

BOTH OF US (IRE) – 9/2

DESERT GLORY – 6/1

MUKHABARA (IRE) – 7/1

GREAT AXE – 14/1

KARABABA – 20/1

FAITHFUL SURF – 22/1

HOLKHAM BAY – 25/1

URBAN SOUL (IRE) – 33/1

Stats 📊👇

🔍 Trainer & Jockey Trends

Roger Varian (Khafiz) has a 33% strike rate with Jack Mitchell (trainer/jockey pairing), and a 21% record at Kempton. Strong profile in this type of race.

Owen Burrows (Booming) shows a 30% win rate in the last 90 days and a 29% record at this trip. Also has a healthy 26% return stat.

John & Thady Gosden (Spy Chief) bring in a solid 25% strike over the past 7 days.

Jack Mitchell (riding Khafiz) has a 23% strike with Varian, a key pairing at this level.

Finley Marsh (Booming) has a 33% win rate in the last 7 days.



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🧬 Breeding Pointers

Khafiz (New Bay × Hala Hala): Bred for this surface and trip, with New Bay yielding strong results on synthetics.

Spy Chief (Kingman × Shirocco Star): Dam was Group-placed, and Kingman progeny often excel over 7f to a mile.

Booming (Night Of Thunder): Backed by elite sire stats – 19% over 7f, 24% in trainer combos, and 18% on the surface.

Both Of Us (Magna Grecia): Dam Intermittent has a notable 67% class stat – quietly intriguing.

Nutmeg (Kodiac): Reliable sprint/mile source but slightly behind on deeper profile scores.

Lastchancezouloon (Zoustar): Breeding ok for 7f but likely more exposed in this company.

Kamaway (Kameko): Pedigree suggests improvement may come over further. Early days though.



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🧠 Notable Horse Profile Indicators

Khafiz – 7/4

The standout statistically. Strongest combined ratings, trainer/jockey combo, and breeding match-up for surface and trip. Could be tough to beat.


Spy Chief – 11/4

Clear danger. Kingman colt with a quality dam. Well-bred and trained. Expected to improve sharply from debut if green.


Nutmeg – 100/30

Placed on both starts, and now steps up with David Egan booked. Solid but has had two goes already.


Both Of Us – 6/1

May be overpriced. Dam side is impressive in this class, and Cacique influence adds a touch of stamina. Each-way player.


Booming – 40/1

Sire/dam combo suggests real promise. Trainer in strong form. A big price considering pedigree power. Dark horse.


Uniting / Lastchancezouloon / Kamaway

Have some okay individual elements, but none jump off the page on overall profile. Likely to need more time.


Pacific Prince / Cameley Days

Exposed on breeding and profile strength. Little encouragement statistically.



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📌 Summary

Main Contenders:

Khafiz – professional setup, ticks most boxes.

Spy Chief – top pedigree, expected to progress quickly.

Nutmeg – consistent type, though form exposed.

Both Of Us – good dam stats, value angle.


Interesting Outsider:

Booming – Night Of Thunder x Invincible Spirit, strong return and surface trends. Ignore the price at your peril.