Pace Forecast: Strong
Draw Bias: Favours middle

Pace/Draw Notes:
A strongly run race is expected, which should suit those held up off the pace, especially from middle draws. The likes of Akkadian Thunder and Billyjoh could be well served if settling into a mid-to-rear position before running on. Superposition and Apotheosis may be closer to the pace but possess finishing speed.


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Strongest Contenders

Two Tribes – 108
Has returned with two solid placed efforts in highly competitive York and Newmarket 6f handicaps. Now steps back up to 7f, which is likely to suit, having finished well off strong gallops. Drawn wide but with hold-up tactics and pace on, that may not be a barrier. Races off the same mark again and looks to be peaking.

Superposition – 108+
Has taken off since a breathing op, producing a demolition job at Kempton over a mile last time. Yet to reproduce that form on turf, but the manner of recent wins suggests a very well-handicapped horse still. If adapting to turf, he’s a big player.

Akkadian Thunder – 110
Course and distance winner, has done well at Doncaster before and shaped better than the bare result at Ascot last time when given too much to do. Strong pace will suit and he can go close if finding cover early.

Apotheosis – 106
Quirky type but useful on his day and seems reliable at 7f. Ran well last time at Goodwood when finishing off nicely from the rear. Big-field handicap scenario suits him and he should be considered among the shortlist.

Billyjoh – 109
Creditable third at Leicester latest, having been best work late. Proven in big-field scenarios, including a fine 2024 effort at Royal Ascot. Drying ground and return to 7f look positives. Respected.



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Main Dangers

Eldrickjones – 108
Running very well for the Roger Fell yard and quickly turned out after a big effort in a York 22-runner handicap. Has a win at Newcastle and strong second off just a 5-day turnaround. Goes well in the spring and has rediscovered form.

Warm Spell – 107
Good second at Doncaster earlier in the spring and effort best excused at Ascot when poorly placed. Could be thereabouts if reproducing that Doncaster form.

Rhythm Master – 107
Back on song with a close third at Thirsk. Has a touch of class at this level and stays this trip well. Capable if securing a clean run.



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Interesting Outsiders

Glenfinnan – 107
Goes well over 6f/7f, though below form of late. Michael Dods has a fair record with sole runners at a meeting. Chance if recapturing summer 2024 form.

Havana Blue – 106
Returns off 266 days and has undergone another breathing op. Last seen running well in a competitive Leopardstown handicap. One for market watchers.

Grand Traverse – 102
Off over a year. Has won fresh before and Archie Watson’s horses off long layoffs have shown profit. Likely to need the run but not ruled out on past figures.



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Layoff/Positioning/Trainer Notes

Hold-up types needing luck: Akkadian Thunder, Billyjoh, Apotheosis, Two Tribes, Rock Walk

Runners off >90 days: Havana Blue, Grand Traverse, Sailthisshipalone

Past race trainer winners: No repeat-winning trainers in the last 5 years, though O’Meara (Akkadian Thunder) and Appleby (Billyjoh) have had strong 7f handicap form at Doncaster in general.



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Ratings out of 10

Horse Rating

Two Tribes 8
Superposition 8
Akkadian Thunder 8
Billyjoh 7
Apotheosis 7
Eldrickjones 7
Rhythm Master 6
Warm Spell 6
Glenfinnan 5
Lord Bertie 5
Havana Blue 5
Cruyff Turn 5
Rock Walk 4
Grand Traverse 4
Sailthisshipalone 4


Note: Market watching strongly advised for Havana Blue and Grand Traverse (off >250 days), and for any strong moves on Superposition (turf query) or Two Tribes (expensive to follow but with momentum).


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Each-Way Angles (15 runners)

Billyjoh – Suited by pace and trip, late closer with good big-field record.

Eldrickjones – Fast turnaround but in-form and trainer red hot.

Apotheosis – Runs well in competitive scenarios, if settling early.



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Private Tissue Estimate

1. Two Tribes – 5/1


2. Superposition – 6/1


3. Akkadian Thunder – 13/2


4. Billyjoh – 7/1


5. Apotheosis – 7/1


6. Eldrickjones – 8/1


7. Rhythm Master – 12/1


8. Warm Spell – 14/1


9. Havana Blue – 16/1


10. Glenfinnan – 16/1


11. Lord Bertie – 20/1


12. Cruyff Turn – 20/1


13. Grand Traverse – 25/1


14. Rock Walk – 33/1


15. Sailthisshipalone – 40/1




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Summary

This is a well-contested 7f handicap with a strong pace expected to favour closers. Two Tribes is well drawn to track the pace and holds solid recent form, while Superposition brings potential upside if translating recent all-weather efforts to turf. Akkadian Thunder and Apotheosis have been eye-catchers of late and shape like live threats, with Billyjoh and Eldrickjones both strong each-way plays in the context of pace and current wellbeing. Market support or drifts for long-absentees like Havana Blue and Grand Traverse should be monitored closely.