Pace Forecast: Strong
This is expected to be run at a notably strong pace, with front-runners such as Queenofthelodge and Hands On likely to contribute to a solid gallop. With hold-up types historically at a disadvantage in strongly-run handicaps on drying ground at Punchestown, prominent or midfield runners with stamina reserves are likely to be favoured.


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Contenders and Angles

Strongest Contenders

QUEENOFTHELODGE (TFR 128) continues to progress, landing a Downpatrick mares’ handicap last time and placing consistently prior. She races prominently, stays this far, and her trainer S. Curling has an excellent single-runner record (Timeform Smart Stat: +£67.49 LSP in hurdles when only runner on the card).

WARM IN GOREY (TFR 131) won this race in 2023 and returns to hurdles after a pipe-opener over fences. That run should bring him on, and he is now back on a competitive mark.

ROSE BOUM (TFR 127) comes here on the back of her best career effort at Wexford, staying on well in blinkers. Has shaped like 2m4f would suit and looks progressive for a trainer in decent form.

LOCKED BOX (TFR 128) was pulled up quickly after an impressive Fairyhouse win in April. Capable on form, but that recent blowout casts slight doubts. Still early in his development, and could bounce back.


Main Dangers

COSTANUCI (TFR 129) is consistent, has form at the track, and is 3lb lower than when third in a Galway handicap last summer. Comes off a break but has been placed after absences before.

TIME MARCHES ON (TFR 129) has back-form in chases and tends to keep on late; while better over further, a strong gallop here could bring him into it late.


Interesting Outsiders

HANDS ON (TFR 127) tends to race handily and trades short in-running. He shaped as though needing his return in April after 10 months off. Likely to be sharper now and his past win at Cork reads well.

DIVILABOTHER (TFR 128) is consistent at this level and had excuses last time when too free. She placed three times last season and is another who could run into a place.

LONG GONE (TFR 127) was lame last time but won nicely at Tramore before that. If back to health, she could be well-handicapped.


Trainers with Past Wins

P. J. Rothwell (trainer of Warm In Gorey, Harry’s Dream, and Woodstream Lad) won this race in 2023 and also has solid recent form.

No other trainer represented here has won this race in the past four years.


Hold-Up Risk Horses

TULLYVEERY LAD, TIME MARCHES ON, and DIVILABOTHER tend to be held up, and may require luck in running off the strong gallop, though the pace should help bring them into the race if it collapses late.



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Runner Ratings (Out of 10)

> Taking into account adjusted Timeform ratings, profile consistency, pace positioning, and trainer/jockey trends. Ratings assume no significant market drift on the day.



QUEENOFTHELODGE – 8

WARM IN GOREY – 7.5

ROSE BOUM – 7.5

COSTANUCI – 7

LOCKED BOX – 7

TIME MARCHES ON – 6.5

HANDS ON – 6.5

DIVILABOTHER – 6.5

LONG GONE – 6

TULLYVEERY LAD – 5.5

YOUR HONOR – 5

WOODSTREAM LAD – 5

HARRY’S DREAM – 4.5

IN FOR THE NIGHT – 4.5

RUN FOR HARRY – 3.5


Note: Watch the market closely for significant support or drift on those returning from 200+ day layoffs: Costanuci, Time Marches On, Tullyveery Lad. Second-time runners after long breaks like Hands On are often sharper—market support would be a notable pointer.


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Each-Way Angles (15 runners declared)

QUEENOFTHELODGE – progressive, well-positioned in likely pace scenario, and strong track form.

ROSE BOUM – strong finish last time and unexposed at this trip.

COSTANUCI – solid track record and capable fresh.

HANDS ON – could be sharper for reappearance, races handy, and trades strongly in-play.



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Private Tissue Estimate (100% book)

QUEENOFTHELODGE – 5/1

WARM IN GOREY – 6/1

ROSE BOUM – 13/2

COSTANUCI – 8/1

LOCKED BOX – 9/1

HANDS ON – 10/1

TIME MARCHES ON – 10/1

DIVILABOTHER – 11/1

LONG GONE – 12/1

TULLYVEERY LAD – 14/1

YOUR HONOR – 16/1

WOODSTREAM LAD – 16/1

HARRY’S DREAM – 20/1

IN FOR THE NIGHT – 20/1

RUN FOR HARRY – 50/1



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Summary

A strongly-run handicap where race position and recent freshness could prove key. Queenofthelodge looks the right type with a sound profile and steady progress, while Warm In Gorey, back over hurdles and a past winner of the race, is respected. Rose Boum and Costanuci offer solid each-way value in a field where several come in with something to prove after breaks or below-par efforts. Watch the market for second-up runners like Hands On and those returning from long layoffs who may show signs of revival.