The pace is forecast to be strong, with several forward-going types declared. Over this extended trip, a strong early gallop typically favours hold-up horses, and those with proven finishing speed under patient rides often come to the fore.

Draw is not a major factor at this staying distance. The shape of the race suggests late closers will be favoured, particularly if the leaders overdo things.


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2. Contenders, Dangers, Outsiders & Key Profile Notes

Strongest Contenders:

Caprelo: Ran better than the result when fifth over course and distance last time, not ideally placed in a steadily-run race. He is well handicapped on past form and represents a trainer with a good record in staying handicaps at this venue.

Orchestra: Won over this course and trip in April and ran well in a stronger contest at Ascot next time. He races prominently, which could be a slight disadvantage in this strongly-run renewal, but his form is solid and consistent.

Kingdom Of Stars: Lightly raced and open to progress after a promising reappearance when fourth here behind Gooloogong. Bred to stay well and entitled to come forward from that run.


Main Dangers:

Cinnodin: Won over this course and distance last month and wasn’t disgraced behind Orchestra on his next start. He’s a hold-up horse who should be suited by a strongly-run race and is trained by Richard Hughes, who excels with stayers on the all-weather.

Capone: Veteran with sound staying credentials and just behind Gooloogong last time. He tends to race prominently but remains capable off this mark.


Interesting Outsiders:

Gooloogong: Beat Capone narrowly last time at Kempton. Will be popular on the back of that win, but the race was run to suit him, and he may not get the same tactical edge here.

Judgementofsolomon: Dual 2024 winner but has been inconsistent since switching to hurdling. He returns to the Flat here and is now with a new yard. The market may provide useful clues.


Trainer Watch & Trends:

Richard Hughes (Cinnodin) and Hughie Morrison (Caprelo) are noted for success with stayers at Kempton.

George Baker (Gooloogong) has shown a strong return when sending just one flat runner to a meeting.

Winners in recent renewals have included unexposed types and improving 4yo stayers, a profile that fits Kingdom Of Stars.



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3. Ratings (Out of 10)

Caprelo – 8.5

Orchestra – 8

Kingdom Of Stars – 7.5

Cinnodin – 7.5

Capone – 7.5

Gooloogong – 7

Judgementofsolomon – 6.5

Kissininthebackrow – 6

Abraaj – 5.5

Lusaka – 5

Ghasham – 4.5


Note: Watch closely for any market support for returning horses such as Ghasham, who is second-up after a long absence. Likewise, a drift on exposed runners like Gooloogong or Capone would be a concern given how race dynamics may change. Cinnodin and Caprelo are tactically better placed this time.


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4. Each-Way Angles

With 11 runners, each-way terms apply (3 places).

Caprelo makes appeal based on his recent effort and favourable race shape.

Kingdom Of Stars is less exposed than most and could progress now fully tuned.



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5. Private Tissue Estimate

Caprelo – 4/1

Orchestra – 5/1

Kingdom Of Stars – 6/1

Cinnodin – 7/1

Capone – 7/1

Gooloogong – 8/1

Judgementofsolomon – 12/1

Kissininthebackrow – 20/1

Abraaj – 20/1

Lusaka – 25/1

Ghasham – 25/1

Stats 📊👇

Race Setup

A Class 5 staying handicap over two miles on Kempton’s Standard to Slow surface. Tactical rides and proven stamina are key here. Historically, prominent racers hold an edge when the pace is modest, though a true-run gallop can bring late closers into it.


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Trainer and Jockey Stats

Richard Hughes (trainer of Cinnodin) is in cracking form: 33% winners in the last 7 days, 23% strike at Kempton, and strong returns over this distance and trip-track combinations.

Finley Marsh, who rides Cinnodin, has a 40% strike rate at the track/trip combination and a 31% win rate when paired with the horse.

Oisin Murphy, booked for Capone, has top-level stats across all key categories — 33% in the past week and 26% in this class. His 45% win rate on draw combination rides is particularly notable.

George Baker and Jack Mitchell (trainer/jockey of Gooloogong) boast a 30% win rate together, and Baker is 25% over the last 90 days.



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Horses with Notable Profiles

Gooloogong stands out with a 67% win rate from his last three runs and a similarly high strike on today’s return timeframe. He’s also a 50% winner at this class and ticks the box over nearby trip distances. Recent form is the strongest in the field.

Cinnodin has excellent track and distance stats, including a 40% strike rate at Kempton and a 50% win rate over this exact track/trip. The Richard Hughes stable is red-hot, and the breeding stats for both sire and dam are well suited to this test.

Orchestra comes in with solid form over staying trips and shows a 33% strike rate at similar distances and in this month historically. The O’Brien stable (trainer and jockey) is in decent shape, though the horse may need to prove he’s fully settled at two miles.

Capone benefits from the booking of Oisin Murphy. He has a big rating uplift on rider stats alone, though his profile on surface and trip is less compelling than others.

Kissininthebackrow is an outsider but interesting from a breeding angle. She’s won over this trip and her dam and sire stats show strength on this surface and stamina-suited races. If the race collapses late, she’s not without a squeak.

Abraaj has decent figures for class and distance class combinations, and was a 67% winner when previously sent off favourite. He’s been running at a lower level but has hidden statistical support.


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Breeding Notes

Anodin (sire of Cinnodin) has a 40% strike at Kempton over this trip.

Authorized (damsire of Cinnodin) adds staying power and has a 29% track-distance strike.

Golden Horn and Sixties Icon bring a strong staying profile through their progeny (notably for Orchestra and Kissininthebackrow respectively).



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Tactical Concerns

Hold-up horses like Capone, Abraaj, and possibly Orchestra will need luck in running. If the race isn’t strongly run, those ridden prominently or with proven stamina and rhythm at Kempton are favoured. Gooloogong and Cinnodin may be better positioned if the pace isn’t strong.