. Race Conditions & Pace/Draw Angles

This is a three-year-old only 0–75 handicap over 6f. With no draw bias declared and a weak pace forecast, the shape of the race suggests a tactical affair. Historically, prominent racers are often favoured over this trip at Thirsk, especially when the early gallop is below average. Hold-up horses may require luck in running if there’s no end-to-end pace.


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2. Contender Breakdown and Trends

Strongest Contenders:

MEDINILLA (Jack Channon / Daniel Tudhope) – [TFR 85, OR 73]
Progressive filly who returned from a break with a decisive win at Wolverhampton, following up a maiden win last backend. Has only raced at 6f. Timeform notes she’s improving and should cope with a return to turf. Trainer in form. Prominent style is ideal for this pace scenario.

MADDELINA (John & Sean Quinn / Jason Hart) – [TFR 84p, OR 73]
Lightly-raced and off the mark at Pontefract last time. The 6f trip looks a likely plus based on the way she finished over 5f. First-time in a handicap and bred to improve with racing. The weak pace forecast suits her prominent racing style. Responded gamely last time.


Main Dangers:

LORNA B (Seb Spencer / Dale Swift) – [TFR 80p, OR 72]
AW maiden winner (6f), best effort to date. Hampered late on last time and remains with potential now switched to turf handicaps. Could go forward based on past tactics, which would help in this tactical scenario.

MARRY THE NIGHT (Tim Easterby / Duran Fentiman) – [TFR 83, OR 62]
Placed in nurseries last season and has form over 6–7f. Seasonal return was underwhelming but he’s entitled to come on for the run. Acts on soft ground and cheekpieces retained. Might be a hold-up type needing luck in a muddling pace.


Interesting Outsiders:

LUNAR FORCE (Tim Easterby / S B Kirrane) – [TFR 83, OR 63]
Raced only a week apart in May and may have run flat last time. Best efforts are over 5f but not disgraced at 6f last year. One to note if bouncing back quickly.

COMMANDER ATKINSON (Brian Ellison / Ben Robinson) – [TFR 79, OR 67]
Gelded since last season and stepped up on his reappearance when third in a Beverley seller. Would prefer a stronger pace than forecast.


Trends / Trainer Notes:

No trainer has won this specific division of the race more than once in recent renewals. Notably, recent winners include horses with just one or two prior career runs, and some big-priced surprises (e.g. 50/1 in 2022, 40/1 in 2021), making early-career types worth attention.

Watch for market strength in Maddelina (2nd start) and Haazeez, both lightly raced types with something to prove or improve.



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3. Runner Ratings out of 10

Medinilla – 8

Maddelina – 8

Lorna B – 7

Marry The Night – 6.5

Lunar Force – 6

Two Shoes – 5.5

Commander Atkinson – 5.5

Haazeez – 5

Mayberry Moon – 4


> Market watch advised for:



Maddelina (2nd career start – progression expected if well-backed)

Haazeez (returning off a 46-day break and gelded prior to reappearance)

Two Shoes (down markedly in grade from York)



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4. Each-Way Angles (9 runners)

Lorna B: Handicap debutant with excuses last time, potentially overpriced.

Marry The Night: Low draw, more than capable of nicking a place off 62 if improving for his reappearance.



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5. Private Tissue Estimate

Medinilla – 9/4

Maddelina – 5/2

Lorna B – 6/1

Marry The Night – 9/1

Lunar Force – 10/1

Commander Atkinson – 14/1

Two Shoes – 14/1

Haazeez – 16/1

Mayberry Moon – 25/1



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6. Summary

This looks a straightforward clash between Medinilla, who is improving rapidly and may control the race near the front, and Maddelina, who shaped with promise on both starts and should appreciate 6f. Lorna B and Marry The Night both have potential to get involved at bigger prices, especially given their prior nursery/maiden profiles. With a steady pace expected, positioning will be key, and those able to race close up—particularly Medinilla and Maddelina—look best suited. Keep an eye on any market support for second-time starters or horses coming back off breaks.