Pace Forecast: Very Strong
Draw Bias: Not significant at this trip
Pace Angle: Nottingham often favours prominent racers over this trip, but with the very strong pace anticipated, those who usually sit handy – like DIDDY MAN and HAVANA PRINCE – may find themselves vulnerable to closers such as INTERCESSOR or DRUMSTICK, who could be better suited by the collapse of the speed.


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Key Contenders & Comments:

DIDDY MAN – (88 Timeform adj) Returned to form in style last time at Wolverhampton, winning decisively. Handles a range of surfaces and has form off higher marks. Prominent runner, so the strong pace could be a negative unless settling better.

RISING FORCE – (83 Timeform adj) Strong-finishing type, won a well-run Yarmouth handicap last time and shaped well in deep field at Doncaster previously. Needs cover and luck in running but strong pace will suit. Often slow away.

INTERCESSOR – (86 Timeform adj) Formerly consistent in this grade and has a win over C&D in the book. Now with a small yard and returns after 244 days off. Tends to be slowly away and often needs things to fall right. Risky but interesting if there’s support.

SUSTAINED – (86 Timeform adj) Solid return at Wolverhampton and probably better suited to shorter trips than the extended 7f tested there. Lightly raced and in-form yard. May get involved late under a quiet ride.

HAVANA PRINCE – (86 Timeform adj) Consistent type with a good win at Redcar and fair run when third at Ripon last week. Often leads and may be one to struggle if the front end collapses under pressure. Still, recent form reads well.

PHONE TAG – (84 Timeform adj) Took advantage of pace bias at Pontefract and has won two of last five. Usually needs things to fall right and doesn’t always back up performances. Rider claims 3lb, so not without hope.

CHARRENCEY – (86 Timeform adj) Not straightforward but has excuses for latest effort (hampered) and has shown he can be competitive in similar company. May need luck if held up again. 99-day layoff, so market check essential.

DRUMSTICK – (85 Timeform adj) Bit of a project horse but has placed form in solid Kempton handicaps. Didn’t act on firm at Newbury last time and this looks more suitable. Needs cover but has each-way claims.

DREAM PIRATE – (85 Timeform adj) Course winner in testing ground. Often needs strong pace and return run was fair. Has run well at Nottingham before. Should get the right setup if able to tuck in and travel.


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Outsiders of Note:

KRACKING (83 adj): Has a tendency to over-race and may burn out with others for company up front.

CLIFFCAKE (?): Well handicapped on earlier AW form but tailed off recently and not easy to fancy.

POWER OF ZEUS (?): Multiple poor efforts since maiden win. Market may guide after 86 days off and a switch of stables.

SIAM FOX (87 adj): Well-handicapped if back to best and ran well behind winner he reopposes. 7yo now, but not dismissed lightly if bouncing second up.



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Trainer Trends & Hold-Up Watch:

John Gallagher (DRUMSTICK) has a notable +£128 level stakes profit with sole runners at a meeting.

Intercessor, Rising Force, Dream Pirate, and Charencey are all regular hold-up types that may need breaks in running.

Tony Coyle (HAVANA PRINCE) is in cold form. Kevin Frost has two in the field (SIAM FOX and PHONE TAG), which is worth noting given possible pace setups.

No previous winning trainer repeaters listed in the last three editions.



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Ratings out of 10:

DIDDY MAN – 8

RISING FORCE – 8

INTERCESSOR – 6

SUSTAINED – 7

HAVANA PRINCE – 7

PHONE TAG – 7

CHARRENCEY – 6

DRUMSTICK – 6

DREAM PIRATE – 7

KRACKING – 5

CLIFFCAKE – 3

POWER OF ZEUS – 2

SIAM FOX – 6



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Each-Way Angles (13 runners):

With a big field and strong pace, hold-up types with late speed like RISING FORCE and DRUMSTICK appeal as each-way options, particularly if 4 places are paid. SUSTAINED could also grab a place if dropped in.


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Private Tissue Estimate (No BOG used):

DIDDY MAN – 9/2

RISING FORCE – 11/2

SUSTAINED – 6/1

HAVANA PRINCE – 13/2

PHONE TAG – 15/2

DREAM PIRATE – 8/1

SIAM FOX – 10/1

DRUMSTICK – 12/1

INTERCESSOR – 14/1

CHARENCEY – 16/1

KRACKING – 20/1

CLIFFCAKE – 25/1

POWER OF ZEUS – 33/1



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Summary:

A strong pace looks likely to define this race. DIDDY MAN is respected after a smooth win, though the setup may not suit front-runners. RISING FORCE is a strong-finishing improver with the profile for this kind of race, while SUSTAINED is interesting on form and fitness grounds. DRUMSTICK and DREAM PIRATE appeal as each-way shouts in a race where closers may come to the fore late. Market moves for long-absent runners like INTERCESSOR and CHARRENCEY should be monitored closely.