Draw Bias: No clear draw bias | Pace Forecast: Even
Pace Note: At this trip on turf at Lingfield, those racing prominently are typically favoured. With no indication of strong pace, prominent types may control the race tempo.


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Strongest Contenders

MOMAER (IRE) – Consistent recent efforts including a solid second at Windsor and third at Goodwood (6f, Gd/Sft) earlier this week. Rated 82 by Timeform, she often starts slowly and will need gaps to open late. That said, she’s been holding her form and has placed off higher marks. Needs luck in running but leading contender on adjusted figures. Hold-up type.

LAHINA BAY (IRE) – Lightly campaigned this season. Third here in January and a close fourth next time at Kempton in a stronger race. Timeform 81 rating and now down to a good mark. Regularly ridden forward and Finley Marsh is a positive booking. Could build on earlier form if ready after 136 days off. Watch the market closely given the layoff and trainer’s quiet spell.

FIRST COMPANY (IRE) – Got the run of the race at Carlisle last time in an amateurs’ event (soft ground) and made all. That was a lesser grade, and this will demand more. Tends to lead, so could be well suited by today’s pace setup, but looks vulnerable if pressured early. Timeform rating of 77.


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Main Dangers

GEMINI STAR (IRE) – Was disappointing at Doncaster last time but had shaped nicely before that at Leicester when a close third. Timeform 80. Trainer Alice Haynes is going well, and this mare has the ability to bounce back. Often races just off the pace, so should be well positioned in an evenly run race.

KALIK (IRE) – Fifth at Chelmsford last time when going off too hard; that was a big step forward. Has form on turf and polytrack. Trainer form is cold, but recent effort was promising and today’s more even gallop could suit. Timeform 78.


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Interesting Outsiders

FAI FAI – Dual turf winner in 2024. Better than form figures suggest and was 12 lb out of the handicap when runner-up at Lingfield in December. Recent runs have been disappointing but has had a wind op and now gets back on turf. Tongue tie and hood retained. Watch for any money as trainer’s horses often go unbacked unless fancied.

TILSWORTH TURF – Two-time winner in 2024 but has been well beaten in all starts since. Has won here and from this sort of mark in the past. Trainer has a £56 level stakes profit with horses returning from breaks. May need this but not completely ruled out if supported.

THE BITTER MOOSE (IRE) – Best form came for Hugo Palmer in 2023. Now with a new yard and tailed off all three starts this season. Looks out of sorts and temperament remains under suspicion.


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Trainer Trends & Timeform Profile Notes

Jack Morland (Momaer) and Alice Haynes (Gemini Star) have no past winners in this race, but both runners are well-handicapped and come from respected yards.

J. R. Jenkins (Tilsworth Turf) has profitable stats with horses returning from breaks.

Rachel Cook & John Bridger (Lahina Bay) and Michael Keady (Kalik) are both in cold spells currently.

No trainer has won this specific race before, per Timeform’s historical data.



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Runner Ratings out of 10

Horse Rating

MOMAER 8
LAHINA BAY 7
GEMINI STAR 6.5
FIRST COMPANY 6
KALIK 6
FAI FAI 5.5
TILSWORTH TURF 4.5
THE BITTER MOOSE 3


Note: Lahina Bay (136 days) and Fai Fai (120 days) both return from layoffs of 90+ days – market check essential.


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Each-Way Angles (8 runners)

KALIK could sneak a place if reproducing Chelmsford effort. Solid each-way value if drifting to double-figure odds.

GEMINI STAR may outrun odds if bouncing back to Leicester form. Rider’s 3lb claim helps.

FAI FAI, if backed, could be interesting with blinkers retained and back in a winnable 0–68.



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Private Tissue Estimate (100% book)

MOMAER – 5/2

LAHINA BAY – 4/1

GEMINI STAR – 11/2

FIRST COMPANY – 6/1

KALIK – 7/1

FAI FAI – 12/1

TILSWORTH TURF – 20/1

THE BITTER MOOSE – 25/1



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Summary

Momaer sets the standard on recent turf form but will need luck given her slow starts. Lahina Bay returns from a break and rates a strong danger if ready. Gemini Star and Kalik could offer value as each-way plays, with the latter possibly well suited by today’s pace setup. Fai Fai is a lurker if the market speaks positively. Keep a close eye on betting for those off layoffs – in particular Lahina Bay.