Pace/Dynamics: The race is forecast to be run at a weak tempo, with a known pace disadvantage for hold-up types at this trip on this track. Front/prominent runners are likely to have a positional edge. Stream of Stars and American Land should be well-positioned early. Clearance may be inconvenienced given his usual hold-up tactics.


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Leading Contenders

Stream of Stars (TFR 133)
Returned to winning ways at Bangor, having the run of the race and showing he’s still competitive at 10. Prominent racing style suits today’s predicted tempo. Acts on good ground and stays this trip well. Raised 4lb for latest win but remains of interest.

American Land (TFR 131)
Has won 4 of last 5 hurdles starts, including over course and distance three weeks ago. Has tactical pace and finds for pressure. Carries just a 3lb rise and continues to progress. Stable in good form (Joe Tizzard 21% strike rate at track). Likely to be well backed.

Get The Value (TFR 133)
Back-to-back wins at Stratford and here suggest genuine improvement. Won easily latest, beating some exposed sorts decisively. Up 7lb but clearly thriving and races prominently. Potential for more despite stiffer opposition.


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Main Dangers

Luttrell Lad (TFR 132)
Consistent in this grade and represents a yard (Tom Lacey) with strong stats when sending one runner. Useful form behind Givemefive at Haydock. Slight concern over ability to dominate given pace setup, but solid profile.

Clearance (TFR 135)
Dual winner of this race (2022, 2024) and always merits respect at this venue (6 wins). However, likely pace setup won’t suit his usual patient tactics. That said, ran best race for a while last time. Michael Blake has won this race twice in last 5 years.


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Interesting Outsiders

War Lord (TFR 130)
Back from a 195-day absence and has had multiple breathing ops. Former smart chaser, but recent hurdle form is modest. Significant layoff tempers enthusiasm. May need this, though a market move would be notable.

Balboa (TFR 134)
High Timeform figure, but recent efforts well below best. Looked laboured at Hexham latest and has a patchy profile. At just 5, there’s time for more, but arrives with questions.


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Ratings out of 10

Stream of Stars – 8

American Land – 8

Get The Value – 8

Luttrell Lad – 7

Clearance – 6

War Lord – 5 (watch market, long layoff)

Balboa – 4



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Private Tissue Estimate

(Reflects Timeform adjusted ratings, recent form, pace angle, and profile strength)

American Land – 3/1

Get The Value – 7/2

Stream of Stars – 4/1

Luttrell Lad – 5/1

Clearance – 6/1

War Lord – 16/1

Balboa – 25/1



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Summary

A competitive small-field handicap, where pace position is likely to be decisive. Get The Value and American Land both come here in excellent form and race prominently. Stream of Stars is also a strong contender if able to control things early. Luttrell Lad has solid place claims, while Clearance, a course specialist, may find things unfolding against him. War Lord and Balboa need watching for late support, especially the former on return from a break.

Market watch is essential for War Lord and Balboa, and note any support for Luttrell Lad, who runs for a profitable one-horse yard today.