Pace/Draw Angles:
A strongly-run race is projected, which will likely benefit those with stamina and the ability to settle off the pace. High draws are historically advantageous at this trip on good ground. PEPPER NOIR should be well suited by this setup, whereas PINK OXALIS, usually ridden forward, may be vulnerable if chasing a hot pace.


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Strongest Contenders:

FORTUNA VERA – [Rating: 100]
Improved significantly for the step up to 1¼m when defeating PEPPER NOIR at Leopardstown (good), finishing strongly from off the pace. Up 6 lb but still lightly raced and represents a stable in hot form (Joseph O’Brien). Prominent run style suits the race setup.

PEPPER NOIR – [Rating: 101]
In good order and handled strong pace scenarios well. Split rivals at Leopardstown last time when second to Fortuna Vera. Acts on polytrack and turf. Holds claims again but is closely matched with the O’Brien filly.

PINK OXALIS – [Rating: 100]
Progressive profile and comes here seeking a hat-trick after wide-margin success over 1m at Gowran. However, both recent wins came in smaller fields, and a strong pace may not play to her strengths if ridden forward again. Needs a more patient ride.

GOTOMYLOVELY – [Rating: 93]
Back in form when second at Gowran and has early-season fitness on her side. Pedigree suggests 1¼m suits. One of the more likely 3yo improvers but has a tougher mark to defy against more seasoned fillies.

KALIXA – [Rating: 89]
First handicap after being thrown into a Group 3 last time; a complete forgive run. Won a maiden over this trip beforehand and is bred to progress over further. Trainer D.K. Weld remains in strong form. Could be well treated off 84.



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Main Dangers:

OB LA DI – [Rating: 97]
Kept on well at Sligo last time despite an inefficient run and being held up in a steadily run race. Handles quicker ground and shaped as though more to come. Needs a more prominent ride given the pace angle here.

ITS ALL PEACHY – [Rating: 90]
Lightly raced and progressing with racing. Recent second in a Gowran maiden showed determination. Steps up in class and trip, and may need more tactical speed, but trainer has a solid single-runner strike rate at flat meetings.

RAYBIYA – [Rating: 94]
Ex-Graffard runner, not seen since Deauville in November. Previously second in a French conditions race and bred for middle distances. Big layoff of 188 days – market support would be significant.



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Interesting Outsiders:

LADY LUNETTE – [Rating: 97]
Course-and-distance winner who caught the eye last time when denied a run. Still retains ability and holds each-way appeal, though better on softer ground historically.

FIVER FRIDAY – [Rating: 99]
Well handicapped on old form but hasn’t looked the same since a productive 2024. Often slowly away, and likely best watched unless backed.



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Hold-Up Risk / Luck in Running Types:

FIVER FRIDAY, OB LA DI, and PRESENCE typically race off the pace and may require gaps to appear late.

FORTUNA VERA and KALIXA are capable of tracking the pace and should be better placed given the expected strong tempo.



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Runner Ratings out of 10:

FORTUNA VERA – 8

PEPPER NOIR – 8

PINK OXALIS – 7

GOTOMYLOVELY – 7

KALIXA – 7

OB LA DI – 6

ITS ALL PEACHY – 6

RAYBIYA – 6 (market check essential off long break)

LADY LUNETTE – 6

FIVER FRIDAY – 5 (needs market support)

KAYHANA – 4 (first start for Cromwell, better ground a plus)

FAST TARA – 4 (well held recently, regressive profile)

PRESENCE – 3 (needs to bounce back sharply)



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Each-Way Angle:

With 13 runners, each-way terms apply. LADY LUNETTE and KALIXA are fair options at bigger prices, particularly the latter making her handicap debut for an in-form yard. OB LA DI is another to watch closely if market positive.


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Private Tissue Estimate:

FORTUNA VERA – 4/1

PEPPER NOIR – 11/2

PINK OXALIS – 6/1

GOTOMYLOVELY – 13/2

KALIXA – 7/1

OB LA DI – 9/1

ITS ALL PEACHY – 10/1

LADY LUNETTE – 12/1

RAYBIYA – 14/1

FIVER FRIDAY – 16/1

KAYHANA – 20/1

FAST TARA – 25/1

PRESENCE – 33/1



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Summary:

This fillies’ handicap looks a competitive renewal with a mix of improving 3yos and solid older handicappers. FORTUNA VERA is the pick on recent form, having beaten a few of these last time under similar conditions. PEPPER NOIR and PINK OXALIS remain viable threats, the former likely better suited by the likely strong gallop. KALIXA appeals as a handicap debutante from a hot stable, while OB LA DI and LADY LUNETTE may offer value at each-way prices. Market watch advised for RAYBIYA and any support for ITS ALL PEACHY, especially with that trainer stat in mind.