Draw Bias: Slight disadvantage to low numbers
Pace Forecast: Weak
Pace Angle: Could be muddling – runners with tactical speed or prominent running styles may hold an advantage, though no obvious front-runner is confirmed.


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1. Strongest Contenders

KILMEADEN (Donnacha Aidan O’Brien) – Timeform 87p
Placed in two maidens (latest over this trip), chasing home subsequent Listed winner Carmers. Shaped like the stayer in the field and should progress further with cheekpieces retained. The clear form pick on adjusted ratings.

PHAROS FREEDOM (P. Twomey) – Timeform 87 (estimated)
Expensive yearling for a yard operating at a 30% strike rate over 10f+ this season. No form yet, but the dam was placed over this trip, and Twomey has strong record with well-prepped newcomers. A stable to respect with debutants.

FACTUAL FACT (H. de Bromhead) – Timeform 84
Bumper winner by a half-brother to Group performers, returns from a 801-day absence. Trainer is capable of readying one off a break, but this is a long layoff and market support would be significant.

ARDASHIR (Noel Meade) – Timeform 82 (unexposed)
Well-bred, €120,000 yearling, debuts here under Colin Keane. No racecourse experience, but the family suggests staying potential. May improve plenty for this experience.


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2. Main Dangers and Outsiders of Interest

KASGANI (D.K. Weld) – Timeform 79p
Shaped with promise when fifth at Leopardstown behind Roosevelt. Bred to stay well and still learning. Yard’s runners can step forward sharply third time up. Each-way angle if field holds at 8+.

DELTA FORCE (Charles Byrnes) – Timeform 77
Solid bumper performer with a win and a place. Faces a new challenge on the Flat, but the ability is there and any market strength would be notable from this yard.

LIGHT UP THE DARK (J.P. O’Brien) – Timeform 75p
Dual bumper winner who showed promise on Flat debut at Ballinrobe when not ideally positioned. Should improve and is interesting stepped up to 1m4f.


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3. Trends, Trainer Notes & Timeform Insights

P. Twomey is in red-hot form and has a 30% strike rate over 10f+ in early season.

Charles Byrnes has won this race previously (2017, 2019) and is respected with Flat runners in maiden events.

Watch for big drifts or support on Factual Fact, who returns from a 801-day break.

Delta Force and Light Up The Dark are returning quickly from bumper runs – that angle can be significant if well backed.



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4. Runner Ratings (out of 10)

No. Horse Rating

1 Albert Hirsch 2 – Outclassed on evidence
2 Ardashir 6 – Unraced, good pedigree, top jockey
3 Moment Of Prayer 1 – Out of depth
4 Whosethebestboy 3 – Little form, modest bumper intro
5 Factual Fact 7 – Interesting type if ready; market crucial
6 Liss Eile 2 – No recent promise
7 Ceol Draiochta NR
8 Kilmeaden 9 – Strong form, clear standard setter
9 Captain Hanley 2 – Poor recent effort, hard to fancy
10 JR Mahon 4 – Limited promise, some scope to progress
11 Pharos Freedom 8 – Hot trainer, good pedigree, debutant
12 Kasgani 7 – Scope to improve, decent run latest
13 Delta Force 6 – Fair bumper form, Flat debut
14 Light Up The Dark 6 – Dual bumper winner, showed promise latest



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5. Private Tissue Estimate

Horse Price

Kilmeaden 2/1
Pharos Freedom 3/1
Factual Fact 6/1
Kasgani 13/2
Light Up The Dark 8/1
Delta Force 10/1
Ardashir 12/1
JR Mahon 20/1
Whosethebestboy 50/1
Captain Hanley 66/1
Liss Eile 100/1
Moment Of Prayer 150/1
Albert Hirsch 150/1


Field of 13 – Each-way terms apply.
Advice: Kilmeaden sets the standard, but keep a close watch on market support for Pharos Freedom and Factual Fact. Kasgani offers a credible each-way angle if holding 8+ runners.

Using the HorseRaceBase and RapidView data provided here is Stats based look.

Trainer & Jockey Trends

Hot Trainers:

P Twomey: 33% (7d), 33% (30d), 36% (90d), 26% (1yr), 46% at class

Donnacha O’Brien: 33% (7d)

D K Weld: 20% at distance

Noel Meade: 17% track SR


Hot Jockeys:

W J Lee: 20% (7d), 16% (1yr)

J M Sheridan: 24% track, 20% trainer/jockey combo

C T Keane: 18% race type, 15% class



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Notable Runners Overview

(Sorted by top performer tags, suitability, and breeding relevance)


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1. Light Up The Dark (10/1)

Trainer: Joseph P. O’Brien | Jockey: Dylan B. McMonagle

Top Performer in: Career, Last3, Last5, Last10, 1Yr, RType (67%)

Sire: Camelot | Dam: Tiptree (Duke Of Marmalade)

Breeding Positives: Dam excels on today’s going and race type

Recent Figures: Very solid run consistency

Suitability: Strong case on all fronts — multiple flags, consistent form, and suitable conditions
Rating: 8.5/10



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2. Pharos Freedom (11/4)

Trainer: P Twomey | Jockey: W J Lee

Trainer is red-hot, with elite class stats

Sire: Starspangledbanner | Dam: Marfa Lights (by Galileo)

Breeding: Dam side proven on going and class

Top Combo: W J Lee / P Twomey – 32% win rate
Rating: 8/10



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3. Kilmeaden (4/5)

Trainer: Donnacha O’Brien | Jockey: P A Harnett (5lb claim)

Sire: Galileo | Dam: Aegean Girl (Henrythenavigator)

Market leader and full of promise on pedigree

No flags yet, but profiles like a strong improver

Trainer in-form
Rating: 7.5/10



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4. Factual Fact (10/1)

Trainer: H. De Bromhead | Jockey: G F Carroll

Sire: Authorized – very strong stats: 25% win at distance, 19% race type, 33% track

Dam: Sweet Rose (by New Approach)

Breeding positive for today’s trip and conditions
Rating: 7/10



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5. Ardashir (12/1)

Trainer: Noel Meade | Jockey: C T Keane

Sire: Persian King (18% at class)

Dam: Kuna Yala (Manduro – strong at distance/trip/track)

Breeding standout, particularly on dam line
Rating: 6.5/10



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6. Delta Force (20/1)

Trainer: C Byrnes | Jockey: Sean Davis

Top Performers: Going (Dalkova 44%), Track (Galileo, 14%)

Sire: Fastnet Rock | Dam: Dalkova

Pedigree suggests late improvement possible
Rating: 6/10



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Others Briefly:

Kasgani: By Sea The Stars out of Kastasa. Scopey type, strong damline. Rating: 6/10

Jr Mahon: Out of Wootton Bassett; going stats fair. Rating: 5.5/10

Whosethebestboy: Dam by Dutch Art (good at class), sire moderate. Rating: 5/10

Captain Hanley, Moment Of Prayer, Albert Hirsch, Liss Eile: No flags, poor breeding angles for conditions. Rating: 3–4/10 range



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Breeding Trends Summary

Top Sire by Distance: Authorized (25%)

Top Dam Sire by Going: Getaway (20%)

Top Overall Breeder: Authorized (across track, race type, going, and trip)



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Conclusions & Value Angles

Main Contenders:

Light Up The Dark: Strongest profile, most suitability tags, top performer in multiple metrics

Pharos Freedom: Trainer in elite form, good pedigree, optimal jockey

Kilmeaden: Short odds, full of promise, but lacks flagged data for now


Interesting Outsider:

Factual Fact: Strong Authorized angle, bred to stay and handle ground


Breeding Watch:

Ardashir: Strong dam stats for distance and going suggest potential improvement



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Summary Ratings

Horse Suitability Form Tags Breeding Trainer/Jockey Rating

Light Up The Dark 4/4 5/5 4/5 3/5 8.5
Pharos Freedom 3/4 3/5 4/5 5/5 8.0
Kilmeaden 3/4 1/5 5/5 4/5 7.5
Factual Fact 3/4 0/5 5/5 3/5 7.0
Ardashir 2/4 0/5 5/5 3/5 6.5