17:40 EPSOM – JRA TOKYO TROPHY HANDICAP (Class 2) (0–105), 6f 3y, 4yo+, Good to Soft (Good in places), 13 declared

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1. Race Conditions & Pace/Draw Outlook
This is a competitive Class 2 6f handicap for older horses, run on Epsom’s turning sprint track. The going is described as good to soft, good in places, which tends to neutralise bias somewhat, though high draws are historically not favoured when ground is soft.
The pace forecast is very strong, which could set things up for closers if the field overdoes it early. Front-runners such as Get It and possibly Purest Time will be pressing on, which may suit hold-up horses like Eye Of Dubai, Solar Acclaim, and Rousing Encore, though they will still need luck in running on this turning downhill course.




2. Strongest Contenders, Dangers, and Outsiders

CIRCE (Adjusted Rating 117) – Strong contender. Progressive filly from an in-form stable (Hannon). She’s done it the hard way from poor positions at Windsor and Newmarket, showing tenacity and a good turn of foot. Handles all ground and has race fitness, tactics adaptable.

GET IT (116) – Danger if allowed to dominate. Landed the Stewards’ Cup in 2024 and won at Ascot last time off a strong pace. Usually blasts off in front and goes well fresh. Could be vulnerable to closers if overhauled early.

SONDAD (114) – Another in-form sprinter. Back-to-back winner at Ascot and Southwell, improving with the visor on. Will be on the premises if that headgear effect holds, but hasn’t tackled this undulating track yet.

EYE OF DUBAI (118) – Not seen to best effect last time. Solid Doncaster form through Strike Red and Solar Acclaim. Will need cover and a tow into it, but suited by conditions and strong pace.

DRAMA (112) – Quirky sort but has ability. Useful AW wins this year, and should be suited by strong pace, but hasn’t always convinced on turf (15L loss at Newcastle in April). Tactically tricky.

ROUSING ENCORE (114) – Interesting outsider. Won well at York last time from the back under similar ground. Handles a range of goings and can come late off a burn-up. Trainer Ruth Carr had this one peaking lately.

SOLAR ACLAIM (117) – Doncaster form ties in with Eye Of Dubai. Has a class edge but fitness was queried on reappearance. Has won on soft and may be underestimated if putting that pipe-opener behind him.

BADRI (115) – Last year’s winner, now lower in the weights. Trainer in form. Ground fine, may be under the radar after a few modest AW runs.

PUREST TIME (109) – Still finding feet since switch from France. One run back from long layoff; needs more but not disgraced at Chester.

*TWILIGHT JET (109?) – Listed class previously, but major questions now. Run style and current wellbeing look suspect after heavy defeats.

ORNE (110) – Has shown nothing in handicaps since leaving Gosden. Cold yard, drawn wide, and likely needs drop in grade.

STRIKE RED (114) – Form sound if unspectacular this year. Fair runs on turf and AW, but may be better suited by slower ground and more galloping track.

INTERVENTION (113) – Bit of a character. Can go well when in the mood and did at Brighton, but rarely strings strong turf efforts together.


Race Trends / Trainer Stats:

Michael Herrington won this in 2023 with Badri, who reappears.

Ian Williams has trained two previous winners (sends Purest Time).

Trainer form notable: Julie Camacho (Solar Acclaim), Richard Hannon (Circe), Ruth Carr (Rousing Encore), James Ferguson (Drama), and the Baker yard (Get It) all warm or better.





3. Runner Ratings out of 10 (based on adjusted ratings, profile, trainer form, pace/draw, recent efforts):

Horse Rating (/10) Note

Circe 8.5 Progressive, tactically sound, well drawn
Get It 8 Dangerous if left alone; strong win last time
Eye Of Dubai 8 Needs luck in running; ideal pace setup
Sondad 7.5 Thriving with visor, needs to translate to this track
Rousing Encore 7.5 Could pounce late again in same conditions
Solar Aclaim 7 On a retrieval mission; profile solid for cut
Drama 7 Capable, but inconsistent turf record
Strike Red 6.5 Reliable type but not easy to win with
Badri 6.5 Course form, last year’s winner, lurking
Intervention 6 Often finds one too good, inconsistent
Purest Time 5.5 Needs more; one to watch next time
Orne 4 Cold yard, out of form
Twilight Jet 3.5 Formerly useful but questions over attitude


Note: Watch the market closely for Badri (returning here again), Solar Aclaim (2nd run back), and any late support for Twilight Jet or Purest Time if fitness confidence grows.




4. Each-Way Angles (13 runners):

ROUSING ENCORE – Peaked last time, strong late run type, good ground ideal.

SOLAR ACLAIM – If back to Doncaster form, overpriced relative to peak adjusted figure.

STRIKE RED – Ground/trip fine, consistent profile, drawn middle. Can sneak into frame.





5. Private Tissue Estimate (Win only):

Circe – 9/2

Eye Of Dubai – 11/2

Get It – 6/1

Sondad – 7/1

Rousing Encore – 8/1

Drama – 10/1

Solar Aclaim – 10/1

Strike Red – 12/1

Badri – 14/1

Intervention – 20/1

Twilight Jet – 28/1

Orne – 33/1

Purest Time – 40/1





Summary:
A competitive sprint with a hot pace predicted, which should bring closers like Circe and Eye Of Dubai right into the mix. Get It is the clear front-runner danger if left alone, but the setup favours stalkers. Rousing Encore and Solar Aclaim appeal for place value. Market support for comeback runners and sprinters returning within 2 weeks should be watched closely. Circe is the most upwardly mobile profile in the field.

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