Pace Forecast: Very Weak
A slowly-run affair is expected, favouring those up with the pace or able to quicken smartly. Hold-up types may be at a disadvantage unless they possess a sharp turn of foot.


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Contender Analysis

Strongest Contenders:

THERAPIST (TFR 120, OR 115) – Improving 5yo mare for Nicky Henderson, who has a 26% strike rate at Warwick. Has won 3 of her last 4 including two small-field mares’ events at Stratford (latest cosily by ½ length). She is usually held up and may need luck in a likely tactical affair, but she’s consistent and proven over this trip on good ground.

FROMHERETOETERNITY (TFR 123, OR 115) – Lightly raced since joining Jennie Candlish but has good winning form in mares’ novice events and shaped well at Bangor recently when poorly placed. Tends to travel strongly and may be slightly inconvenienced by a crawl, though she brings solid handicap form.

BLAZEON FIVE (TFR 124p, OR 103) – Alan King’s 7yo has a progressive profile and looks feasibly treated on handicap debut. Second in a Chepstow novice in January, she’s bred to improve over hurdles and was better than the bare result on her Flat reappearance. Likely to be sharper here and profiles as an unexposed type with scope.


Main Danger:

SOLEIL D’ARIZONA (TFR 122, OR 103) – Dan Skelton has won this race twice in the past. This mare won a Haydock maiden but bled earlier in the season. Raced freely and was beaten 9 lengths by Indemnity last time at Warwick. She tends to race prominently but has disappointed when trading short in-play. Second start in a handicap and has a ‘bounce’ risk after an absence earlier in the year.


Interesting Outsider:

PRINCESS T (TFR 122, OR 106) – 10yo with a solid profile at her level. Won at Wincanton in October and was last seen behind Therapist. Versatile with ground and trip, but needs the race to fall her way. Might be outpaced in a slow tactical affair if they sprint off the home turn.



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Trainer Trends & Tactical Risks

Nicky Henderson (THERAPIST) and Dan Skelton (SOLEIL D’ARIZONA) are the only previous winning trainers in this race in the past 6 years.

THERAPIST and FROMHERETOETERNITY are both hold-up types, and with a very weak pace forecast, that does leave them at risk of needing luck in running.

SOLEIL D’ARIZONA and BLAZEON FIVE should be better positioned if they adopt positive tactics.

No runners return from a break of over 90 days, but BLAZEON FIVE is on her second start since a Flat return and may come on for that.



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Runner Ratings out of 10

THERAPIST – 8

FROMHERETOETERNITY – 7

PRINCESS T – 6

BLAZEON FIVE – 8

SOLEIL D’ARIZONA – 7


Watch the market for support or drift on BLAZEON FIVE (2nd run back after a Flat spin), and SOLEIL D’ARIZONA (still lightly exposed in handicaps).


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Private Tissue Estimate (Win Market Only)

THERAPIST – 9/4

BLAZEON FIVE – 3/1

FROMHERETOETERNITY – 4/1

SOLEIL D’ARIZONA – 5/1

PRINCESS T – 12/1



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Summary

A tightly-knit mares’ handicap where tactics will play a key role. THERAPIST is the clear form pick but is a hold-up type in a race lacking pace. BLAZEON FIVE is unexposed and potentially well-treated, making her a key danger if sharp enough on her second run back. FROMHERETOETERNITY ran with promise at Bangor and also enters calculations. SOLEIL D’ARIZONA has ability but question marks regarding finishing effort and temperament persist. Small field and tactical nature suggest a cautious betting approach with emphasis on watching the market for signs of trainer intent.