If you’re a racing enthusiast who enjoys going beyond the form guide and into the numbers, you’ll find real value in learning how to compile your own tissue odds using lbs-based private ratings. Thomas Randall’s approach, outlined in his book How to Compile Odds, offers a structured and practical way to do just that — using everyday tools like Timeform, Racing Post Ratings, or At The Races figures.
Here’s how you can apply his method step by step.
🧠 What’s the Randall Method?
Randall’s system is built around the principle that every horse has a weight-adjusted ability figure — and by comparing these figures and adjusting for other race-day factors (like going, trip, trainer form, etc.), you can group horses and assign odds that reflect their true chance better than the betting market.
🔧 Step-by-Step Guide to Building Your Own Tissue
1️⃣ Start with Private Ratings
Use Timeform, RPR, or ATR figures as your base. These are already expressed in pounds (lbs), so they work well. Adjust these ratings for:
- Going (up to ±10 lbs)
- Trip suitability
- Course preference
- Trainer form
- Jockey strength
- Fitness/recency
- Draw bias (for flat races)
Apply these adjustments to create your final private rating for each runner.
2️⃣ Identify the Favourite & Group the Field
Once all adjusted figures are ready:
- Top-rated horse = favourite
- Runners within 5lbs = Dangers
- Runners 6–10lbs behind = Each-Way Chances
- More than 10lbs behind = No Hopers
3️⃣ Estimate the Favourite’s Price
Use a simple points system:
- 1 point per Danger
- ¼ point per Each-Way
Example: 2 Dangers + 2 E/W = 2.5 points → Favourite’s price = 5/2
4️⃣ Assign Prices to the Rest
Now apply Randall’s lbs-to-chance model:
- 0lbs off: Same chance as favourite
- 5lbs off: Half the chance
- 10lbs off: Quarter the chance
- 15lbs off: Eighth
- 20lbs off: Sixteenth
Convert these into percentages, then into odds. If your total % is over or under 100%, just scale the figures pro rata.
📙 What’s in Randall’s Book?
How to Compile Odds is a compact but deeply practical guide. It covers:
- Basics of tissue pricing
- Converting pounds into chance
- Realistic race-day adjustments
- Building odds for handicaps, bumpers, juvenile races, hurdles, and chases
- How to use nominal ratings for debutants
- Working with draw bias and market psychology
Randall writes clearly and doesn’t overcomplicate things — ideal for someone looking to get serious about building their own betting tissue.
💡 Why Use This Approach?
This method forces you to quantify your opinion, rather than rely on SPs or market hype. If you’re serious about identifying value and beating the market occasionally, building your own odds — even just for a few races a week — can give you a major edge.
✅ What You Need:
- Ratings (from Timeform, RPR or ATR)
- A spreadsheet (to handle the maths)
- Notes on trainer/jockey/draw trends
- A willingness to put in the work
🧮 Step-by-Step Example: Creating Tissue Odds for the 2025 Betfred Oaks (G1, 1m4f, 3yo fillies)
🏇 Step 1: Assign Private Handicap Figures (Base Lb Ratings)
Let’s start with an estimated lbs figure for each runner based on form quality and OR. These are subjective but grounded in logic, so we’ll assume Desert Flower is the base standard (OR 117, G1 winner).
| Horse | OR | Base Figure (lbs) |
|---|---|---|
| Desert Flower | 117 | 100 (benchmark) |
| Whirl | 110 | 96 |
| Elwateen | 108 | 95 |
| Minnie Hauk | 100 | 94 |
| Giselle | 102 | 93 |
| Wemightakedlongway | 105 | 92 |
| Revoir | 97 | 90 |
| Qilin Queen | 98 | 89 |
| Go Go Boots | 99 | 87 |
🧾 Step 2: Adjust for Going, Trip, Course, Jockey, Trainer, Fitness
Now apply Randall’s modifiers. Example:
- Going: Desert Flower is 5/5 on similar ground → +5
- Trip: Proven or staying types get +5 to +10
- Trainer: Appleby/Moore/O’Brien top tier → +5 to +10
- Fitness: Recent good run (G1, G3 wins) → +10
- Course: N/A (none have run at Epsom)
We’ll summarise adjusted figures:
| Horse | Base | Adj (G/T/C/J/F) | Final Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Flower | 100 | +5+10+10+5+10 | 140 |
| Whirl | 96 | +5+10+5+5+10 | 126 |
| Minnie Hauk | 94 | +5+10+5+10+10 | 134 |
| Elwateen | 95 | +5+5+5+5+5 | 120 |
| Giselle | 93 | +5+10+5+5+10 | 123 |
| Wemightakedlongway | 92 | +5+10+5+5+10 | 122 |
| Revoir | 90 | +5+10+0+0+10 | 115 |
| Qilin Queen | 89 | +5+0+0+0+10 | 104 |
| Go Go Boots | 87 | +5+0+0+0+5 | 97 |
🎯 Step 3: Identify the Favourite and Group the Field
Top adjusted rating = Desert Flower (140) → sets the standard.
Now group the others:
- Dangers (within 5lbs): Minnie Hauk (134)
- E/W Chances (6–10lbs): Whirl (126)
- No Hopers: the rest (Elwateen 120 and lower)
So:
- 1 Danger = 1pt
- 1 E/W = 0.25pt
- Favourite’s total points = 1.25
- Estimated price = 1.25 → 9/4 (rounded)
📊 Step 4: Convert Lbs Gap into Odds
Using the “fraction of chance” rule:
| Horse | Lbs Off Fav | Fraction of Chance | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Flower | 0 | 1 | 44.4% (base) |
| Minnie Hauk | 6 | ½ | 22.2% |
| Whirl | 14 | ⅛ | 5.5% |
| Giselle | 17 | 1/12 | 3.7% |
| Wemightakedlongway | 18 | 1/14 | 3.2% |
| Elwateen | 20 | 1/16 | 2.8% |
| Revoir | 25 | 1/20 | 2.2% |
| Qilin Queen | 36 | 1/33 | 1.3% |
| Go Go Boots | 43 | 1/50 | 0.9% |
Total % = 85.2% → scale each up by approx. 1.173 to get 100% tissue
💷 Final Tissue Odds (Rounded)
| Horse | Final % | Decimal | Fractional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Flower | 52% | 1.92 | 10/11 |
| Minnie Hauk | 26% | 3.85 | 3/1 |
| Whirl | 6.5% | 15.4 | 14/1 |
| Giselle | 4.3% | 23.3 | 22/1 |
| Wemightakedlongway | 3.8% | 26.3 | 25/1 |
| Elwateen | 3.3% | 30.3 | 28/1 |
| Revoir | 2.6% | 38.5 | 33/1 |
| Qilin Queen | 1.5% | 66.7 | 66/1 |
| Go Go Boots | 1.1% | 90.9 | 80/1 |
📝 Summary
Using the Thomas Randall method, we’ve created a private tissue for the 2025 Oaks based on adjusted lbs ratings. This gives us a clear idea of each filly’s theoretical chance before the market influence creeps in.
🟢 Desert Flower is the rightful favourite but a short price.
🔵 Minnie Hauk is the clear danger.
The Ratings used for this example were the official ratings
Using his method Both Desert Flower 6/4 and Minnie Hawk 5/1 currently are worth backing.
The book is called:
How to Compile Odds: A Professional Guide for Bookmakers and Punter
Author: Thomas Randall
It’s a concise and practical guide for anyone looking to understand how to convert private handicap ratings into realistic betting markets. The book walks through pricing methods, lbs-to-percentage conversion, and how to apply form, fitness, trainer, draw and going adjustments in a structured way — perfect for both aspiring odds compilers and value-focused punters. It is available on Amazon Kindle.
TimeWise Chronicles 
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