Pace Forecast: Weak
Draw Bias: No prevailing evidence
Pace Note: Hold-up horses are generally disadvantaged at this trip on this track. The steady forecast pace is likely to favour prominently ridden types such as Island Bandit, rather than deep closers like Walson’s Law or Racing Demon.


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Strongest Contenders

Newfangled (IRE) – TFR: 90
Progressive and consistent handicapper. He’s 3–6 since March and arrives in peak form following a narrow win over Daisy Roots here nine days ago. Travels strongly, often races close to the speed, and is well suited by conditions. No layoff concerns and has adapted well to various going types and surfaces.

Savvy Exchange (IRE) – TFR: 89
Lightly raced since last summer, but has a win and solid placed form in good company. Faded after a break on return but likely to be sharper now. Races prominently, visor retained. Market support would be notable given his previous profile.

Island Bandit (IRE) – TFR: 89
Consistent type with solid all-weather and turf form. Likely needed his reappearance run at Bath. Strong pace-suited profile today given his usual racing style near the lead. Headgear retained. Trainer Heather Main has a good record when sending just one runner to a meeting.


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Main Dangers

Atlantis Blue – TFR: 88
Triple scorer last term, including C&D win. Often races freely and has disappointed after going short in-running, suggesting a risky in-running profile. Needed comeback and may strip fitter, but isn’t the most reliable in a finish.

Beatrice Shilling (IRE) – TFR: 87
Respectable recent efforts on turf and Tapeta. Often finds little when asked, but place potential. Left Peter Chapple-Hyam after last season and remains with potential to settle into her new yard. Daniel Muscutt takes over again.


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Interesting Outsiders

Walson’s Law – TFR: 86
Off for 230 days and has changed yards. Was second off similar mark last autumn but not ideally placed when sixth last time out. Prominent placement will be key today, but absence and trainer switch make him difficult to weigh up. Monitor market closely.

Racing Demon – TFR: 86§
Course winner and ran well in strong 1m+ handicaps in 2024. Often slowly away and usually held up – that’s a notable negative given today’s likely tactical race shape. Now third run back and could run into a place if strong pace materialises, but needs luck in running.


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Trends & Trainer Notes

Past Winners’ Age Profile: Previous 3 winners aged 4–6.

Notable Trainers:

George Baker (Atlantis Blue) has a £60 level-stakes profit with sole runners at flat meetings.

Heather Main (Island Bandit) shows £24.78 LSP with single runners.




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Marks out of 10 (based on form, ratings, pace profile, and setup):

Horse Rating (10) Comments

Newfangled 9 In form, races prominently, suited by setup and trip
Island Bandit 8 Tactically favoured, value profile, one to note with expected pace
Savvy Exchange 7 Could bounce back, prominent style suits, needs market check
Atlantis Blue 6 Has ability, in-running profile risky, vulnerable in a finish
Beatrice Shilling 6 Consistent, but often fades late; place claims
Walson’s Law 5 Layoff and yard change cloud his prospects, watch market
Racing Demon 5 Strong pace and cover ideally needed, often runs better than he finishes



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Private Tissue Estimate (based on Timeform adjusted ratings, pace, profile strength, and current condition):

Newfangled – 2/1

Island Bandit – 9/2

Savvy Exchange – 11/2

Atlantis Blue – 13/2

Beatrice Shilling – 7/1

Walson’s Law – 9/1

Racing Demon – 10/1



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Summary

This is a race lacking in obvious pace, with conditions favouring those up with it. Newfangled holds the strongest recent form, travels smoothly, and has delivered repeatedly in recent weeks – he’s the one to beat. Island Bandit looks well positioned tactically and is a danger if coming on for his reappearance. Savvy Exchange is interesting from a markable angle if support comes for him. Those held up like Racing Demon or needing a change of scenery like Walson’s Law may struggle to land a blow unless pace unexpectedly lifts. Market moves for layoff horses (especially Walson’s Law) are worth tracking closely.