1. Race Conditions & Pace/Draw Angles

A Class 3 fillies’ handicap over just shy of 1m1f on ground described as good (good to soft in places).

Pace forecast is weak, with few habitual front-runners. Prominent runners are often favoured at Nottingham, so a steadily run race could play into the hands of those who travel well and sit handy.

No draw bias reported at this trip with just 6 runners, but stall 1 (Supermodel) risks being shuffled back if slowly away.



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2. Contenders, Dangers, Outsiders & Key Insights

Strongest Contender

Jowddah (AdjR 105) – Roger Varian’s filly is the clear form choice, unbeaten in two starts this season (Newcastle and Yarmouth) and looked ahead of her mark last time. Proven at a mile, she travels powerfully and should get a tactically favourable trip even in a small field. Varian remains in excellent form. 8.5/10


Main Dangers

Treasure (98) – Top weight and rated 97, she returns from a 204-day absence. Her Newmarket second in October puts her firmly in the mix at this level, and Ralph Beckett’s runners are typically well-prepped off breaks. Fitness is the only question. 7/10

Yokkell (99) – Made a successful stable debut for Kevin Philippart de Foy here last time over this C&D, benefitting from a positive ride. Versatile and goes well here, but her mark has risen and she may not get such a soft lead today. 6.5/10

Alessia Fernanda (97) – Lightly raced mare who also scored on stable debut (for Declan Carroll) at Musselburgh with a front-running ride. That effort was on quick ground; repeat possible, but she had the run of that race and may not get the same freedom here. 6/10


Interesting Outsiders

Gaiety Musical (101) – Has been thriving on the AW and nearly landed another at Southwell last time. Versatile trip-wise and likely to track the pace. Timeform flags her as a serious in-running player (often trades short). This is a step up but not impossible. 6.5/10

Supermodel (94) – Highly regarded at one stage; won easily at Haydock before flopping in Listed company. Off 218 days and now makes her handicap debut. Could progress but others are race-fit and more solid. 5.5/10 (keep an eye on the market – W. Haggas has a solid strike rate with handicap debutants).



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3. Runners Rated Out of 10 (Based on Form, Suitability, Timeform Data & Profile)

Horse Rating (/10)

Jowddah 8.5
Treasure 7
Yokkell 6.5
Gaiety Musical 6.5
Alessia Fernanda 6
Supermodel 5.5



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4. Each-Way Angle

No each-way angles in this six-runner field.



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5. Private Tissue Estimate

Horse Tissue Odds

Jowddah 7/4
Treasure 4/1
Yokkell 5/1
Gaiety Musical 6/1
Alessia Fernanda 13/2
Supermodel 8/1



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6. Summary

Jowddah stands out on both form and profile, having won with authority in two progressive runs this season. The small field and weak pace scenario should suit her prominent style. Treasure is feared on class, though her layoff is a factor, while Yokkell and Gaiety Musical bring strong recent runs to the table and are viable alternatives if the favourite underperforms. Keep an eye on Supermodel in the market given her unexposed profile and trainer record with handicap debutants.

Market watch advised for Treasure (204 days off) and Supermodel (218 days off).