1. Conditions and Pace/Draw Angles

This is a valuable staying handicap over 1m6f. The ground is good, and a strong pace is expected according to the forecast, which could set things up for a closer. Notably, front-runners and prominent racers often fare well at this trip here, but when the early fractions are strong, it tends to suit late runners, particularly on decent ground. There is no significant draw bias reported over this distance.

Pace hint: Falcon Eight, Smooth Tom and En Or are expected to benefit from the likely strong pace, while it could compromise Star Harbour, who is best when dictating or racing near the lead.


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2. Leading Contenders, Dangers & Outsiders

Strongest Contenders:

Mr Percy [TFR 115] – Unexposed on the Flat with a recent hurdle win. Impressive when winning a maiden by 7 lengths at Gowran last autumn and returned with a cosy success over hurdles at Fairyhouse. Joseph O’Brien-trained and fit from jumping.

Sixandahalf [TFR 112+] – Continues on an upward curve. Third in the Irish Cesarewitch and solid on multiple surfaces. A credible dual-purpose mare who shaped as if in need of the run when odds-on over hurdles last time.

Zanndabad [TFR 113] – C&D form and a sixth in last year’s Irish Cesarewitch makes him notable. Trainer in cold form but this is a proven stayer with a fair mark.


Main Dangers:

Helvic Dream [TFR 116] – One-time Group performer who has taken well to hurdling and wasn’t disgraced in a turf return behind Falcon Eight. Looks feasibly handicapped.

Smooth Tom [TFR 115] – Third in the Irish Lincoln on seasonal return before scoring over hurdles. Goes well fresh and has won over 12f+ here.

Falcon Eight [TFR 118§] – Veteran but showed there’s still life left when making all at Gowran. Has stamina in abundance and could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead, though often tricky.


Interesting Outsiders:

It’s Tim [TFR 112] – Racked up four quick wins before underperforming when turned out rapidly. Now back off a break and steps into deeper waters; could go well if back to peak.

Tribal Star [TFR 115] – Big effort in the AW Marathon Final at Newcastle; lightly raced and progressing steadily for Adrian McGuinness.


Hold-up risk / needs luck:

En Or and Jabbar tend to be held up and will need gaps to appear late, particularly in a field of this size.


Trainer Trends:

Dermot Weld (trainer of Harbour Wind and Falcon Eight) is in excellent form and has a strong record with stayers at this venue.

Joseph O’Brien and Noel Meade also have solid records in staying handicaps, with both Mr Percy and Zoffman of interest.



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3. Runner Ratings (Out of 10)

Horse Rating

Mr Percy 8.5
Sixandahalf 8
Zanndabad 7.5
Smooth Tom 7.5
Helvic Dream 7.5
Falcon Eight 7
It’s Tim 7
Tribal Star 6.5
Harbour Wind 6.5
Star Harbour 6.5
Zoffman 6
En Or 6
Jabbar 5.5
Taipan 5.5
Riviera Queen 4.5
Chally Chute 4.5
Vischio 4


Note: Runners returning from 90+ days (e.g., Harbour Wind, Chally Chute, Zanndabad) – monitor market moves closely.
In-form runners turning out quickly, such as Mr Percy and Smooth Tom, often stay sharp – positive sign.


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4. Each-Way Angles

With 17 runners declared, this qualifies as an each-way race. Horses like Zanndabad, Smooth Tom, and Tribal Star appeal on profile and ratings for place potential at likely bigger odds.


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5. Private Tissue Estimate

This is based on adjusted Timeform ratings, profiles, fitness, and current stable form:

Mr Percy – 5/1

Sixandahalf – 11/2

Smooth Tom – 13/2

Zanndabad – 8/1

Helvic Dream – 9/1

Falcon Eight – 10/1

It’s Tim – 11/1

Tribal Star – 14/1

Harbour Wind – 14/1

Zoffman – 16/1

En Or – 18/1

Star Harbour – 18/1

Jabbar, Taipan, Chally Chute – 25/1+

Riviera Queen, Vischio – 40/1+


Market watch advised for Tribal Star and It’s Tim, both of whom are relatively unexposed in Irish staying handicaps.


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6. Summary

A wide-open Premier Handicap, where Mr Percy and Sixandahalf set the standard based on recent hurdles form and previous staying handicap efforts. Zanndabad and Smooth Tom look solid each-way alternatives, with Helvic Dream and Falcon Eight adding Group-race depth. The race could be shaped by pace dynamics, so late closers like En Or and Jabbar may need luck. With several runners returning from breaks, monitor market signals closely. Competitive renewal with a strong Irish flavour and multiple dual-purpose types.