Pace / Tactical Overview:

With no confirmed front-runner bar the inconsistent Stormin Crossgales, the race is likely to be tactical and steadily run, favouring those able to race handily or make their own running. Hurricane Bay and Abingworth are the most likely to be positively placed and may have a distinct edge over Belargus and Trapista, who are typically held up. The pace angle could be decisive on a track where front-runners can be hard to peg back.


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Main Contenders & Noteworthy Profiles:

Abingworth (TFR 135x, 7/4)
Bids for a hat-trick after wins at Wincanton and Warwick, both well-run affairs at around this trip. Unseated 2 out when still in with a major shout at Worcester (10/3) and subsequently joined in-form James Owen. Strong traveller, tactically versatile, and now paired with Sean Bowen (39% on chase favourites). Big chance if jumping holds.

Hurricane Bay (TFR 131, 9/2)
Pulled up at Uttoxeter last time with a breathing issue but won nicely at Huntingdon in a small field beforehand. Likes to race prominently and could be well placed in a muddling race. Still has something to prove at this level, but the track should suit his build and style.

Trapista (TFR 129, 7/2)
Flat-track mare who ran well when second to Lady Jago at Ludlow in a similar race. Often flat mid-race but travels kindly and can quicken late. The weak pace might not suit her best, but she’s capable on her day and remains a potential improver at this level.

Hubrisko (TFR ?, 6/1)
Once useful for Willie Mullins but has shown little for new connections. Faded tamely last time at Plumpton and now gets cheekpieces off. Profile is regressive, though the trainer is quietly capable. Needs a leap of faith.

Belargus (TFR 132, 17/2)
Capable at this level and returned from a long absence with a fair run at Stratford, but he’s hard to catch right and needs a strong pace to be at his best. Fakenham might not play to his strengths and he’ll need luck from the back. Watch market.

Stormin Crossgales (TFR 127?, 12/1)
Useful at this level on his day and won here in a weak claimer in April. Pulled up when hanging badly at Aintree last time. Likely to try forcing tactics but isn’t straightforward, and stable switch hasn’t sparked improvement yet.



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Marks Out of Ten (Based on Form, TFR, Tactics, Suitability):

Horse Rating /10

Abingworth 8.5
Hurricane Bay 7.5
Trapista 7
Belargus 6.5
Stormin Crossgales 5.5
Hubrisko 5



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Trainers / Trends:

James Owen: Hot spell with chasers this month and good recent strike rate overall.

Nick Gifford: Profitable to follow with his sole chasers on a card; Belargus fits the angle (watch the market).

Past Winners: No standout trainer trends—winners have typically been race-fit and on decent ground form.



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Each-Way Angle (6 runners – no e/w terms):

None offered under current field size. However, Belargus would interest for place-only markets if there’s a strong gallop—though that looks unlikely.


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Private Tissue Estimate:

Abingworth – 15/8

Hurricane Bay – 3/1

Trapista – 9/2

Belargus – 13/2

Hubrisko – 8/1

Stormin Crossgales – 10/1



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Summary:

This looks like Abingworth’s race to lose if he jumps cleanly. He’s the best treated on recent evidence and is well positioned tactically. Hurricane Bay could take advantage if the favourite underperforms, especially if allowed to control a slow pace. Trapista remains a lurking threat but may not be suited by how this unfolds. Belargus is tricky but not without ability—market signals should guide confidence.

Market watch advised: Belargus (returning from 225 days), Hubrisko (out of form, but ex-Mullins), and Trapista (lightly raced mare with variable efforts).