1. Race Setup:
The pace forecast is even, and there’s no material draw bias over this trip at Uttoxeter. GILBERTINA and CLONDAW ROYALE typically race prominently, and they may be joined early by IKIGAI STAR. GHASHAM, on the other hand, is a type who often sits back and needs a pace to aim at—likely needing things to fall right. This doesn’t look like a race with aggressive pace, so mid-division or closer may be an advantage.

---

2. Key Contenders and Notes:

• BALTRAY – Unexposed hurdler from a yard in excellent recent form. Was yet to be asked for effort when falling on his last two starts. Could easily be competitive off 109 if jumping holds up. Goes well fresh and has a fair adjusted rating of 119. Worth noting he was turned over at short odds before but his Fontwell run has substance.
• LIPA K – Back to hurdling after patchy chasing form. Ran a personal best when runner-up at Bangor last time and looks to be on a fair mark off 109. He’s not always fluent at his obstacles but stays the trip and gets on well with Henry Brooke. Adjusted rating 119, trainer pair ticking along.
• IKIGAI STAR – Up 3 lb for winning a small-field handicap at Huntingdon where he was given a soft lead. May not get the same luxury here. Has two wins from five hurdle runs and still has some upside. Adjusted rating 116.
• GHASHAM – Good effort when second at Uttoxeter in January and shaped better than bare result at Fontwell when not seeing it out. Returned to the Flat last week and could bounce back now dropped back in trip. Top jockey booking in Sean Bowen (23% strike rate here). Adjusted rating 121.
• GILBERTINA – Prominent racer whose form has plateaued. Placed three times in small fields before being soundly beaten at Cheltenham in April. Needs a return to earlier form. Adjusted rating 120 but profile looks exposed.
• WINDSURFER – One win from six starts but has pulled up or faded in his last two handicap runs. Made a respectable return when 7th at Worcester, but others appeal more for win purposes. Adjusted rating 115.
• CLONDAW ROYALE – Won off this mark at Haydock in December but has regressed since. Poor in two recent starts, including when tailed off at Warwick. Trainer has no record of note in this race. Adjusted rating not given.
• GOLDEN IDENTITY – Lightly raced mare who returned from a breathing operation with a fair 5th at Chepstow. Tongue tie retained. She could be one to watch next time in lower company, but this might come too soon. Adjusted rating 110.

Hold-up risk: GHASHAM is the main “needs things to fall right” candidate given his come-from-behind style. BALTRAY and LIPA K have more tactical flexibility.

Trainer record in this race: No notable repeat winning trainers in recent renewals.

---

3. Runner Ratings (out of 10):

• BALTRAY – 7 (clear potential, fitness not an issue, jumping a risk)
• LIPA K – 7 (solid profile and back on song latest)
• IKIGAI STAR – 6 (needs lead or soft fractions, not a strong win last time)
• GHASHAM – 7 (dangerous off this mark if pace helps, top jockey)
• GILBERTINA – 5 (honest but exposed, ratings flatlined)
• WINDSURFER – 4 (little spark this term, best watched)
• CLONDAW ROYALE – 3 (out of form, hard to recommend)
• GOLDEN IDENTITY – 4 (may come forward again, but needs more)

Note: BALTRAY and CLONDAW ROYALE are both returning from layoffs of 55 and 90+ days respectively – market watch advised. GHASHAM and IKIGAI STAR both return within 2½ weeks—sprinting types can often maintain form well when turned out quickly.

---

4. Each-Way Angles:
With 8 runners declared, each-way terms apply. BALTRAY and GHASHAM look two of the more appealing place options, particularly if there’s late market support for BALTRAY or GHASHAM drifts again as he did last time.

---

5. Private Tissue Estimate:

• GHASHAM – 7/2
• BALTRAY – 4/1
• LIPA K – 9/2
• IKIGAI STAR – 6/1
• GILBERTINA – 9/1
• GOLDEN IDENTITY – 12/1
• WINDSURFER – 14/1
• CLONDAW ROYALE – 16/1

---

6. Summary:

This looks a tightly knit mid-tier handicap where BALTRAY may be the best value if his jumping holds up. LIPA K brings in the most recent solid form, while GHASHAM’s return to this trip is eye-catching with Sean Bowen aboard. IKIGAI STAR won last time but got a soft lead and might find life tougher here. GILBERTINA remains a consistent marker, but the ceiling on her ability looks firm. With several returning from layoffs or dipping in and out of form, market moves—particularly for BALTRAY and GHASHAM—will be telling.