Pace/Draw Analysis:
The race is expected to be run at an end-to-end gallop with multiple habitual trailblazers, including Democracy Dilemma, Tees Spirit, Marching Mac, Blind Beggar, and The Bell Conductor. Historically, pace can often be more decisive than stall position in this race, though wide-drawn closers need luck and timing. With the pace set to be relentless, hold-up horses such as Jer Batt and Existent will need gaps to open late, particularly in a large field.


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Strongest Contenders

Jer Batt (David & Nicola Barron / Oisin Murphy) – Rating: 121
Consistent and effective at 5f. Ran with credit at Chester despite being further back than ideal; form with American Affair is solid. Murphy’s 34% strike rate on favourites is noted. Will be finishing strongly if things fall right.

JM Jungle (John & Sean Quinn / Jason Hart) – Rating: 116
In excellent nick, stringing together placed efforts in warm York contests. Reliable and tactically versatile, though one-paced under pressure. Runner-up to Habooba last time out.

Spartan Arrow (Archie Watson / Hollie Doyle) – Rating: 118
Wide-margin Epsom scorer two runs back, below form at York but might prefer a sharper track. Proven at course, races on the pace, and clearly retains ability.

Dream Composer (James Evans / Joe Leavy) – Rating: 119
Won this race in 2024. Below form at Chester but solid second at Pontefract before that. Clearly handles the track and capable in cavalry charges. No ground concerns.

Democracy Dilemma (Robert Cowell / Rossa Ryan) – Rating: 116
Strong front-runner and Beverley listed scorer. May find the extremes of pace a negative with multiple other pace angles, but his overall profile fits the type to go well if handling early pressure.



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Main Dangers

Vintage Clarets (Richard Fahey / Warren Fentiman) – Rating: 120
Shaped well in stronger York contests, finishing close behind American Affair. Goes well on softer ground and has a touch of class; sometimes slowly away.

Fair Wind (Owen Burrows / David Probert) – Rating: 118§
Lightly raced, Ascot winner last summer. Faded on return after 9 months off but may come on for that. Trainer 21% with sprinters and in mid-season. Risk of refusal in profile; market check essential.

Tees Spirit (Adrian Nicholls / Jack Nicholls) – Rating: 118
Won this race in 2022 off a lower mark. Badly hampered last time at York. Capable on his day and fits profile of previous winners bouncing back after a poor run.

Existent (Stuart Williams / Rose Dawes) – Rating: 118§
Second on last four starts, including over C&D in April behind Spartan Arrow. Could find race unfolding to suit, but repeatedly finds one too good.



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Interesting Outsiders

Nogo’s Dream (Richard Hughes / S.D. Bowen) – Rating: 112§
In-form stable. Two wins and a third from last three starts, though most form on AW. Has form on turf and is resilient despite some headgear use. Possibly unexposed at this level on grass.

Blind Beggar (Michael Appleby / Kiely-Marshall) – Rating: 117
On the upgrade lately with solid recent form at Carlisle and Ascot. Not dismissed at big odds from low weight, especially if securing a good early position.



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Notable Trainer Records / Trends

Past Winners: Tees Spirit (2022) and Dream Composer (2024) reappear. No trainer dominates this race historically.

Profile Trends:

8 of the last 10 winners were rated 90–100

Front-runners have a strong historical record, though a burn-up can see closers like Jer Batt and Existent swoop

Repeat winners not uncommon (Dream Composer bids to join that club)




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Hold-Up Risk (Luck Needed)

Jer Batt – Needs strong gallop and a clear run

Existent – Strong finisher but often denied

Dream Composer – Tends to track leaders but will want cover

Fair Wind – Can be slowly away

Vintage Clarets – Similar risk, though handy sit possible if breaking well



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Ratings (Out of 10)

Horse Rating

Jer Batt 9
JM Jungle 8
Dream Composer 8
Spartan Arrow 8
Democracy Dilemma 7
Vintage Clarets 7
Fair Wind 7
Tees Spirit 7
Existent 7
Desert Cop 6
Rhythm N Hooves 6
Nogo’s Dream 6
Blind Beggar 6
Michaela’s Boy 6
Marching Mac 5
The Bell Conductor 5
Ziggy’s Missile 5
One Night Stand 4
Clarendon House 4


> Market Watch Advice:



Fair Wind (returning from 90+ days) – market key

Desert Cop – off 92 days after Bahrain success

Jer Batt – 2nd run this season; has been backed on both starts

Marching Mac and One Night Stand – returning from breaks, signs of regression


> In-Form Returners:



Nogo’s Dream – runs 6 days after latest solid AW third

Rhythm N Hooves – 19 days turnaround, stable in fair nick



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Each-Way Angles (8+ runners)

Jer Batt – Likely to be played late, strong form lines, handles pace

Tees Spirit – Profile fits; bounce back from troubled run likely

Dream Composer – Proven over C&D, still competitively rated

Vintage Clarets – Strong closer on soft ground, lurks off a fair mark

Nogo’s Dream – Lightly raced turf profile, hard fit, possible to sneak a place



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Private Tissue Estimate

Jer Batt – 6/1

JM Jungle – 13/2

Dream Composer – 9/1

Spartan Arrow – 10/1

Existent – 10/1

Tees Spirit – 12/1

Fair Wind – 14/1

Democracy Dilemma – 14/1

Vintage Clarets – 14/1

Nogo’s Dream – 16/1

Others – 20/1+



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Summary

A typically ferocious renewal of the Dash where race setup and timing will be critical. Jer Batt appeals most with Oisin Murphy back aboard and the promise of a searing gallop setting it up. JM Jungle remains solid and honest, while Dream Composer and Tees Spirit bring track form and past success to the table. Watch the market for Fair Wind and Desert Cop, while Nogo’s Dream offers place claims from a featherweight. In a 19-runner heritage sprint, luck, draw position, and race position at halfway could easily tilt the balance.