Pace and Draw Summary
This 10-runner maiden is predicted to be run at a weak pace, which may favour those able to settle prominently and quicken. Horses with tactical speed will be at an advantage, particularly drawn low to middle. High draws are a slight negative at this trip on this ground. Horses like Mister Winston and Participle may benefit, whereas Mischief Rule might be less suited.


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Strongest Contenders

Participle (Ralph Beckett, Rossa Ryan) – 92P Timeform, Rating: 9/10
Shaped best on debut last August when just headed late by a subsequent listed scorer. That form reads strongly and she’s bred to improve plenty. Given her trainer’s strong record with improving fillies, and the fact she holds a ‘P’ symbol from Timeform, she looks a key player if fit after 288 days.

Mister Winston (Andrew Balding, Oisin Murphy) – 91 Timeform, Rating: 8/10
Progressing steadily with each start and posted an improved effort when second at Chester. He had to race wide there and led until headed by a progressive winner. Should handle conditions, and being tactically versatile helps in a race lacking pace.

Influential (Roger Varian, Silvestre De Sousa) – 81P Timeform, Rating: 7/10
Finished fifth at Yarmouth despite clear signs of inexperience. The visual impression and pedigree suggest he’ll improve markedly, and Varian’s yard is in top form. Drawn well and should be handier to the pace today.

Fan Club (William Haggas, Tom Marquand) – 75P Timeform, Rating: 7/10
Only start came in a big Doncaster maiden where he was not knocked about but did his best work late. Has a good pedigree and Haggas is 25% at Haydock since 2021. Should come forward plenty but drawn wide.


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Others of Note

Jenubiyah (Roger Varian, Aidan Keeley) – 74P Timeform, Rating: 6/10
Showed promise in both runs, including a staying-on third at Redcar last time. Bred for further, but may not get the pace required here. Still, a place wouldn’t surprise.

Love Beach (James Fanshawe, Daniel Muscutt) – 78P Timeform, Rating: 6/10
Ran well in heavy ground at Nottingham and should appreciate better going, but may need another run to sharpen. Trainer not known for first-time-out winners off a break.

Carmichael (IRE) (William Haggas, Adam Farragher) – Timeform NR, Rating: 5/10
Interesting pedigree, being a half-brother to Lilac Road. However, he’s been off 85 days and is likely to improve for the run.

Mum’s Angel (Clive Cox, Callum Shepherd) – 71 Timeform, Rating: 4/10
Travelled well for a long way on debut over 7f, but shaped like a sprinter. Up to a mile here and may not stay as strongly as others.

Mischief Rule (David O’Meara, Clifford Lee) – Timeform NR, Rating: 3/10
Well-bred but makes debut at age 4. Market will guide but his dam was a stayer and this could be a prep.

Forest Caper (David O’Meara, David Nolan) – Timeform NR, Rating: 3/10
Also debuting as a 4yo, and though from a strong family, he’s another who may be using this as an educational outing.


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Trainer Trends & Notable Angles

Ralph Beckett (Participle) has a strong record with second-time-out fillies.

Andrew Balding (Mister Winston) continues in good form and often strikes in late-spring maidens.

Roger Varian (Influential, Jenubiyah) has multiple runners and a 20% strike rate with maidens this season.

William Haggas has a 25% win rate at Haydock since 2021.



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Hold-Up Risks / In-Running Comments

Fan Club and Jenubiyah are both likely to be held up and will need gaps to appear.

Mister Winston has led before and could dictate if no one else goes on.

Participle travelled strongly last time and should be ridden handily.



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Ratings Out of 10

Participle – 9

Mister Winston – 8

Influential – 7

Fan Club – 7

Jenubiyah – 6

Love Beach – 6

Carmichael – 5

Mum’s Angel – 4

Mischief Rule – 3

Forest Caper – 3



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Each-Way Angle

None advised – only 10 runners and top 4 appear well clear on adjusted and profile-based figures.


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Private Tissue Estimate

Participle – 2/1

Mister Winston – 4/1

Influential – 6/1

Fan Club – 7/1

Jenubiyah – 10/1

Love Beach – 12/1

Carmichael – 16/1

Mum’s Angel – 20/1

Mischief Rule – 33/1

Forest Caper – 40/1



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Market Watch Advice:

Participle and Carmichael both return off breaks – support would be meaningful.

Mister Winston may shorten again if backed like last time.

Fan Club is another to monitor given Haggas’ Haydock record.

Be cautious on debutants Mischief Rule and Forest Caper – drifts would not surprise.

Stats view

🔹 Hot Trainers

Ralph Beckett

27% strike rate over 7 days

21% over 1 year

Dam (Present Tense) of Participle also carries strong pedigree suitability


Roger Varian

21% over 30 days, 27% trainer/jockey (TD) strike rate with De Sousa

Trains both Influential and Jenubiyah


W J Haggas

29% at track, 24% in class

Trains both Fan Club and Carmichael



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🔹 Hot Jockeys

Oisin Murphy

33% over last 7 days

31% at Haydock

Rides Mister Winston


Silvestre De Sousa

33% TD strike rate with Varian

Rides Influential


Rossa Ryan

Consistent form; partners Beckett’s hot runner Participle



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🔹 Top Performer Horses (Based on Suitability Stats)

Participle (Ralph Beckett / Rossa Ryan)

By Frankel out of Present Tense (by Bated Breath)

Dam side is strong for class and going, with pedigree hitting 20%+ at track and trip

Full of “strong” suitability markers including DS/Trk, DS/TRT, and DS/TD

Top-rated horse on breeding and stable form


Fan Club (W J Haggas / Tom Marquand)

By Too Darn Hot (elite 39% S/TRT and 40% S/TD strike rates)

Dam (Devotion) has stamina and class in her page

Yard in solid form; figures suggest scope for improvement


Influential (Roger Varian / Silvestre De Sousa)

By Wootton Bassett, out of Shenanigans (Arcano)

Several strong flags on trainer and dam-side suitability

High-class connections and capable TD combo


Mister Winston (A M Balding / Oisin Murphy)

Well-bred by Churchill, and Murphy is red-hot

Full of “fair to solid” stats across distance and ground

Worth noting that pedigree scores well for maturing types


Jenubiyah (Roger Varian / Aidan Keeley)

Another Too Darn Hot filly, out of a Sea The Stars dam

Dam (Dujaa) fits strongly on going, distance, and general progression stats

Profiled similarly to Fan Club, but with less TD firepower



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🔹 Breeding Highlights

Too Darn Hot: Sire producing excellent novice milers; elite stats for trip and trainer/race type combos (S/TD: 40%, S/TRT: 39%)

Frankel: Strong for track (27%) and all-round middle-distance form — Participle benefits directly

Lavender Lane (dam of Carmichael): 33% at distance, 32% on going

Forest Crown (dam of Forest Caper): 43% at this class



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🔹 Summary

Participle is the standout here based on trainer form, pedigree, and suitability stats — a strong profile that’s hard to knock. Fan Club and Influential rate as the main threats, both bred for this kind of trip and from powerful connections. Mister Winston and Jenubiyah add depth, each with notable jockey/trainer support and sire power, but perhaps needing a step forward.

This maiden could be a race where breeding and stable momentum tell the story. If Participle runs to his paper profile, he’ll be tough to beat — but any signs of drift in the market might open things up for the likes of Fan Club or Influential to pounce.