Pace Forecast: Very Weak
Pace/Draw Angles: This is a small field and the pace is expected to be slow, which typically favours those who race prominently or can control the tempo. GREAT PEPPER is expected to be well positioned tactically compared to hold-up horses like COQOLINO.


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2. Contenders, Dangers, Outsiders, and Trends

Strongest Contender

COQOLINO (FR) – Timeform adjusted rating 137x. Returned to form to win a novice event over 17f at Cartmel just 4 days ago, jumping better than usual. Steps back up in trip, which suits, and handles soft. Carries a 7lb penalty but is proven under quick turnarounds and could follow up in similar conditions.


Main Dangers

GREAT PEPPER (FR) – Fairly useful hurdler, made a promising start to chasing when third at Carlisle in February. That was over an inadequate trip (2m), and he’s been freshened up since. Breathing operation prior to that effort and should appreciate this stiffer stamina test. Well suited by the pace setup. Trainer James Moffatt has a 26% strike rate in chases over intermediate trips.

GALE MAHLER (IRE) – Useful mare over hurdles last season. Won a Listed novice at Galway and a novice at Ayr in April. Flopped when turned out quickly at Perth. Makes chase debut here—trainer in form, and Brian Hughes booked, but best watched until her jumping is proven.


Interesting Outsiders

MILITAIRE – Lightly raced chaser with fair form. Four chase starts this season all respectable, and likely to race up with the pace. However, he’s often traded much shorter in-running than he’s finished. Jockey Sean Bowen is a positive, and Warren Greatrex is currently a hot trainer with a strong summer strike rate (23%).

HURRICANE ALI (IRE) – Stablemate of Great Pepper and formerly a fairly useful hurdler. Was third behind Coqolino here four days ago. Remains opposable for win purposes, having struggled to land races at this level for some time.


Significant Trends and Notes

4 of the last 5 renewals had fewer than 7 runners; 3 of those were won by the favourite or second favourite.

Cartmel’s layout often favours those who travel well and jump accurately under pressure—positive for Coqolino and Great Pepper, who have proven ability in small-field tactical races.

First-time chasers (like Gale Mahler) often find Cartmel’s fences challenging, especially when pressure is on from seasoned rivals.



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3. Runner Ratings (Out of 10)

COQOLINO (FR) – 8/10

GREAT PEPPER (FR) – 8/10

MILITAIRE – 7/10

GALE MAHLER (IRE) – 6/10 (jumping unknowns on debut)

HURRICANE ALI (IRE) – 6/10


Market Watch:

GALE MAHLER makes her chase debut and returns from a 35-day break – any strength in the market would be notable.

MILITAIRE returns from a 60-day absence and has a profile that suggests he’s vulnerable in the finish—watch for any strong support or notable drift.



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4. Each-Way Angles

Not applicable – field contains only 5 runners.


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5. Private Tissue Estimate

COQOLINO (FR) – 2/1

GREAT PEPPER (FR) – 5/2

MILITAIRE – 4/1

GALE MAHLER (IRE) – 9/2

HURRICANE ALI (IRE) – 6/1

Stats📊👇

🧠 Trainer & Jockey Angles

W J Greatrex (trains Militaire) is 23% over 30 days and 38% at Cartmel, showing excellent track form.

James Moffatt (trains Great Pepper and Hurricane Ali) has a 25% strike over both course and distance.

B M R Haslam (trains Coqolino) is 25% in the last 7 days.

Sean Bowen (rides Militaire) is on fire — 32% win rate in the past 7 days and consistently over 20% in all key categories.

Brian Hughes (rides Gale Mahler) is 44% in draw combo and 17% over this trip — Kempton and Cartmel rides included.

R P McLernon (rides Coqolino) is 23% at the track.



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🏇 Horse Profile Standouts

Gale Mahler – 4/1

Very strong on win rates: 47% career, 42% past year, 75% at or near this trip, 29% on going, and 67% when favourite.

Also flags on recent run and return-from-break (33%). Ticks most boxes.


Militaire – 2/1

Trainer/jockey combo is red-hot. While this is a stat-light profile (lacks full sample coverage), Sean Bowen boosts the confidence.

Yard has a 38% strike at Cartmel, which matters here.


Great Pepper – 7/2

Solid overall win profile: 40% in last five and last ten starts. Should enjoy the trip and may be underestimated.

Light on distance/track stats but a consistent chaser.


Coqolino – 7/2

Statistically one of the most well-rounded: 33% in class, going, recent form, and return window. 25% at Cartmel. Reliable handicapper type.


Hurricane Ali – 6/1

Flags only on monthly strike rate (43%) and limited chase data. May be more exposed at this level and trip.



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🧬 Breeding Stats (Sires and Dams)

Mahler (sire of Gale Mahler) has a 30% strike over track and trip.

Great Pretender (sire of Great Pepper) supports stamina with an 18% strike over this distance.

French Fifteen (sire of Coqolino) stands out for class (21%) and track (20%) suitability.

La Dame Brune (dam of Militaire) has 17% over race type — quietly solid.



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🗺 Track and Tactical Notes

Cartmel is a sharp, left-handed track with a unique rhythm and tight finish. Proven ability to handle turns and pressure matters.

Gale Mahler and Coqolino look tactically versatile. Militaire may push forward with Bowen.

Hurricane Ali is more of a hold-up type and may struggle if the field crawls.