Pace and Draw Angles:

The pace is very strong with several habitual front-runners engaged — Tawaazon, Never Shout Never, Free Solo, and Linger For Longer among those expected to force the issue. Low draws are favoured at this track and trip, a factor that suits Free Solo (stall 1) and Velvet Skies (stall 3). With the likely early burn-up, closers drawn low could be well positioned.


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Main Contenders & Dangers:

Never Shout Never (TFR 92) – Consistent and running close to form; a narrow 4th behind Tawaazon last time, now 3lb better off. However, as a confirmed pace-presser, the expected strong early gallop might compromise him. Solid profile, but draw and tactics will be key.

Velvet Skies (TFR 82) – Improving and ran a career-best 2nd in a big field at the Curragh (27 runners) last time. Ideally drawn in stall 3, can settle off the hot pace and pick them off late.

Tawaazon (TFR 85+) – Won that same Naas race by finishing off strongly despite dropping the whip. Likes to be handy but could be caught up in the pace war. Still respected but vulnerable late.

Nezeeh (TFR 86) – Back-to-back strong runs in May, including a Cork win and close 2nd at Fairyhouse just three days ago. Solid and reliable; races handy, so will need to be tucked in early from a tricky draw (stall 2).

Kilmood Susan (TFR 86) – Lightly raced 3yo who chased home a progressive winner at Gowran. Could still have improvement to come but faces older sprinters now and may need further.

White Clover (TFR 85) – Shaped as if on the way back at the Curragh (5th in big field), and trainer Joseph Murphy has 2 past winners of this race. One to keep in mind at a price.

Free Solo (TFR 85) – Has run well in deeper fields recently, including a win over 7f. Has early speed and is drawn best of all, but likely to be involved in early speed and may not see it out.

Facethepuckout (TFR 90) – Has plenty of ability but returns off a 70-day break. Likely to be ridden with patience and may pick up late pieces. Could be suited by race shape and has won at Listowel before.

Rappell (TFR 85) – Best efforts have come when held up at sprint trips. Down the field last time, but will be better suited by 6f and strong tempo. Overshadowed by more solid types though.

Mercurial (TFR 89+) – Course winner last year, but poor both starts this season. Drops back from a mile and needs to show more spark to feature here.

Ramiro (TFR 82) – Won this race last year but comes off a 232-day layoff. That said, trainer Hilary McLoughlin shows a £100+ level stakes profit when sending one runner only to flat meetings. Market watch essential.

Gerrit’s Gem, Skillman Ave, Linger For Longer – All have bits and pieces of form, but none arrive in form and would need market moves or collapses up front to get involved.



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Hold-Up Types Who Could Be Suited by Pace:

Velvet Skies, Facethepuckout, Rappell, White Clover
— All likely to be helped by strong early fractions, especially if they avoid traffic from mid-pack. Draw bias still favours low, so Velvet Skies is ideally positioned.



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Trainers with Past Winners:

Joseph G. Murphy (White Clover) – 2 winners in past 7 runnings of this race.



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Runners Rated out of 10:

Horse Rating /10

Velvet Skies 8.5
Never Shout Never 8
Tawaazon 8
Nezeeh 7.5
Kilmood Susan 7.5
White Clover 7
Free Solo 6.5
Facethepuckout 6.5
Rappell 6
Mercurial 5.5
Ramiro 5 (watch market)
Gerrit’s Gem 4.5
Skillman Ave 4.5
Linger For Longer 4



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Private Tissue Estimate:

Velvet Skies – 5/1

Never Shout Never – 6/1

Tawaazon – 13/2

Nezeeh – 7/1

Kilmood Susan – 8/1

White Clover – 10/1

Free Solo – 11/1

Facethepuckout – 12/1

Rappell – 14/1

Mercurial – 16/1

Ramiro – 16/1 (watch market)

Gerrit’s Gem – 25/1

Skillman Ave – 28/1

Linger For Longer – 33/1


Each-Way Angles: Field of 14 – each-way terms apply. Velvet Skies (well drawn, strong closer) and White Clover (improving, solid stable) are both playable E/W options at double figures.


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Summary:

This 6f handicap is set up by an expected pace collapse with four or more frontrunners engaged and a favourable low draw bias. Velvet Skies arrives in form, ideally drawn, and has a profile that suits today’s scenario. Never Shout Never is game and consistent but could be vulnerable late. Tawaazon remains in top form, but pace pressure may catch him out. Nezeeh and White Clover are in the right stables and could hit the frame. Ramiro is worth watching given stable trends but is hard to assess on return.

Market moves should be watched especially on Ramiro (232-day layoff), Facethepuckout (off 70 days), and Skillman Ave (3yo, now 2nd run back).