Pace Forecast: Very Strong
Draw Bias: No established bias over this trip; pace is likely to be the decisive angle.

Pace/Draw Angles:
The setup suggests a strongly run race, with several habitual front-runners involved (Flying Finn, Mutawaid, perhaps Ecureuil Secret). This could play against those who go hard early and instead suit those able to settle off the gallop and finish late. Notably, WESTERTON and HAVE SECRET are among those who tend to be ridden more patiently.


—

Contenders, Dangers & Outsiders

Strongest Contenders:

MUTAAWID [Rating: 121] – Comes here in peak form after making all and bolting up at Newmarket by six lengths. Penalised 10 lb, but that effort strongly suggested he’s a Group-class handicapper in the making. Handles quick ground, but may face more competition for the lead today.

HAVE SECRET [120] – Lightly raced this term and in excellent nick; his win at Ripon followed by a good second last week makes him an obvious threat. Stays the trip and runs on strongly, which could suit off a strong pace. One of the better closers.

AKECHETA [119] – Continues to shape well in big-field Curragh handicaps. He’s been looking for a return to this trip and the way he’s finished his races suggests the setup here could suit. Market watch is advised with the trainer currently cold.

BOTANICAL [118] – Good second in the John Smith’s Cup last season and respectable fifth in a Listed race last time. George Boughey is in fine form, and the return to handicaps could see improvement. Has tactical pace but may prefer a more controlled gallop.


Main Dangers:

DEFIANCE [111] – Lightly raced and was second in a Listed race over C&D last spring. Gelded since and returns from a break. Roger Varian has won this race three times in the past 10 years. Market will guide after 350 days off.

ASHARIBA [114p] – Progressive filly last term (4 wins) and likely to do better at 4. Returns from a 244-day break but could go forward in the market. Often slow away, so might need luck from mid-pack.

ECUREUIL SECRET [113] – Back from 228 days off. Former French-trained front-runner with placed Listed form. Unexposed for Richard Fahey and gelded over the winter. Likely to press the pace but may be vulnerable to stronger stayers.

WESTERTON [119] – Shaped well in a strongly-run York handicap last time, finishing off best from rear. Could be suited by this setup and has been operating off similar marks. Worth noting Alan King has a decent record at Epsom in recent seasons.


Interesting Outsiders:

RATHGAR [117] – Epsom form figures read well (close 2nd in April). He’s holding his form and has tactical pace, which could allow him to stay out of trouble. Smart Stats show Jack Channon is profitable to follow with single runners.

WARDa JAMILA [118] – Comes from the in-form Balding yard. Didn’t look comfortable at Chester but had shaped fine at Epsom prior. Another needing pace to collapse but draw and run style could leave her needing gaps.



—

Hold-Up Horses with Risk of Traffic:

HAVE SECRET

WESTERTON

WARDa JAMILA

ASHARIBA

SIMPLY SONDHEIM


These types may benefit from a collapse in the pace but will need a clear run through. Luck in running will play a role.


—

Runner Ratings out of 10 (based on profile, rating, trends, trainer/jockey, suitability to race shape):

MUTAAWID – 9

HAVE SECRET – 8

AKECHETA – 8

BOTANICAL – 8

DEFIANCE – 7 (trainer angle, but fitness unproven)

ASHARIBA – 7 (potential improver but slow starter)

WESTERTON – 7 (suited by setup, mark workable)

RATHGAR – 7 (Epsom record solid, trainer profitable)

WARDa JAMILA – 6

ECUREUIL SECRET – 6

FLYING FINN – 5 (outpaced in deeper field at Curragh, unlikely to dictate here)

SIMPLY SONDHEIM – 4 (pulled up last start, hard to assess)

SON OF MAN – 4 (in form but this is a significant class jump)



—

Each-Way Angles (13 runners):

AKECHETA – consistent, well-handicapped and shapes like this is his ideal trip.

WESTERTON – finishing well in recent starts and likely to be running on late.

RATHGAR – solid Epsom performer and consistent profile in similar company.



—

Private Tissue Estimate:

Mutaawid – 4/1

Have Secret – 6/1

Akecheta – 13/2

Botanical – 7/1

Defiance – 9/1

Ashariba – 11/1

Westerton – 12/1

Rathgar – 12/1

Warda Jamila – 14/1

Ecureuil Secret – 16/1

Flying Finn – 20/1

Simply Sondheim – 25/1

Son Of Man – 25/1



—

Summary:

A truly competitive renewal featuring a mix of upwardly mobile 4-5yos and seasoned handicappers. Mutawaid sets the standard on recent form, but with a strong pace likely and multiple front-runners engaged, closers like Have Secret, Akecheta, and Westerton could get their chance late. Keep an eye on the market for Defiance and Ashariba returning from layoffs, and note Varian’s race record. A contest where positioning and patience may prove just as important as ability.