1. Conditions and Pace Profile

A 2m handicap hurdle on good ground.
Pace forecast: Weak – Those racing prominently are typically favoured around Listowel, and the forecast sedate early fractions will likely benefit forward-goers.
Pace beneficiaries: Raydamann and Stuntman Steve should be better placed than confirmed hold-up types like Mercury Mission.


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2. Contenders, Dangers & Notables

Leading Contenders:

Raydamann (TFR 145) – Progressive 4yo for Gordon Elliott who ran a blinder in a deep Punchestown Festival handicap (3rd of 22). Winner prior to that and shaped well despite a troubled passage. Gets the 4yo allowance and is favoured by both trainer form and the tactical setup.

Shraheen (143) – Back-to-back wins late last year, including a strong effort at Leopardstown. Effective at this trip and goes well fresh, but off 158 days and may be better for a run.

Stuntman Steve (142) – On the upgrade and placed in competitive Killarney and Fairyhouse events recently. Should race prominently again, which is a positive with the pace likely to be steady.


Main Dangers:

Lord Erskine (139) – Veteran 12yo bounced back with a surprise win in a Listed handicap at Fairyhouse. That was on soft and he may find this less testing. Blinkers remain on. Trainer Harry Rogers profitable with sole hurdle runners on a card.

Zuzukel (123P) – Handicap debutant and flagged as “horse in focus” by Timeform. Quiet profile so far but shaped better than bare result in latest starts on the Flat. Likely improver if market vibes are strong.

First Dare (141) – Fair 7yo who returned to form last time in a fair Killarney handicap. Unproven at the trip but pace scenario helps.


Interesting Outsiders:

Oh So Charming (142) – Fair Flat horse, placed on hurdle return at Bellewstown after a break. Will need to jump more fluently but has place claims if stepping forward. Wears hood and tongue tie.


Hold-up Risks:

Mercury Mission, Zuzukel, Oh So Charming – all could find luck-in-running crucial in a race with no guaranteed gallop.


Trainer Watch:

Harry Rogers (Lord Erskine) has a good record with single hurdle runners (Smart Stat: +£58 to £1 level stake).

Gordon Elliott (Raydamann) is in excellent recent form.



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3. Runner Ratings (Out of 10)

Horse Rating

Raydamann 8
Shraheen 8
Stuntman Steve 7.5
Lord Erskine 7
Zuzukel 7 (watch the market)
Oh So Charming 6.5
First Dare 6.5
Mercury Mission 6
Frankendael 4
Mountain Port 3.5


Note: Watch for market support/drift on Shraheen (158 days off) and Zuzukel (handicap debut).


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4. Each-Way Angles

With 10 runners, each-way terms are in play.
Zuzukel and Oh So Charming appeal most from an each-way perspective if supported late. Both are unexposed and could outrun their prices in a tactically run race.


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5. Private Tissue Estimate

Raydamann – 4/1

Shraheen – 9/2

Stuntman Steve – 6/1

Lord Erskine – 7/1

Zuzukel – 8/1

Oh So Charming – 10/1

First Dare – 12/1

Mercury Mission – 14/1

Frankendael – 25/1

Mountain Port – 33/1



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Summary

Raydamann stands out on recent form, tactical suitability, and receives a weight-for-age allowance in a field that may not be strongly run. Shraheen is a strong alternative if ready off a break. Stuntman Steve continues to run well and has the pace to be involved. Zuzukel is the dark horse – lightly raced and now handicapping. A steadily-run affair should suit those up front, and watching the market for returning types like Shraheen and handicap debutants like Zuzukel will be key.