Pace Forecast: Very Strong – Expected end-to-end gallop could blunt the usual advantage for front-runners like Sixteen One. Hold-up types such as One Of Our Own may be better suited in this scenario.


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Key Contenders

ONE OF OUR OWN (TFR 75) – Below last winning mark and shaped with considerable promise last time at Redcar, denied a clear run. Often better when held up off a strong pace, which suits this setup. Races off OR 62.

LADY MARIKO (TFR 78) – Progressive 3yo, split from the Crisfords and now with Dylan Cunha. Clear second at Nottingham latest, pulling away from the rest. Handles quick ground and shaping as though 7f could be ideal. One to note for strength in finish.

SIXTEEN ONE (TFR 75) – Consistent but may be slightly compromised by today’s pace setup. Beaten a head at Leicester last time. Prominent style could leave her vulnerable in an end-to-end contest despite holding her form well.

CLASINA (TFR 71) – Returned to form with a staying-on third at Ayr. Generally consistent and handles a sound surface. Place claims again if getting a clean trip from a wide draw.

KISS ME MY LOVE (TFR 72) – Won her maiden last year. Mixed form since, but respectable third at Hamilton latest and has tactical pace to sit close up. Connections positive on step back to 7f. Charlie Johnston is 2/6 in this race last 2 years.


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Main Dangers & Outsiders of Interest

CATTON LADY (TFR 72) – Can run into a place at a price but profile suggests she needs a strong pace collapse and hasn’t progressed from her 3yo form. Better drawn today than last run.

KRISTAL KLEAR (TFR 69) – Has won off breaks before but didn’t fire last time and returns from another layoff (94 days). Best form on AW. Monitor market for any significant support.

PENELOPE VALENTINE (TFR 73) – May outrun odds if bouncing back. Won well at Kempton in Feb but hasn’t reproduced that on turf yet. Often races with credit and Tudhope booked.

QUEENS ROAD REVUE (TFR 68) – Usually races prominently which may not suit here. Poor strike rate and can be found wanting in stronger finishes.



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Hold-up Risks / Market Watch

Emily Post, Clasina and One Of Our Own may all be helped by today’s predicted strong pace but could need luck in running if covered up.

Kristal Klear and Straight Back Up are returning from layoffs of 90+ days – market moves significant, particularly the latter having had just 3 starts.

Watch for further support on Lady Mariko following her close second – could be peaking.

Sunshine Soul is a non-runner.



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Runner Ratings (Marks out of 10)

ONE OF OUR OWN – 8

LADY MARIKO – 8

SIXTEEN ONE – 7

CLASINA – 7

KISS ME MY LOVE – 7

PENELOPE VALENTINE – 6

CATTON LADY – 6

KRISTAL KLEAR – 5

QUEENS ROAD REVUE – 5

EMILY POST – 5

GROVELY BELLE – 4

STRAIGHT BACK UP – 3

SUNSHINE SOUL – NR



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Private Tissue Estimate

ONE OF OUR OWN – 9/2

LADY MARIKO – 9/2

SIXTEEN ONE – 6/1

CLASINA – 8/1

KISS ME MY LOVE – 9/1

PENELOPE VALENTINE – 12/1

CATTON LADY – 14/1

EMILY POST – 14/1

QUEENS ROAD REVUE – 16/1

KRISTAL KLEAR – 20/1

GROVELY BELLE – 33/1

STRAIGHT BACK UP – 50/1


Each-way angle: 13 runners; LADY MARIKO, CLASINA and KISS ME MY LOVE qualify under EW terms with some appeal at double-figure prices.


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Summary

A highly competitive 0–68 fillies’ handicap that could set up for a closer due to a predicted strong early gallop. One Of Our Own appeals most given her recent luckless run, suitability to the pace scenario, and falling mark. Lady Mariko is respected off a strong Nottingham second and may well improve again for her new yard. Sixteen One continues in form but could be vulnerable late on. Watch market cues for Kristal Klear and Straight Back Up, who return from absences. A lively betting heat with several viable EW options in a big field.