Pace Forecast: Strong

1. Race Setup & Conditions
This is a low-grade mares’ handicap over just shy of three miles. The going is officially “Good (Good to Firm in places)”, and the pace is expected to be strong throughout. That should benefit those with proven stamina and who can sit off the early gallop without getting detached. Prominent racers usually fare better over this C&D, but the likely burn-up may compromise those who press too hard early. Hold-up types may need luck in running, especially those without prior success at the trip.


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2. Contenders, Dangers & Outsiders

Leading Contenders:

HEATHER HONEY – TFR 100 – On a sharp upward curve since handicapping. Won conditionals’ mares event at Newcastle before following up here despite errors. Progressive profile, already proven at trip, and remains well treated off 96.

NEWMILL GETAWAY – TFR 104 – Beaten favourite on stable debut but ran creditably in second. Steps back up in trip which should suit, and the booking of Jonathan Burke (44% SR on hurdle favourites) is a plus. First-time stable jockey angle.

KILLYBEGS JET LADY – TFR 101 – Solid efforts in northern handicaps, twice runner-up this spring. Stays well and in-form trainer (Lucinda Russell). Another who could benefit from a patient ride.

LAKE’S AVENTURINE – TFR 101 – Caused a surprise at Ludlow and beat CLOVER PASS with something in hand. Unexposed, trainer has positive stats when running just one on the card. Possible improver now confidence is up.


Main Dangers:

MOONSHINE GIRL – TFR 102 – Travelled well latest when falling 2 out at Southwell. That effort suggests improvement is there, though strong pace may catch her out if again racing prominently.

CLOVER PASS – TFR 101 – Solid second behind Lake’s Aventurine last time and shaped like further would suit. 2 lb wrong but has run to a consistent level in recent starts.

CHATSHOW HOST – TFR 100 – Bangor form figure suggests she handles the track. Respectable Uttoxeter run last time, but overall profile still moderate. Could outrun odds if the race collapses late.


Interesting Outsiders:

NOWYOUVEBINANDUNIT – TFR 103 – Caught the eye with strong late work in March but has failed to back that up. With strong pace expected, may be the type to benefit if held up cold, but stamina for full 3m is unproven.

HELLO MARIE – No TFR – Long layoff and three heavy defeats suggest she’s one for the notebook if market vibes shift late (121 days off – market watch advised).


Trends and Comments:

No previous runnings of this race to draw trainer trends from.

Timeform notes stress positive jockey angles (e.g. Burke on Newmill Getaway, James Best for Harriet Dickin’s sole runner).

Market advised for second-time handicap runners: Newmill Getaway, Lake’s Aventurine, and Moonshine Girl all qualify.



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3. Ratings out of 10

Horse Rating (/10)

Heather Honey 8
Newmill Getaway 8
Killybegs Jet Lady 7
Lake’s Aventurine 7
Clover Pass 6
Moonshine Girl 6
Chatshow Host 5
Nowyouvebinandunit 5
Pour The Wine 3
On We Go 3
Hello Marie 3 (watch market)
My Little Toni 2
Damekap 1


Note: Monitor market for support or drift on runners off >90 days: Hello Marie (121d), Damekap (127d), and Pour The Wine (43d). Second-runner bounce potential for Lake’s Aventurine, Newmill Getaway and Moonshine Girl.


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4. Each-Way Angles
With 13 runners, each-way terms (1/5 odds 3 places) apply. Viable each-way plays include KILLYBEGS JET LADY (consistent, well-handicapped) and LAKE’S AVENTURINE (trainer angles, recent winner, likely strong pace suit).


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5. Private Tissue Estimate (Guide Only)

Newmill Getaway – 3/1

Heather Honey – 4/1

Killybegs Jet Lady – 6/1

Lake’s Aventurine – 7/1

Clover Pass – 8/1

Moonshine Girl – 9/1

Chatshow Host – 14/1

Nowyouvebinandunit – 16/1

Pour The Wine – 25/1

Hello Marie – 25/1 (watch market)

On We Go – 33/1

My Little Toni – 50/1

Damekap – 100/1



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6. Summary
A trappy low-grade mares’ handicap where Newmill Getaway makes the most appeal stepped back up in trip with the stable jockey on board. Heather Honey is solid and progressive, while Killybegs Jet Lady and Lake’s Aventurine bring each-way value on recent form and trainer angles. Strong early pace is a key tactical factor—those needing cover or late runs may be better suited than usual for the track. Keep an eye on market support, particularly for those making their second run in handicaps or back from a layoff.