Pace/Drawing Angles:
With just six runners and a Very Weak pace forecast, this is unlikely to be run at a searching gallop. Illogical Logic (FR) is expected to race prominently and won’t be hindered by a steady tempo. Hold-up horses such as Radharc Na Slaine could be at a disadvantage unless there’s unexpected early pressure.


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Strongest Contenders, Dangers, and Notables:

ILLOGICAL LOGIC (FR) – (TFR 108+)
Clearly the one to beat. He was in complete command here last week before falling two out. Same mark today, and he’s well treated on that run. Has failed to convert strong positions before when trading odds-on in-running, but he’s the standout on form and figures. Still a maiden, but upwardly mobile over fences now.

MOONLIGHT ARTIST – (TFR 96)
A patchy profile but did get his head in front at Warwick two starts ago. Didn’t jump with fluency last time and was well held despite market support. Joe Tizzard’s yard boasts a 21% strike rate at Newton Abbot, and the horse has had wind surgery. Could bounce back, though comes with risk attached.

GRAND SABRE – (TFR 95)
Surprised at 22/1 when winning a conditional jockeys’ chase at Warwick last time. Form prior to that was uncompetitive in bumpers and hurdles. That win may flatter him slightly, but a repeat puts him in the frame. Another from a trainer (Nick Gifford) with a solid 22% strike rate with staying chasers.

RADHARC NA SLAINE (IRE) – (TFR 94?)
Scrambled into second last week but didn’t convince in the run—merely stayed on past beaten horses. Didn’t jump or travel with fluency and has yet to win under Rules. Might need a much stronger pace than he’ll get here to be competitive.

TELLAIRSUE (GER) – (TFR ?)
Breathing op noted. Fell on chase debut when well-backed. Was already struggling that day and will need to jump better and show more fluency. Timeform comments flag this one as a hold-up type that might need luck in running. Second start over fences so market should guide.

BACKINACTION (IRE) – (TFR ?)
276-day layoff and little promise in five starts over hurdles and fences. Clearly not straightforward and likely to need this. Evan Williams does occasionally pop up with spring/summer winners at big prices but recent chase runs have been poor.



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Ratings Out of 10 (Based on Profile, TFR, Trends, and Trainer/Jockey Angles):

Illogical Logic (FR) – 9/10

Moonlight Artist – 6.5/10

Grand Sabre – 6.5/10

Radharc Na Slaine (IRE) – 5.5/10

Tellairsue (GER) – 4.5/10

Backinaction (IRE) – 3/10


> Market Watch: Keep a close eye on Tellairsue (GER) making just his second start over fences and fitted with headgear again. Backinaction returns from a long break and will need to show positive signs in the market if fancied.




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Private Tissue Estimate:

Illogical Logic (FR) – 5/6

Grand Sabre – 5/1

Moonlight Artist – 6/1

Radharc Na Slaine (IRE) – 8/1

Tellairsue (GER) – 12/1

Backinaction (IRE) – 33/1



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Summary:

Illogical Logic sets the standard comfortably and would likely have bolted up last week but for falling. If avoiding mistakes, he looks a class above this lot off 86. Grand Sabre and Moonlight Artist are the pick of the remainder, albeit with more patchy profiles. Market support for Tellairsue on just his second chase start would be noteworthy, while Backinaction is hard to recommend on current evidence. Trainer records for Gifford and Tizzard offer minor encouragement behind the favourite.

> Recommendation: Watch the market for any late support on Tellairsue or a big drift on Illogical Logic, but unless something unusual unfolds, it’s his race to lose.