Going: Good to Soft
Field Size: 13 runners
Pace Forecast: Strong
Draw Bias: Not a factor here
Pace/Dynamics Angle: Although hold-up runners are typically disadvantaged over this trip at Chester, a strong early gallop could level the playing field. Prominent types with tactical pace remain preferred, though closers could get involved late if there’s overcooking up front.


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Contender Analysis

Strongest Contenders

Surrey Belle (Timeform 88, OR 78) – Rapidly improving mare and thriving for new yard; strong-finishing second here last time behind a progressive winner. Races prominently, acts on all ground, and will stay well. Leading chance.

Percy Shelley (TF 91, OR 80) – Caught the eye on his second start for James Owen when third at Goodwood; tends to be held up, which could be a risk, but the strong pace helps. SDS booked again.

William Walton (TF 92, OR 78) – Lightly raced, with stamina-laden pedigree (brother to Waldgeist). Still learning, shaped as if in need of further latest, and now up in trip with headgear on. Big potential improver.


Main Dangers

Grey Fable (TF 90, OR 68) – In excellent recent form and has proven course form; stayed on well behind a good one here latest. Well treated on old Irish form too.

Dreams Adozen (TF 89, OR 74) – Likes to bowl along and ran solidly at this track last time. Could be vulnerable late if others get tow into it.


Interesting Outsiders

Trojan Sun (TF 85, OR 61) – Recent Musselburgh winner who wasn’t disgraced off higher mark last time. Still lightly raced over staying trips and receives weight all round.

Lagoon Nebula (TF 87+, OR 69) – Cheltenham juvenile hurdle winner now back on the Flat. That form gives scope off this mark if adapting to rhythm of Chester.



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Additional Notes

Pace Angle/Run Styles: William Walton, Surrey Belle and Dreams Adozen are likely to be prominent; Percy Shelley, Grey Fable and Lagoon Nebula are all hold-up types and may need luck in running.

Trainers with a positive profile:

James Owen (Percy Shelley) – +£36 LSP when sending a single runner to a flat meeting.

Owen Burrows (William Walton) – +£30 LSP with single runners on the day.

Karl Thornton (Grey Fable) – recent Chester form a plus.


Layoff Watch:

Hydroplane (736 days off) – has ability but enormous absence; likely to need the run.

State Legend and It’s Good To Laugh – both off over a year prior to recent runs; cautious approach unless market speaks strongly.




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Marks Out of 10 (TimeWise Assessment)

Horse Score (/10)

Surrey Belle 9
Percy Shelley 8
William Walton 8
Grey Fable 7
Dreams Adozen 6
Lagoon Nebula 6
Trojan Sun 6
Oman 5
Wind Your Neck In 4
State Legend 4
It’s Good To Laugh 3
Hydroplane 2
Perseus Way 1



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Each-Way Angle (13 runners)

Trojan Sun – on the up, and running well in defeat. Light weight and strong stamina credentials.

Grey Fable – in good nick and thriving at this venue.



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Tissue Estimate (Top 6)

Surrey Belle – 4/1

Percy Shelley – 5/1

William Walton – 6/1

Grey Fable – 7/1

Dreams Adozen – 8/1

Trojan Sun – 10/1



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Keep an eye on the market for any late support for the long-absent Hydroplane or recent improver Lagoon Nebula. If there’s a drift on Surrey Belle, that might hint at handbrake status after an aggressive campaign. Conversely, if Percy Shelley is nibbled at again, that could confirm intent.