Pace Angle: With a field of 14 pace tactics may prove more influential than positioning. The pace is forecast to be even, but the track stats suggest prominent racers are not generally favoured over this trip at Perth. As such, hold-up horses may struggle unless the race collapses late. Cage Rattler may find himself poorly positioned if dropped out again, while Away She Goes is better suited to current pace expectations having adopted a front-running role lately.


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Strongest Contenders

CHICHESTER – [Rating: 105p] Well-bred and a former smart Flat horse (up to 105 in his pomp). Though beaten 27½ lengths on return at this track, he raced keenly and tired before a significant error two out. He switches to handicaps here and is entitled to come on a fair bit for the run. Retains upside in this grade.

AWAY SHE GOES – [104] On the up and has benefitted from positive tactics. Won a modest mares’ event at Kelso before doing too much too soon when third in a stronger field. Can front run again and the pace setup will suit.

JET PATROL – [106] Shaped as if still in good heart last time, fourth at Kelso after chasing the leader. Has had a breathing operation and looks consistent within his grade. Headstrong type but handled more patiently lately.

IVYNATOR – [102] Lightly raced and best effort for some time when second to Follow Charlie off a break last time (80/1). Just 3 lb wrong here and enters calculations based on that improved showing.



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Main Dangers

CAGE RATTLER – [104] Unreliable but bounced back when third at Hexham. Not well suited by a track that doesn’t reward patient tactics, but has been relatively consistent in modest events this spring.

GONNINO – [104] Open to improvement now handicapping, having finished a decent second to The Last Cloud here last time in maiden company. Light profile and likely has more to come.



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Interesting Outsiders

BRINGSTY – [102+] Fair on the Flat and showed some promise when switched back to turf this spring. First start back over hurdles since last autumn and represents a stable that pops up with big-priced runners in weak races.

WILLY NILLY – [103] One-time useful Flat horse but has lost his way. Can race off a light weight and may be worth watching for support on return from 263 days off.



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Trainer Trends / Comments

Lucinda Russell (CHICHESTER) has her runners going well and is often effective with horses in early handicap starts.

Noel C. Kelly (GARRICK PAINTER, BRINGSTY) has sent a few over recently with limited success but not without the odd place run at long odds.

Timeform flags both CHICHESTER and JET PATROL as being previously well backed in-running. CHICHESTER traded at <50% of BSP last time despite a poor finish.



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Hold-up Types Needing Luck

CAGE RATTLER – Often dropped out and vulnerable to how race develops.

JET PATROL – Held up headstrong sort, can run into traffic.

IVYNATOR – Not always ridden forcefully but did track pace last time, so tactics worth monitoring again.



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Runner Ratings out of 10

Horse Rating

CHICHESTER 8
AWAY SHE GOES 8
JET PATROL 7
IVYNATOR 7
CAGE RATTLER 6
GONNINO 6
BRINGSTY 6
SHADOWFAX OF ROHAN 5
WILLY NILLY 5
ROYAL CREEK 4
POPA RICH 3
GARRICK PAINTER 2
INOUE 2
TOP FLIGHT CENTURY 2


⚠ Market Watch:
Keep a close eye on CHICHESTER (handicap debut and lightly raced), GONNINO (2nd start in a handicap), and WILLY NILLY (263-day layoff). Any shortening would be notable, particularly in a race of this depth. Watch also for money on IVYNATOR after a surprise placed effort.


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Each-Way Angles (14 runners)

BRINGSTY – Returned to form on the Flat; potentially well handicapped over hurdles.

IVYNATOR – Second off a long break and now races off a low mark again.

CAGE RATTLER – Can place if race falls apart in front but needs pace help.



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Private Tissue (100%)

CHICHESTER – 4/1

AWAY SHE GOES – 9/2

JET PATROL – 6/1

IVYNATOR – 7/1

GONNINO – 8/1

CAGE RATTLER – 9/1

BRINGSTY – 12/1

SHADOWFAX OF ROHAN – 14/1

WILLY NILLY – 16/1

ROYAL CREEK – 20/1

POPA RICH – 25/1

GARRICK PAINTER – 40/1

INOUE – 40/1

TOP FLIGHT CENTURY – 50/1



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Summary

This is a wide-open 0–95 novice handicap in which CHICHESTER looks interesting now entering handicaps off a reasonable mark. He should strip fitter for his return. AWAY SHE GOES is tactically well positioned and still improving. JET PATROL and IVYNATOR are others in form, while GONNINO and BRINGSTY are not without place chances. The market should be watched carefully, particularly for those returning from breaks or showing in-hand promise on recent reappearances.